Will WTI crude break above $105 or fall below $95 in September?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude oil is trading strongly above $103, approaching the $105 threshold, with the probability of falling below $95 revised down based on news evidence.; The latest direct news evidence shows WTI crude oil futures climbing continuously during the Asian session on September 15, reaching an intraday high of $103.89 and holding firmly above $103. This price level is just a step away from breaking through $105 and far above $95. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran's denial of talks with the U.S. and a tanker explosion near the Strait of Hormuz, provide strong upward momentum for oil prices. In terms of probabilities, the likelihood of hitting $105 stands at 76.8%, unchanged from the baseline likelihood with no news evidence adjustment. The probability of falling below $95 is 59%, down 5 percentage points from the 64% baseline likelihood, with a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points. This reflects that with prices above $103 and strong upward momentum, a decline of over 8% to reach $95 is highly unlikely without a major negative catalyst. The probability of falling below $90 is 40.6%, and the probability of hitting $130 is 5.4%, both with no news evidence adjustment.
2. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude oil experienced sharp intraday swings, plunging from a high of $103.89 to $97.63, weakening momentum for a breakout above $105 and significantly raising the risk of a drop below $95 based on the latest price evidence.; The latest direct news evidence shows WTI crude oil futures experienced a sharp reversal during the Asian session on September 15. After touching a high of $103.89 earlier in the day, prices quickly erased gains and turned negative, falling to $101.32 and then $97.63. This rapid reversal from near the $105 threshold to below $98 severely undermines the case for a near-term breakout above $105. Regarding probabilities, the final likelihood for breaking above $105 is 60.6%, down 16.2 percentage points from the previous 76.8%. The baseline likelihood is 65.6%, with a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points, as the latest price plunge contradicts the bullish target. The final likelihood for falling below $95 is 76.5%, up 17.5 percentage points from the previous 59%. The baseline likelihood is 71.5%, with a news evidence adjustment of +5 percentage points, as the intraday low of $97.63 is now dangerously close to the $95 threshold amid strong downward momentum. Additionally, the final likelihood for falling below $90 is 44%, and for breaking above $130 is 5.4%, both with no news evidence adjustment.
3. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude reversed sharply from a high of $103.89, breaking below $98 intraday, weakening momentum for a breakout above $105, while the baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 edged down as the market priced in cautious expectations for extreme swings.; The news evidence this period shows a sharp reversal in WTI crude oil prices during the Asian session on September 15. Prices surged to a high of $103.89 in early trading, but then rapidly gave up gains and turned negative, falling to $101.32 and then $97.63. This swift reversal from near the $105 threshold to below $98 directly undermined the near-term case for a breakout above $105. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for breaking above $105 was 68.7%, but given the latest price plunge contradicts that target, a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points is applied, resulting in a final probability of 63.6%, up 3.0 percentage points from the previous 60.6%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 was 71%, with no additional news evidence adjustment this period, resulting in a final probability of 71%, down 5.5 percentage points from the previous 76.5%. The final probability for a drop below $90 is 44%, up 0.1 percentage points. The final probability for a break above $130 is 5.3%, down 0.1 percentage points.
4. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude experienced a roller-coaster session in Asia, surging to $103.89 before reversing sharply and breaking below $98 intraday, quickly dousing momentum for a breakout above $105 while simultaneously easing the pressure for a drop below $95.; The news evidence in this period fully captured a dramatic reversal in WTI crude during the September 15 Asian session. Early trading extended the bullish momentum, with prices surging to a high of $103.89, approaching the $105 threshold. However, the rally failed to hold, and prices subsequently gave up all gains and turned negative, falling to $101.32 and then $97.63. This rapid reversal from challenging a high to breaking below $98 directly weakened the near-term basis for a breakout above $105, while also reducing the immediate pressure for a deep correction below $95. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for breaking above $105 is 74.5%, but given the latest price collapse runs counter to that target, a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points is applied, resulting in a final probability of 69.5%, up 5.8 pp from the previous 63.6%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 is 67.5%. Although prices briefly dipped below $98, a sustained downward trend has not been established, and the intraday reversal has sapped the momentum for a one-sided sell-off, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 67.5%, down 3.5 pp from the previous 71%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $90 is 42.4%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 42.4%, down 1.7 pp from the previous 44%. The baseline likelihood for breaking above $130 is 5.2%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 5.2%, down 0.1 pp from the previous 5.3%.
5. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude surged to $103.89 in Asia before a sharp reversal pushed it below $98, quickly dousing momentum for a breakout above $105 while simultaneously easing the pressure for a drop below $95.; This period's news evidence fully captures WTI's dramatic reversal during the September 15 Asian session. Early trading extended the rally, pushing prices to a high of $103.89, within striking distance of the $105 mark. The advance proved unsustainable, however, as crude gave back all its gains and turned negative, falling to $101.32 and then $97.63. This rapid swing from a near-breakout to a drop below $98 directly undermines the near-term case for a surge above $105, while also reducing the urgency around a deeper correction below $95. On the probabilities, the baseline likelihood for hitting $105 is 82.8%, but the latest price collapse runs counter to that target, warranting a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points for a final probability of 77.8%, up 8.3 points from the prior 69.5%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 is 67.5%; although prices briefly dipped under $98, a sustained downtrend has not materialized and the intraday reversal sapped bearish momentum, so no additional news evidence adjustment is applied, leaving the final probability at 67.5%, unchanged from the prior period. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $90 is 37.6%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 37.6%, down 4.7 points from 42.4%. The baseline likelihood for a surge above $130 is 5.2%, with no news evidence adjustment, leaving the final probability at 5.2%, unchanged.
6. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude surged to $103.89 in Asia before a sharp reversal pushed it below $98, quickly dousing momentum for a breakout above $105 while simultaneously easing the pressure for a drop below $95.; The news evidence in this period fully captured a violent intraday reversal in WTI crude during the Asian session on September 15. Early trading extended the prior strength, with prices surging to $103.89 and approaching the $105 threshold. However, the rally failed to hold, and prices subsequently gave back all gains and turned negative, falling first to $101.32 and then to $97.63. This rapid swing from challenging the highs to breaking below $98 directly undermined the near-term case for a breakout above $105, while simultaneously reducing the urgency around a deeper correction below $95. In probability terms, the baseline likelihood for hitting $105 is 79.2%, but given the latest price collapse runs counter to that target, a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points is applied, resulting in a final probability of 74.2%, down 3.5 percentage points from the prior period's 77.8%. The baseline likelihood for falling below $95 is 65.0%. Although prices briefly dipped below $98, a sustained downtrend has not yet formed, and the intraday reversal weakened the momentum for a one-sided decline; no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period, leaving the final probability at 65.0%, down 2.5 percentage points from the prior 67.5%. The baseline likelihood for falling below $90 is 36.9%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 36.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the prior 37.6%. The baseline likelihood for hitting $130 is 5.2%, with no news evidence adjustment, leaving the final probability at 5.2%, unchanged from the prior period.
7. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude surged to $103.89 in Asia before a sharp reversal pushed it below $98, quickly dousing momentum for a breakout above $105 while simultaneously easing the pressure for a drop below $95.; The news evidence in this period fully captured WTI's violent intraday reversal during the September 15 Asian session. Early trading extended the rally, pushing prices to a high of $103.89 and within striking distance of the $105 threshold. The advance proved unsustainable, however, as crude surrendered all its gains and turned negative, falling first to $101.32 and then to $97.63. This rapid swing from a near-breakout to a drop below $98 directly undermined the near-term case for a surge above $105, while simultaneously easing the urgency around a deeper retreat below $95. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for hitting $105 sits at 83%, but the latest price collapse runs counter to that breakout target, warranting a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points for a final probability of 78%, up 3.7 points from the prior period's 74.2%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 is 64.5%. Although prices briefly dipped under $98, a sustained downtrend has yet to materialize and the intraday reversal sapped the momentum for a one-sided sell-off; no additional news evidence adjustment is applied this period, leaving the final probability at 64.5%, down 0.5 points from the prior 65%. The baseline likelihood for a fall below $90 is 36.9%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 36.9%, unchanged from the prior period. The baseline likelihood for a surge above $130 is 5.1%, with no news evidence adjustment, for a final probability of 5.1%, down 0.1 points from the prior 5.2%.
8. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude surged to $104 in Asia before a sharp reversal pushed it below $98, quickly dousing momentum for a breakout above $105 while simultaneously easing the pressure for a drop below $95.; The news evidence in this period fully captures WTI's violent intraday reversal during the September 15 Asian session. Early trading extended the rally, with prices surging to the $104 level and approaching the $105 threshold. The advance proved unsustainable, however, as crude gave back all its gains and turned negative, falling first to $101.32 and then to $97.63. This rapid swing from challenging a high to breaking below $98 directly undermines the near-term case for a breakout above $105, while simultaneously reducing the urgency around a deep pullback below $95. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for hitting $105 is 89.5%, but given the latest price collapse runs counter to that target, a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points is applied, yielding a final probability of 84.5%, up 6.6 percentage points from the prior period's 78%. The baseline likelihood for falling below $95 is 61%. Although prices briefly dipped below $98, a sustained downtrend has not materialized and the intraday reversal sapped unilateral selling momentum; no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period, leaving the final probability at 61%, down 3.5 percentage points from the prior 64.5%. The baseline likelihood for falling below $90 is 36.1%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 36.1%, down 0.7 percentage points. The baseline likelihood for hitting $130 is 5.5%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 5.5%, up 0.3 percentage points.
9. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude briefly surged to $104 before a sharp reversal pushed it below $98, quickly dousing momentum for a breakout above $105 while simultaneously easing the pressure for a drop below $95.; This period's news evidence fully captures WTI crude's violent intraday reversal during the September 15 Asian session. Early trading extended the prior strength, with prices surging to the $104 mark and approaching the $105 target. The rally proved unsustainable, however, as prices subsequently gave back all gains and turned negative, falling first to $101.32 and then to $97.63. This rapid swing from challenging the highs to breaking below $98 directly undermined the near-term case for a breakout above $105, while simultaneously reducing the urgency around a deep pullback below $95. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for hitting $105 stands at 86.4%, but given the latest price collapse runs counter to that breakout target, a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points is applied, yielding a final probability of 81.4%, down 3.1 percentage points from the prior period's 84.5%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 is 60.5%; although prices briefly dipped below $98, a sustained downtrend has yet to materialize and the intraday reversal weakened one-sided selling momentum, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period, leaving the final probability at 60.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from the prior 61%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $90 is 36.2%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 36.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the prior 36.1%. The baseline likelihood for a surge above $130 is 5.5%, with no news evidence adjustment, leaving the final probability at 5.5%, unchanged from the prior period.
10. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude briefly surged to $104 before a sharp reversal pushed it below $98, quickly dousing momentum for a breakout above $105 while simultaneously easing the pressure for a drop below $95.; This period's news evidence fully captures WTI crude's dramatic intraday reversal during the Asian session on September 15. Early trading extended the rally, with prices briefly surging to the $104 level and approaching the $105 target. However, the advance failed to hold, and prices subsequently gave back all gains and turned negative, falling first to $101.32 and then to $97.63. This rapid swing from challenging the highs to breaking below $98 directly undermined the near-term case for a breakout above $105, while simultaneously reducing the urgency around a deeper correction below $95. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for hitting $105 is 90.9%, but given the latest price collapse runs counter to that breakout target, a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points is applied, resulting in a final probability of 85.9%, up 4.5 percentage points from the prior period's 81.4%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 is 60.5%; although prices briefly fell below $98, a sustained downtrend has not yet materialized and the intraday reversal weakened the momentum for a one-sided sell-off, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period, leaving the final probability at 60.5%, unchanged from the prior period. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $90 is 35.7%, with no news evidence adjustment this period, resulting in a final probability of 35.7%, down 0.6 percentage points from the prior period's 36.2%. The baseline likelihood for hitting $130 is 5.5%, with no news evidence adjustment this period, leaving the final probability at 5.5%, unchanged from the prior period.
11. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude briefly surged to $104 before a sharp reversal pushed it below $98, quickly dousing momentum for a breakout above $105 while simultaneously easing the pressure for a drop below $95.; The news evidence in this period fully captured a violent intraday reversal in WTI crude during the Asian session on September 15. Early trading extended the prior strength, with prices briefly surging to the $104 mark and approaching the $105 target. The rally proved unsustainable, however, as prices subsequently erased all gains and turned negative, falling first to $101.32 and then to $97.63. This rapid swing from challenging the highs to breaking below $98 directly undermined the near-term case for a breakout above $105, while simultaneously reducing the urgency around a deeper correction below $95. In probability terms, the baseline likelihood for hitting $105 is 95%, but given the latest price collapse runs counter to that breakout target, a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points is applied, resulting in a final probability of 90%, up 4.0 percentage points from the prior period's 85.9%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 is 60.5%. Although prices briefly fell below $98, a sustained downtrend has not yet been established and the intraday reversal weakened the momentum for a one-sided sell-off; no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period, leaving the final probability at 60.5%, unchanged from the prior period. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $90 is 35.7%, with no news evidence adjustment this period, leaving the final probability at 35.7%, unchanged. The baseline likelihood for hitting $130 is 5.9%, with no news evidence adjustment, leaving the final probability at 5.9%, up 0.5 percentage points from the prior period's 5.5%.
12. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude surged to $104.95 in early Asian trading, just a tick away from $105, before a sharp reversal pushed it below $98, quickly extinguishing the breakout momentum.; The news evidence in this period fully captured a dramatic reversal in WTI crude during the Asian session on September 15. Prices extended their strength early in the day, surging to $104.95 and closing in on the $105 target. The rally proved unsustainable, however, as prices gave back all gains and turned negative, falling to $101.32 and then $97.63. This rapid swing from a near-breakout to a drop below $98 directly undermined the near-term case for hitting $105, while simultaneously easing the urgency around a deeper pullback below $95. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for hitting $105 is 87.9%, but given the latest price collapse runs counter to that target, a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points is applied, resulting in a final probability of 82.9%, down 7.0 pp from the prior period's 90%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $95 is 61.5%. Although prices briefly dipped below $98, a sustained downtrend has not yet formed and the intraday reversal weakened the momentum for a one-sided sell-off; no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period, leaving the final probability at 61.5%, up 1.0 pp from 60.5%. The baseline likelihood for a drop below $90 is 38.4%, with no news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 38.4%, up 2.7 pp from 35.7%. The baseline likelihood for hitting $130 is 6.0%, with no news evidence adjustment, leaving the final probability at 6.0%, up 0.1 pp from 5.9%.
13. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude rebounded strongly in the latter half of the Asian session, confirmed a breakout above $105 to hit a new high since May, achieving the upside target.; The latest news evidence completely reverses the previous judgment. The prior period reported a sharp reversal from $104.95 to below $98, but new reports show that after a brief pullback, oil prices regained momentum and ultimately broke through the key $105 resistance level. Multiple outlets confirmed around 16:00 that WTI crude futures hit $105.014, with intraday gains exceeding 3.5%, marking a new high since May. This price action directly confirms that the 'hit $105' scenario has materialized. In terms of probabilities, the final probability for 'Hit $105' is 94.9%, a significant increase of 12.0 percentage points from the previous 82.9%. Given that the news evidence directly confirms the realization of this outcome, no further news evidence adjustment is applied in this period. The baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $95' is 61.5%, but the current strong upward price action contradicts a downward move, warranting a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points, resulting in a final probability of 56.5%, a decrease of 5.0 percentage points from the previous 61.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $90' is 37.1%, similarly suppressed by the strong uptrend, with a news evidence adjustment of -3 percentage points, resulting in a final probability of 34.2%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous 38.4%. The final probability for 'Hit $130' is 6.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous 6.0%; despite the current strength, the price is still far from $130, so no adjustment is made.
14. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, achieving the upside scenario, while the likelihood of a drop below $95 is extremely low.; This period's news evidence confirms the previous judgment. Around 16:00, Cailian Press and Jinshi both confirmed that WTI crude oil futures hit $105.014 per barrel, with an intraday gain of over 3.5%, marking a new high since May. This price action directly confirms that the 'break above $105' scenario has occurred. In terms of probabilities, the final likelihood for 'break above $105' has risen from 94.9% in the prior period to 100%, reflecting that this outcome has been realized. The baseline likelihood for 'fall below $95' is 61.5%, but with oil prices confirmed to have broken above $105, the strong upward trend contradicts a move towards $95, resulting in a -5 percentage point news evidence adjustment and a final likelihood of 56.5%, unchanged from the prior period. The baseline likelihood for 'fall below $90' is 37.1%; the strong break above $105 makes this bearish scenario even more remote, leading to a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment and a final likelihood of 34.2%, unchanged from the prior period. The baseline likelihood for 'break above $130' is 6.3%; while the current price is strong, it remains far from $130, so no adjustment is made, resulting in a final likelihood of 6.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the prior period's 6.2%.
15. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, achieving the upside scenario, while the likelihood of a drop below $95 has further decreased.; This period's news evidence confirms the previous judgment. Around 16:00, both Cailian Press and Jinshi Data confirmed that WTI crude oil futures hit $105.014, with an intraday gain of over 3.5%, reaching a new high since May. This price action directly confirms that the 'break above $105' scenario has occurred. In terms of probabilities, the final likelihood for 'break above $105' remains at 100%, reflecting the realized outcome. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' is 57%, but with oil prices confirmed above $105, the strong upward trend runs counter to a move toward $95, leading to a -5 percentage point news evidence adjustment for a final probability of 52%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the last period's 56.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' is 33.7%; the strong break above $105 makes this bearish scenario even more remote, resulting in a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment for a final probability of 30.6%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the last period's 34.2%. The baseline likelihood for 'break above $130' is 9%; although the current price is strong, it is still far from $130, so no adjustment is made this period, leaving the final probability at 9%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the last period's 6.3%.
16. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, achieving the upside scenario, while the likelihood of a drop below $95 has further decreased.; This period's news evidence further solidifies the previous judgment. Around 16:00, Cailian Press and Jin10 Data both confirmed that WTI crude oil futures hit $105.014, with an intraday gain of over 3.5%, marking a new high since May. This price action directly confirms that the 'break above $105' scenario has materialized. In terms of probabilities, the final likelihood for 'break above $105' remains at 100%, reflecting the realized outcome. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' is 54.5%, but with oil prices confirmed above $105, the strong upward trend runs counter to a fall toward $95. A -5 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, resulting in a final probability of 49.5%, down 2.5 points from the previous 52%. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' is 29.9%. The decisive break above $105 makes this bearish scenario even more remote, warranting a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment to a final probability of 26.9%, down 3.7 points from the previous 30.6%. The baseline likelihood for 'break above $130' is 8.6%. While current prices are strong, they remain far from $130, so no adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 8.6%, down 0.4 points from the previous 9%.
17. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, achieving the upside scenario, while the likelihood of a drop below $95 has further decreased.; This period's news evidence further solidifies the previous judgment. Multiple reports from Cailian Press and Jinshi Data around 16:00 confirmed that WTI crude oil futures hit $105.014, with intraday gains exceeding 3.5%, reaching a new high since May. This price action directly confirms that the 'break above $105' scenario has materialized. Regarding probabilities, the final likelihood for 'break above $105' remains at 100%, reflecting the realized outcome. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' is 49%, but with oil prices confirmed above $105, the strong upward trend runs counter to a fall toward $95. A -5 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, resulting in a final probability of 44%, down 5.5 points from the previous period's 49.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' is 28.1%; the robust break above $105 makes this bearish scenario even more remote, warranting a -3 percentage point adjustment to 25.1%, down 1.8 points from 26.9%. For 'break above $130', the baseline is 6.7%. While current prices are strong, they remain far from $130, so no adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 6.7%, down 1.9 points from 8.6%.
18. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, achieving the upside scenario. The likelihood of a drop below $95 has decreased significantly due to strong upward momentum.; The news evidence in this period fully documents WTI's breakout above $105. Starting with Jin10 Data reporting a price of $100.95 at 16:15, and culminating with Cailian Press confirming a settlement price of $105.83 at 18:33, multiple outlets reported in quick succession that prices continued to climb and ultimately settled firmly above the $105 mark. One report attributed the surge to supply concerns after loading was halted at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port due to a pipeline attack. Regarding probabilities, the final likelihood for 'Break above $105' is 100%, reflecting that the outcome has materialized, so no adjustment is made this period. The final likelihood for 'Drop below $95' is 39.5%, with a baseline likelihood of 44.5%. Given that prices have forcefully broken above $105 and settled there, the market momentum is completely contrary to a move toward $95, warranting a -5 percentage point news evidence adjustment. This outcome is down 4.5 percentage points from the previous 44%. The final likelihood for 'Drop below $90' is 25.4%, with a baseline likelihood of 28.4%. The strong breakout above $105 makes this bearish scenario even more remote, warranting a -3 percentage point adjustment. This outcome is up 0.3 percentage points from the previous 25.1%. The final likelihood for 'Break above $130' is 6.5%, with a baseline likelihood of 6.5%. While current prices are strong, they remain far from $130, so no adjustment is made this period. This outcome is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous 6.7%.
19. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, achieving the upside scenario. The likelihood of a drop below $95 has decreased significantly due to strong upward momentum.; This period's news evidence chain fully documents WTI crude oil's breakout above $105. Starting with Jin10 Data reporting the price touching $100.95 at 16:15, and culminating with Cailian Press confirming a settlement price of $105.83 at 18:33, multiple media outlets intensively reported the sustained climb and eventual consolidation above $105 within a short timeframe. Among these, one report attributed the surge to supply concerns after Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port suspended loading due to a pipeline attack. Regarding probabilities, the final likelihood for 'Hit $105' is 100%, as this outcome has been realized, with no adjustment made this period. This result is unchanged from the prior period. The final likelihood for 'Drop below $95' is 44%, against a baseline likelihood of 49%. Given the decisive breakout and settlement above $105, market momentum runs directly counter to a drop toward $95, warranting a -5 percentage point news evidence adjustment. This result is up 4.5 percentage points from the prior period's 39.5%. The final likelihood for 'Drop below $90' is 26.5%, against a baseline likelihood of 29.5%. The strong breakout above $105 makes this bearish scenario even more remote, leading to a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment. This result is up 1.1 percentage points from the prior period's 25.4%. The final likelihood for 'Hit $130' is 6.6%, matching its baseline likelihood of 6.6%. While current prices are strong, they remain far from $130, so no adjustment is made this period. This result is up 0.1 percentage points from the prior period's 6.5%.
20. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, achieving the upside scenario. The likelihood of a drop below $95 has decreased significantly due to strong upward momentum.; This period's news evidence chain fully documents WTI crude's breakout above $105. Starting with Jin10 Data reporting a touch of $100.95 at 16:15 and ending with Cailian Press confirming a settlement at $105.83 at 18:33, multiple outlets reported in rapid succession that prices continued to climb and ultimately held above $105. Among them, one report attributed the surge to supply concerns after Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port suspended loading due to a pipeline attack. On the probability front, the final likelihood for 'Hits $105' is 100% as the outcome has been realized, with no adjustment this period. This result is unchanged from the prior period's 100%. The final likelihood for 'Drops below $95' is 39.5%, against a baseline likelihood of 44.5%. Given the strong breakout and settlement above $105, market momentum runs completely counter to a drop toward $95, warranting a -5 percentage point news evidence adjustment. This result is down 4.5 percentage points from the prior period's 44%. The final likelihood for 'Drops below $90' is 24.5%, against a baseline of 27.5%. The powerful rally above $105 makes this bearish scenario even more remote, leading to a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment. This result is down 2.0 percentage points from the prior period's 26.5%. The final likelihood for 'Hits $130' is 6.2%, matching its baseline of 6.2%. While current prices are strong, they remain far from $130, so no adjustment is made. This result is down 0.4 percentage points from the prior period's 6.6%.
21. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, achieving the upside scenario. The likelihood of a drop below $95 has decreased significantly due to strong upward momentum.; The news evidence chain in this period fully documents WTI crude oil's breakout above $105. Starting with Jin10 Data reporting a price touch of $100.95 at 16:15, and culminating with Cailian Press confirming a settlement price of $105.83 at 18:33, multiple media outlets intensively reported the sustained climb and eventual consolidation above $105 within a short timeframe. Among these, one report attributed the surge to supply concerns triggered by a pipeline attack halting loadings at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port. In terms of probabilities, the final likelihood for 'Break above $105' is 100%, as this outcome has been realized, with no adjustment made this period. This result is unchanged from the previous period's 100%. The final likelihood for 'Drop below $95' is 45%, against a baseline likelihood of 50%. Given that oil prices have strongly broken through and settled above $105, the market momentum is completely opposite to a move toward $95, warranting a -5 percentage point news evidence adjustment. This result is up 5.5 percentage points from the previous period's 39.5%. The final likelihood for 'Drop below $90' is 25.6%, against a baseline likelihood of 28.6%. The strong breakout above $105 makes this bearish scenario even more remote, leading to a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment. This result is up 1.1 percentage points from the previous period's 24.5%. The final likelihood for 'Break above $130' is 6.2%, against a baseline likelihood of 6.2%. While current prices are strong, they remain far from $130, so no adjustment is made this period. This result is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous period's 6.2%.
22. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but the latest reports show a pullback below $100, marking a significant retreat from the highs.; This period's news evidence shows WTI crude experiencing a sharp rally followed by a significant pullback. In the first half, multiple outlets reported intensively that oil prices surged due to an attack on Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port pipeline, with intraday highs reaching $106.49 and a settlement price of $105.83, confirming the breakout above $105. However, near the end of this window, both Jin10 and Cailian Press reported that prices had fallen back below the $100 per barrel mark, erasing most of the earlier gains. Regarding probabilities, the outcome of 'breaking above $105' has been realized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' is 45%, down 5 percentage points from the previous period. Although a pullback has occurred, the latest price is still around $100, leaving some distance from $95, and the retreat followed a sharp rally; therefore, no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $90' is 27.35%, and given the current price level, no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihood for 'breaking above $130' is 5.65%, and current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made.
23. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but the latest reports show a pullback below $100, marking a significant retreat from the highs.; The news evidence this period shows a dramatic spike and retreat in WTI crude prices. In the first half, multiple outlets reported a surge driven by an attack on Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port pipeline, with intraday highs reaching $106.49 and a settlement at $105.83, confirming the breakout above $105. However, near the end of this window, both Jin10 and Cailian Press reported that prices had fallen back below the $100 mark, erasing most of the earlier gains. On the probability front, the 'hit $105' outcome has been realized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' is 50.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from the previous period. Although prices have pulled back, the latest level is still around $100, leaving some distance from $95, and the retreat occurred after the spike, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $90' is 30.2%, also left unadjusted due to the current price distance. The baseline likelihood for 'breaking above $130' is 5.65%, unsupported by current price momentum.
24. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but the latest intraday prices have fallen below the $100 mark, marking a significant pullback from the highs.; The news evidence in this period clearly shows a sharp spike and subsequent pullback in WTI crude oil prices. In the first half, multiple media outlets intensively reported that oil prices surged due to a pipeline attack at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port, with intraday prices hitting $106.49 and settling at $105.83, confirming the breakout above $105. However, near the end of this window, both Jinshi and Cailian Press reported that prices had fallen below the $100 per barrel mark, giving back most of the earlier gains. In terms of probabilities, the 'hit $105' outcome has been realized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' is 52.5%, up 2 percentage points from the previous period. Although a pullback has occurred, the latest price is still around $100, leaving some distance from $95, and the decline followed a sharp rally, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made for this period. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $90' is 33.8%, also left unadjusted due to the current price level. The baseline likelihood for 'breaking above $130' is 5.3%, a scenario not supported by current price momentum, and is left unadjusted.
25. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but the latest intraday prices have fallen below the $100 mark, marking a significant pullback from the highs.; The news evidence in this period clearly shows a sharp spike and subsequent pullback in WTI crude oil prices. In the first half, multiple media outlets reported intensively that oil prices surged due to a pipeline attack at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port, with intraday prices hitting $106.49 and the settlement price closing at $105.83, confirming the breakout above $105. However, near the end of this window, both Jinshi and Cailian Press reported that oil prices had fallen below the $100 per barrel mark, giving back most of the earlier gains. On the probability front, the outcome of 'breaking above $105' has been realized, with its probability remaining at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' is 56.5%, up 4 percentage points from the previous period. Although prices have pulled back, the latest quote is still around $100, leaving some distance from the $95 level, and the pullback occurred after the spike, so no additional news evidence adjustment is made for this period. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $90' is 33.1%, and no adjustment is made due to the current price level being far from that threshold. The baseline likelihood for 'breaking above $130' is 5.1%, and the current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made.
26. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but the latest intraday prices have fallen below the $100 mark, marking a significant pullback from the highs.; The news evidence in this period clearly shows a sharp spike and subsequent pullback in WTI crude oil prices. In the first half, multiple media outlets reported intensively that oil prices surged due to a pipeline attack at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port, with intraday prices hitting $106.49 and settling at $105.83, confirming the breakout above $105. However, towards the end of this window, both Jinshi and Cailian Press reported that prices had fallen below the $100 per barrel mark, giving back most of the earlier gains. In terms of likelihoods, the 'break above $105' outcome has been realized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'fall below $95' is 61%, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous period. Although a pullback has occurred, the latest price is still around $100, some distance from $95, and the decline followed the initial surge; therefore, no additional news evidence adjustment is made for this period. The baseline likelihood for 'fall below $90' is 33%, and no adjustment is made as the current price level is far from that threshold. The baseline likelihood for 'break above $130' is 5.35%, and the current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made.
27. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but the latest intraday prices have fallen below $99, accelerating the pullback from the highs.; Evidence in this period shows WTI crude's pullback has deepened after confirming a breakout above $105. The prior session settled at $105.83, confirming the "above $105" scenario. However, the latest reports within this window show the decline accelerating: both CLS and Jinshi reported WTI crude futures breaking below the $99 mark, with an intraday low of $98.628. On the probability front, the "above $105" outcome has been realized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for "falling below $95" stands at 61%, unchanged from the prior period. Despite the accelerating sell-off, the current price remains above $98, roughly $3 away from the $95 threshold, and volatility is high, so no additional news evidence adjustment is applied this period. The "below $90" baseline likelihood rose to 37.5%, but the current price level remains distant, so no adjustment is made. The "above $130" baseline likelihood is 5.5%, unsupported by current price momentum, and no adjustment is made.
28. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but intraday prices are oscillating violently in the $98-$99 range, cooling the likelihood of a drop below $95.; News evidence in this period shows WTI crude prices locked in a tug-of-war within the $98-$99 range after confirming a breakout above $105. The prior session's settlement at $105.83 confirmed the 'above $105' scenario. During this window, prices first breached the $100 mark in early trading, then accelerated downward to a session low of $98.628, only to be followed by a sudden $1 short-covering spike back to $98.77, indicating intense bullish-bearish fighting. In terms of likelihood, the 'above $105' outcome has materialized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' decreased from 61% to 56.5%, a drop of 4.5 percentage points. Although prices briefly approached $98.5, there is still a gap of about $3.5 to the $95 threshold, and the rapid intraday rebound suggests the existence of buying support below, meaning the momentum is insufficient to support a higher probability of a deeper drop. Therefore, no additional news evidence adjustment is made this period. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $90' dropped to 36%, and no adjustment is made due to the distance from current price levels. The baseline likelihood for 'breaking above $130' is 5.5%, a scenario unsupported by current price momentum, and no adjustment is made.
29. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but intraday prices are oscillating violently in the $98-$99 range, raising the likelihood of a drop below $95.; News evidence in this period shows WTI crude prices locked in a tug-of-war in the $98-$99 range after confirming a breakout above $105. The prior session settled at $105.83, cementing the 'Above $105' scenario, which remains at 100%. Within this window, prices first breached the $100 mark early in the session, then accelerated downward to a low of $98.628, before staging a sharp $1 rebound to $98.77, indicating intense bull-bear contention. On the probability front, the 'Above $105' outcome has materialized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $95' is 61.5%, with a final probability of 64.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from the previous 56.5%. Although a rapid intraday bounce occurred, prices effectively broke below the $99 threshold and hit a low of $98.628, leaving only about $3.6 of buffer to the $95 mark, with significantly stronger downward momentum than in the prior period. Based on this, we apply a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment to 'Drop below $95'. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $90' is 36.2%, with a final probability of 36.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous 36%; given the distance from current price levels, no adjustment is made. The 'Above $130' scenario has a baseline likelihood of 5.5%, with a final probability of 5.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous 5.5%; current price momentum does not support this scenario, and no adjustment is made.
30. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, but intraday prices are oscillating violently in the $98-$99 range, raising the likelihood of a drop below $95.; Evidence this period shows WTI crude locked in a tug-of-war in the $98-$99 range after confirming a breakout above $105. The prior session settled at $105.83, cementing the "Break above $105" scenario, which remains at 100%. During this window, prices first broke below the $100 mark in early trading, then accelerated to a low of $98.628 before staging a sharp $1 rebound to $98.77, reflecting intense bullish-bearish contention. On the probability front, the "Break above $105" outcome has been realized and stays at 100%. The baseline likelihood for "Drop below $95" is 58%, with a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 61%, down 3.5 percentage points from the prior period's 64.5%. Despite the rapid intraday bounce, prices effectively breached the $99 level and touched $98.628, leaving only about $3.60 of buffer to the $95 threshold, with notably stronger downward momentum than in the previous period. We therefore apply a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment to "Drop below $95". The baseline likelihood for "Drop below $90" is 34.9%, unchanged by news evidence given the current distance from that level, down 1.3 percentage points from the prior 36.2%. The "Break above $130" scenario remains at a 5.5% baseline, unsupported by current price dynamics, up 0.1 percentage points from the prior 5.5%.
31. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, with intraday prices seesawing in the $98-$99 range, slightly raising the likelihood of a drop below $95.; News evidence in this period shows WTI crude prices locked in a tug-of-war in the $98-$99 range after confirming a breakout above $105. The prior session settled at $105.83, locking in the 'break above $105' scenario at 100% probability. During this window, prices first breached the $100 mark in early trading, then accelerated to a low of $98.628, only to rebound sharply by $1 to $98.77, reflecting intense market contention. Regarding probabilities, the 'break above $105' outcome has materialized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' is 61.5%, with a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 64.5%, up 3.5 points from the previous 61%. Despite the rapid intraday rebound, prices effectively broke below the $99 threshold and touched a low of $98.628, leaving only about $3.60 of buffer to the $95 mark, with significantly stronger downward momentum than in the prior period. Based on this, we apply a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment to 'drop below $95'. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' is 35.4%, with no adjustment applied, as the current price level remains distant from that target. The baseline likelihood for 'break above $130' is 6.2%, also with no adjustment, as current price momentum does not support this scenario.
32. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, with intraday prices accelerating down to a low of $97.978, significantly raising the likelihood of a drop below $95.; News evidence in this period shows WTI crude's decline accelerating after confirming a breakout above $105. The previous session's close at $105.80 confirmed the 'Break above $105' scenario, keeping its probability at 100%. During this window, prices fell from above $104, breaking through the $100 and $99 marks to hit a low of $97.978. Despite a brief $1 intraday bounce, the overall downward trend is clear. Regarding probabilities, the 'Break above $105' outcome has materialized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $95' is 63.5%, with a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 66.5%, up 2.0 points from the previous period's 64.5%. Prices effectively broke below the prior low of $98.628, moving closer to the $95 threshold with sustained downward momentum, justifying the +3 point adjustment. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $90' is 38.5%, with no adjustment, up 3.1 points from the prior 35.4%. The baseline for 'Surge above $130' is 4.8%, with no adjustment, down 1.4 points from the prior 6.2%, as current price momentum does not support this scenario.
33. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, with the intraday sell-off accelerating to a low of $96.88, significantly raising the likelihood of a drop below $95.; News evidence this period shows WTI's sell-off has intensified. The previous session's close at $105.80 had already confirmed the 'Breakout above $105' scenario. During this window, prices fell from above $104, breaking through the $100 and $99 levels to hit a low of $96.88. Despite a brief $1 intraday spike, the overall downward trend is clear. In terms of probabilities, the 'Breakout above $105' outcome has been realized, with its final probability remaining at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $95' is 68.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from the previous 63.5%. This period's price action effectively broke through the prior low of $97.978, moving closer to the $95 threshold with sustained downward momentum, warranting a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment, resulting in a final probability of 71.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from the previous 66.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $90' is 39.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from 38.5%; no adjustment is made as the current price level is still some distance away, leaving the final probability at 39%. The baseline likelihood for 'Breakout above $130' is 4.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from 4.8%; current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 4.5%.
34. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a breakout above $105, with the intraday sell-off accelerating to a low of $96.88, significantly raising the likelihood of a drop below $95.; News evidence this period shows WTI's sell-off intensifying further. The prior session's close at $105.80 had already confirmed the 'break above $105' scenario. Within this window, prices fell from above $104 through the $100 and $99 handles, hitting a low of $96.88. Despite a brief $1 intraday bounce, the overall downward momentum is clear. On the probability front, the '$105 breakout' outcome is realized and remains at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' is 70.5%, up 2.0 pp from 68.5%. With prices effectively breaching the prior low of $97.978 and approaching the $95 threshold amid sustained selling pressure, we apply a +3 pp news evidence adjustment, bringing the final probability to 73.5%, up 2.0 pp from 71.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' is 42.4%, up 3.4 pp from 39.0%; given the current price level's distance from that target, no adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 42.4%. The '$130 breakout' baseline likelihood is 4.5%, down 0.1 pp from 4.5%, and current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made, with the final probability at 4.5%.
35. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a drop below $95, with the intraday low reaching $96.68, fulfilling the scenario of falling below $95.; News evidence in this period confirms that WTI crude oil prices continued to plummet on September 16, with losses expanding to 4% and an intraday low of $96.68, effectively breaking below the $95 threshold. Despite a brief $1 short-covering bounce, the overall downward trend is clear with heavy selling pressure. In terms of probabilities, the 'break above $105' outcome has been realized, with the final probability remaining at 100%. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' is 71.5%. Given that the news has directly confirmed this scenario, a +10.0 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, bringing the final probability from the previous 73.5% to 81.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $90' is 47.1%, but with the current price still about $6 away, no adjustment is made, and the final probability rises from the previous 42.4% to 47.1%. The baseline likelihood for 'breaking above $130' is 4.5%, and current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made, with the final probability edging down from 4.5% to 4.5%.
36. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has confirmed a drop below $95, with the intraday low reaching $96.68, fulfilling the scenario of falling below $95. The final probability is 78%.; News evidence this period confirms that WTI crude oil prices continued to plummet during the September 16 session, with losses widening to 4% and an intraday low of $96.68, effectively breaching the $95 threshold. Despite a brief $1 spike during the session, the overall downward trend is clear and selling pressure remains heavy. On the probability front, the "Break above $105" outcome has been realized, with the final probability holding at 100%. The baseline likelihood for "Fall below $95" is 68.0%. Given that the news has directly confirmed this scenario, a +10.0 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, moving the final probability from 81.5% in the prior period to 78.0%. The baseline likelihood for "Fall below $90" is 46.4%, but with the current price still roughly $6 away from $90, no adjustment is made; the final probability moves from 47.1% to 46.4%. The baseline likelihood for "Break above $130" is 4.5%, and current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made; the final probability moves from 4.5% to 4.5%.
37. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, with an intraday low of $96.68, fulfilling the scenario of falling below $95.; This period's news evidence confirms that WTI crude continued to plunge during the September 16 session, with losses widening to 4% and the price hitting an intraday low of $96.68, effectively breaking below the $95 threshold. Despite a brief $1 short-covering bounce, the overall downward trend is clear and selling pressure remains heavy. On the probability front, the "Break above $105" outcome has already been realized, with the final probability holding at 100%. The baseline likelihood for "Fall below $95" is 70.5%. Given that the news has directly confirmed this scenario, a +10.0 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, moving the final probability from the previous period's 78.0% to 80.5%. The baseline likelihood for "Fall below $90" is 43.1%, but with the current price still roughly $6 away from $90, no adjustment is made; the final probability shifts from the previous period's 46.4% to 43.1%. The baseline likelihood for "Break above $130" is 4.5%, and current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made; the final probability remains at 4.5%.
38. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, with an intraday low of $96.68, fulfilling the scenario of falling below $95.; News evidence this period confirms that WTI crude prices continued to plunge during the September 16 session, with losses widening to 4% and hitting an intraday low of $96.68, effectively breaking below the $95 threshold. Despite a brief $1 spike, the overall downward trend is clear and selling pressure remains heavy. On the probability front, the "Break above $105" outcome has already been realized, with the final probability holding at 100%. The baseline likelihood for "Fall below $95" is 66%. Given that the news directly confirms this scenario has occurred, a +10 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, moving the final probability from 80.5% in the prior period to 76%. The baseline likelihood for "Fall below $90" is 42%, but with the current price still roughly $6 away from that level, no adjustment is made; the final probability shifts from 43.1% to 42%. The baseline likelihood for "Break above $130" is 4.5%, and current price momentum does not support this scenario, so no adjustment is made; the final probability holds at 4.5%.
39. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, fulfilling the scenario of falling below $95, with the decline accelerating.; The current news evidence continues to confirm and reinforce the fact that WTI crude oil prices have fallen below $95. The latest reports show the decline widening to 4%, with an intraday low of $96.654, primarily attributed to news that Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore half the capacity of a key oil pipeline within days, easing supply-side concerns. Despite a brief $1 intraday bounce, the overall downward trend is clear with heavy selling pressure. In terms of probabilities, the final likelihood for 'Fall below $95' is 78.5%, up +2.5 percentage points from the previous 76%. The baseline likelihood is 68.5%, and as the news has directly confirmed this scenario, a +10 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied. The final likelihood for 'Fall below $90' is 46.2%, up +4.2 percentage points from the previous 42%, but with the current price still about $6 away from $90, no news evidence adjustment is made. The final likelihood for 'Break above $105' is 100%, unchanged from the previous period. The final likelihood for 'Break above $130' is 4.6%, up +0.1 percentage points from the previous 4.5%.
40. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, fulfilling the scenario of falling below $95, with the decline accelerating.; The current news evidence continues to confirm and reinforce the fact that WTI crude oil has broken below $95. The latest reports show the decline widening to 4%, with an intraday low of $96.654, primarily attributed to news that Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore half the capacity of a key oil pipeline within days, easing supply-side concerns. Despite a brief $1 intraday bounce, the overall downward trend is clear with heavy selling pressure. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $95' is 67.5%. Given that the news has directly confirmed this scenario, a +10 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, resulting in a final probability of 77.5%, a slight decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous 78.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $90' is 41.8%, but with the current price still about $6 away from $90, no news evidence adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 41.8%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous 46.2%. The final probabilities for 'Break above $105' and 'Break above $130' remain at 100% and 4.6%, respectively, unchanged from the previous period.
41. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, fulfilling the scenario of falling below $95, with the decline accelerating.; The current news evidence continues to confirm and reinforce the fact that WTI crude oil prices have broken below $95. The latest reports show the decline widening to 4%, with an intraday low of $96.654, primarily attributed to news that Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore half the capacity of a key oil pipeline within days, easing supply-side concerns. Despite a brief $1 intraday spike, the overall downward trend is clear with heavy selling pressure. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $95' is 64.5%. As the news has directly confirmed this scenario, a +10 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, resulting in a final probability of 74.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous period's 77.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $90' is 45.0%. With the current price still about $6 away from $90, no news evidence adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 45.0%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous period's 41.8%. The final probabilities for 'Break above $105' and 'Break above $130' are 100% and 4.5%, respectively, with changes of +0.0 pp and -0.1 pp from the previous period.
42. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude rebounded sharply after breaking below $95 intraday, with the latest settlement back above $102, confirming the scenario of falling below $95 has been realized.; The news evidence this period shows WTI crude prices experienced sharp volatility, falling first and then rebounding. During intraday trading, WTI prices briefly plunged over 4% to a low of $96.654 per barrel, driven by reports that Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore capacity on a key oil pipeline, which eased supply concerns and confirmed the 'fall below $95' scenario. However, the latest settlement report shows prices rebounded sharply, ultimately closing down 3.21% at $102.43, returning to the core $95-$105 range. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'fall below $95' is 67%. Given that news has directly confirmed this scenario occurred intraday, a +10 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, moving the final probability from the previous 74.5% to 77%. The baseline likelihood for 'fall below $90' is 41.9%, and with the settlement price still a considerable distance from $90, no news evidence adjustment is made, with the final probability moving from the previous 45% to 41.9%. The baseline likelihoods for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' are 100% and 4.5% respectively, and no adjustments are made, with final probabilities remaining at 100% and 4.5%.
43. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude rebounded sharply after breaking below $95 intraday, with the latest settlement back above $102, confirming the scenario of falling below $95 has been realized.; This period's news evidence shows a dramatic intraday swing in WTI prices. During the session, reports that Saudi Arabia was seeking to restore half the capacity of a key oil pipeline eased supply concerns, sending WTI tumbling more than 4% to an intraday low of $96.654 and confirming the sub-$95 scenario. The latest settlement report, however, shows a sharp rebound, with WTI closing down 3.21% at $102.43, back within the $95–$105 core range. On the probability side, the baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' stands at 72.5%. Since the news directly confirmed the scenario intraday, a +5 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, moving the final probability from the previous 77% to 77.5%. The baseline for 'falling below $90' is 42.1%, and with the settlement price still well above that level, no adjustment is made; the final probability rises from the previous 41.9% to 42.1%. The baselines for 'hitting $105' and 'hitting $130' are 100% and 4.5% respectively, and both final probabilities remain unchanged.
44. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude rebounded sharply after breaking below $95 intraday, with the latest settlement back above $102, confirming the scenario of falling below $95 has been realized.; This period's news evidence shows WTI crude experiencing sharp intraday swings. During the session, reports that Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore half the capacity of a key oil pipeline eased supply concerns, sending WTI tumbling more than 4% to an intraday low of $96.654, confirming the scenario of falling below $95. However, the latest settlement report shows a sharp rebound, with prices ultimately closing down 3.21% at $102.43, back within the $95-$105 core range. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $95' stands at 69%. Since the news directly confirms this scenario occurred intraday, a +5 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, bringing the final probability to 74%, down from 77.5% in the prior period. The baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $90' is 42.8%. With the current settlement price still far from $90, no news evidence adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 42.8%, up from 42.1%. The baseline likelihoods for 'Break above $105' and 'Break above $130' are 100% and 4.5% respectively, with no adjustments applied.
45. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude rebounded sharply after breaking below $95 intraday, with the latest settlement back above $102, confirming the scenario of falling below $95 has been realized.; This period's news evidence shows WTI crude experiencing sharp intraday volatility, first plunging then rebounding. During the session, news that Saudi Arabia sought to restore half the capacity of a key oil pipeline eased supply concerns, sending WTI down more than 4% to an intraday low of $96.654, confirming the scenario of falling below $95. However, the latest settlement report shows a strong rebound, with prices closing down 3.21% at $102.43, back within the $95-$105 core range. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $95' is 65.5%. Since the news directly confirmed this scenario occurred intraday, a +5 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, bringing the final probability to 70.5%, down from 74% in the prior period. The baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $90' is 41.9%, and with the settlement price still far from $90, no adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 41.9%, down from 42.8%. The baseline likelihoods for 'Break above $105' and 'Break above $130' remain at 100% and 4.5% respectively, with no adjustments applied.
46. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude rebounded sharply after breaking below $95 intraday, with the latest settlement back above $102, confirming the scenario of falling below $95 has been realized.; This period's news evidence shows a sharp intraday sell-off in WTI crude followed by a significant rebound. During the session, reports that Saudi Arabia was seeking to restore half the capacity of a key oil pipeline eased supply concerns, sending WTI down more than 4% to an intraday low of $96.654, confirming the scenario of falling below $95. However, the latest settlement report shows prices rebounded strongly, closing down 3.21% at $102.43, back within the core $95-$105 range. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $95' is 66.5%. Given the news directly confirmed this scenario occurred intraday, a +5 percentage point news evidence adjustment is applied, bringing the final probability to 71.5%, up from 70.5% in the prior period. The baseline likelihood for 'Fall below $90' is 37.6%, and with the settlement price still far from that level, no news evidence adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 37.6%, down from 41.9%. The baseline likelihoods for 'Break above $105' and 'Break above $130' are 100% and 4.4% respectively, with final probabilities holding at 100% and edging down from 4.5% to 4.4%.
47. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — WTI crude extended its weakness after Thursday's open, last trading at $97.17, remaining within the $95-$105 core range.; Evidence this period shows WTI crude continued to edge lower after Thursday's open, following the previous day's wild swings. The latest opening report confirms a price of $97.17, a further retreat from the prior settlement of $102.43, but still above the critical $95 threshold. The previous day's intraday low of $96.654 had already confirmed the 'fall below $95' scenario, and the current price does not present a new shock to that outcome. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'fall below $95' is 67.5%. Given this scenario has already been realized and the current price remains nearby, no news evidence adjustment is applied. The baseline for 'fall below $90' rose to 41.6%, but with the current price still far from $90, no adjustment is made. The baselines for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' stand at 100% and 4.4%, respectively, with no adjustments applied.
48. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude extended its decline, last trading at $96.519, having breached the $95 threshold but not yet touching $90.; The latest news evidence in this period shows WTI crude oil futures continued to slide during Thursday's trading session. A Cailian Press report in the early hours of September 17 Beijing time noted that losses widened to 1%, with prices at $96.519 per barrel, confirming a breach of the $95 threshold. The previous day's intraday low of $96.654 had already triggered this scenario for the first time, and the current price's further dip reinforces this trend. Regarding probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'hitting $95' is 71%. As this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is trading below it, no additional news evidence adjustment is applied. The baseline likelihood for 'hitting $90' has risen to 43.35%, but with the current price still roughly $6.50 away, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'hitting $105' and 'hitting $130' are 100% and 4.35% respectively, and neither is adjusted.
49. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude continues to trade below $95, last at $96.519, repeatedly confirming the breach of the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude futures extending their decline below the $95 mark. A Caixin report in the early hours of September 17 Beijing time noted losses widening to 1%, with prices at $96.519 per barrel, confirming the sustained move below the $95 threshold. The previous day's intraday low of $96.654 had already triggered this scenario, and the further dip reinforces the trend. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'hit $95' stands at 67.5%. As this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is below it, no additional news evidence adjustment is applied. The baseline likelihood for 'hit $90' has fallen to 40.8%, but with the current price still roughly $6.50 away, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'hit $105' and 'hit $130' are 100% and 3.35% respectively, and neither warrants an adjustment.
50. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has decisively broken below $95, last at $95.928, further confirming the drop below the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to slide after breaking below $95. Cailian Press reported at 14:33 Beijing time on September 17 that WTI crude futures fell to $95.928 per barrel, a decline of 1.62%. This is the most precise price evidence in this period, confirming the sustained move below the $95 threshold. Jin10 Data also reported WTI crude breaking below $96. The previous day's settlement price of $102.43 is now history, with oil prices accelerating their decline following the Fed's rate hike. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' rose from 67.5% to 72%. As this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is below the threshold, no additional news evidence adjustment is applied. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $90' edged up to 41.45%, but with the current price still about $6 away from $90, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'breaking above $105' and 'breaking above $130' stand at 100% and 3.25% respectively, with no adjustments applied.
51. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, last at $95.928, further confirming the drop below the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to slide after breaking below $95. Cailian Press reported at 14:33 Beijing time on September 17 that WTI crude futures fell to $95.928 per barrel, a drop of 1.62%. This is the most precise price evidence in this period, confirming the price is running below the $95 threshold. Jin10 Data also reported WTI crude breaking below $96. The previous day's closing price of $102.43 is history, with oil prices accelerating their decline following the Fed's rate hike. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' rose from 72% to 77%. Since this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is below the threshold, no additional news evidence adjustment is made. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' edged up to 42.05%, but with the current price still about $6 away from $90, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' stand at 100% and 2.4% respectively, with no adjustments applied.
52. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, last at $95.928, further confirming the drop below the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence this period shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to slide after breaking below $95. CLS reported at 14:33 Beijing time on September 17 that WTI crude futures fell to $95.928 per barrel, a decline of 1.62%. This is the most precise price evidence this period, confirming that prices are consistently running below the $95 threshold. Jin10 Data also reported WTI crude breaking below $96. The previous day's closing price of $102.43 is now history, with oil prices accelerating their decline following the Fed's rate hike. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for "drop below $95" edged up from 77% to 77.5%. Given that this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is running below it, no additional news evidence adjustment is made. The baseline likelihood for "drop below $90" rose from 42.05% to 47.1%, but with the current price still roughly $6 away from $90, there is no direct evidence supporting its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for "break above $105" and "break above $130" stand at 100% and 2.4% respectively, with no adjustments applied.
53. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, last at $94.973, further confirming the drop below the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to decline after breaking below $95. Cailian Press reported at 20:11 Beijing time on September 17 that WTI crude futures fell to $94.973 per barrel, a drop of 2.6%. This is the most precise price evidence in this period, confirming that prices are consistently running below the $95 threshold. The previous day's closing price of $102.43 is now history, with oil prices accelerating their decline after the Fed's rate hike. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' rose from 77.5% to 83%. Given that this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is below the threshold, no additional news evidence adjustment is made. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' rose from 47.1% to 49.65%, but the current price is still about $5 away from $90, with no direct evidence supporting its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' are 100% and 2.4% respectively, and neither is adjusted.
54. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, last at $94.973, further confirming the drop below the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to slide after breaking below $95. CLS reported at 20:11 Beijing time on September 17 that WTI crude fell to $94.973 per barrel, a drop of 2.6%, providing the most precise price evidence this period and confirming the price is running below the $95 threshold. The previous day's close of $102.43 is now history, with oil prices accelerating their decline following the Fed's rate hike. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' has risen from 83% to 87.5%. Since this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is below the threshold, no additional news evidence adjustment is applied. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' has risen from 49.65% to 54.15%, but with the current price still roughly $5 away from $90, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' stand at 100% and 2.4% respectively, and neither is adjusted.
55. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, last at $94.973, further confirming the drop below the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to slide after breaking below $95. Cailian Press reported at 20:11 Beijing time on September 17 that WTI crude fell to $94.973 per barrel, a drop of 2.6%, providing the most precise price evidence this period and confirming the price is running below the $95 threshold. The previous day's close of $102.43 is now history, with oil prices accelerating their decline following the Fed's rate hike. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for "falling below $95" has decreased from 87.5% to 81.5%. Given that this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is below that level, no additional news evidence adjustment is applied. The baseline likelihood for "falling below $90" has decreased from 54.15% to 53.05%, but with the current price still roughly $5 away from $90, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for "breaking above $105" and "breaking above $130" stand at 100% and 2.4% respectively, and neither is adjusted.
56. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude has broken below $95, last at $94.973, further confirming the drop below the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence this period shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to slide after breaking below $95. Cailianshe reported at 20:11 Beijing time on September 17 that WTI crude futures fell to $94.973 per barrel, a drop of 2.6%. This is the most precise price evidence in this period, confirming that prices are consistently running below the $95 threshold. The previous day's closing price of $102.43 is now history, with oil prices accelerating their decline following the Fed's rate hike. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for "falling back below $95" rose from 81.5% to 85%. Given that this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is below that level, no additional news evidence adjustment is made. The baseline likelihood for "falling back below $90" rose from 53.05% to 55.3%, but with the current price still roughly $5 away from $90, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for "breaking above $105" and "breaking above $130" are 100% and 2.4% respectively, and neither is adjusted.
57. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude continues to trade below $95, last at $94.865, further cementing the drop below the $95 threshold.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to slide after breaking below $95. Cailian Press reported at 20:35 Beijing time on September 17 that WTI crude futures fell to $94.865 per barrel, a drop of 2.71%. This is the most recent price evidence in this period, confirming that prices are consistently running below the $95 threshold. The previous day's close of $102.43 is now history, with oil prices accelerating their decline following the Fed's rate hike. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' rose from 85% to 87.5%. As this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is running below it, no additional news evidence adjustment is applied. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' fell from 55.3% to 52.2%, but with the current price still about $5 away from $90, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' are 100% and 2.35% respectively, and neither is adjusted.
58. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI crude accelerated its decline, last at $94.64, further cementing the drop below $95 and beginning to approach the $90 threshold.; News evidence in this period shows WTI crude oil futures continuing to slide after breaking below $95. The latest TradeAlpha report (index 0) shows WTI crude falling nearly 3% to $94.64 per barrel, the lowest price evidence in this period, confirming the decline is accelerating. An earlier CLS report (index 1) also confirmed the price at $94.865. Although prices hovered above $95 earlier in the session, the most recent data indicates persistent selling pressure. On the probability front, the final likelihood for 'Drop below $95' is 87.5%, unchanged from the previous period. Its baseline likelihood fell from 87.5% to 82.5%. Given this scenario has been repeatedly confirmed and the current price is below the threshold, this baseline decline is inconsistent with the news facts, warranting a +5 percentage point news evidence adjustment to maintain the final likelihood at 87.5%. The final likelihood for 'Drop below $90' is 52.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous 52.2%, with a baseline likelihood also at 52.9%. With the current price still about $4.6 away, there is no direct evidence to support its occurrence, so no adjustment is made. The final likelihood for 'Break above $105' is 100%, unchanged from the previous period, with no adjustment. The final likelihood for 'Break above $130' is 2.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous 2.4%, with a baseline likelihood of 2.3% and no adjustment.
59. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI's decline continues, last at $94.64, repeatedly confirming the drop below $95, but evidence for a fall below $90 remains insufficient.; The latest news evidence further cements the downward trend in oil prices. The most recent TradeAlpha report (index 0) shows WTI crude fell to $94.64/barrel, the lowest price evidence in this period, confirming that selling pressure persists. A Cailian Press report (index 1) also provided a price of $94.865, consistent with the above information. Although prices hovered above $95 earlier in the session, the latest data indicates no rebound after breaking below that threshold. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' rose slightly from 82.5% to 83%, aligning with the news facts and requiring no additional adjustment. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' fell from 52.9% to 49.65%, but with the current price still about $4.6 away from $90 and no direct news evidence suggesting an acceleration of the decline to that level, no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' remain at 100% and 2.3% respectively, with no changes or adjustments.
60. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI's decline accelerates, last at $94.64, repeatedly confirming the drop below $95, but evidence for a fall below $90 remains insufficient.; This period's news evidence further solidifies the downward trend in oil prices. The latest TradeAlpha report (index 1) shows WTI crude has fallen to $94.64 per barrel, the lowest price evidence in this period, confirming that selling pressure persists. A Cailian Press report (index 2) also provided a price of $94.865, consistent with this information. Although early intraday prices were above $95, the latest data indicates that oil prices have not rebounded after breaking below $95. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $95' decreased from 83% to 81%, aligning with the news facts and requiring no additional adjustment. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $90' fell from 49.65% to 46.25%, but the current price is still about $4.6 away from $90, and no direct news evidence suggests the decline will accelerate to that level, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'Hit $105' and 'Hit $130' are 100% and 1.7% respectively, both unchanged, and no adjustments are made.
61. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI's decline accelerates, last at $94.64, repeatedly confirming the drop below $95, but evidence for a fall below $90 remains insufficient.; This period's news evidence further solidifies the downward trend in oil prices. The latest TradeAlpha report (index 1) shows WTI crude has fallen to $94.64 per barrel, the lowest price evidence in this period, confirming that selling pressure persists. A Cailian Press report (index 2) also provided a price of $94.865, consistent with the above information. Although early intraday prices were above $95, the latest data indicates no rebound after the drop below that threshold. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $95' fell from 81% to 77%, consistent with the news direction, requiring no additional adjustment. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $90' fell from 46.25% to 44.05%, but the current price is still about $4.6 away from $90, and there is no direct news evidence suggesting the decline will accelerate to that level, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'Break above $105' and 'Break above $130' remain at 100% and 1.7% respectively, with no changes or adjustments.
62. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly broke below $95 intraday before rebounding, with the latest settlement at $101.91. The drop below $95 has been confirmed by intraday lows, but the closing price recovery weakens the urgency of sustained downside.; This period's news evidence shows WTI experiencing sharp intraday volatility, falling first then rebounding. Multiple intraday reports (indices 1, 2, 3) confirmed WTI briefly broke below $95, hitting a low of $94.64, providing direct and repeated evidence for the "drop below $95" scenario. However, the latest settlement report (index 0) shows the October WTI futures settled back at $101.91, indicating that selling pressure was partially absorbed before the close, returning prices to the core $95-$105 range. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for "drop below $95" rose from 77% to 80.5%, consistent with the intraday break below $95, requiring no additional adjustment. The baseline likelihood for "drop below $90" edged up from 44.05% to 44.2%, but the current price remains far from $90 with no news evidence suggesting an acceleration of the decline, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for "break above $105" and "break above $130" remain at 100% and 1.7% respectively, with no changes or adjustments.
63. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly broke below $95 intraday before rebounding to settle at $101.91. The drop below $95 has been confirmed by intraday lows, but the closing recovery weakens the urgency of further downside.; This period's news evidence further solidifies the fact that WTI broke below $95 intraday. Multiple reports (indices 1, 2, 4) repeatedly confirmed prices touched a low of $94.64, providing direct and sufficient evidence for the 'drop below $95' scenario. However, the latest settlement report (index 0) shows the October WTI futures settled back at $101.91, indicating selling pressure was partially absorbed before the close and prices returned to the $95-$105 core range. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' rose from 80.5% to 84%, consistent with the news of the intraday break below $95, requiring no additional adjustment. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' edged up from 44.05% to 44.55%, but the current price remains far from $90 and no news evidence suggests the decline will accelerate to that level, so no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' remain at 100% and 1.7% respectively, unchanged and unadjusted.
64. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI accelerated its decline after the Fed rate hike, with both intraday and closing prices clearly breaking below $95, further cementing the drop below $95 scenario.; News evidence this period significantly strengthens the case for WTI falling below $95. Unlike the previous reliance on intraday lows, the latest reports (indices 0, 1, 2, 3) show that on September 18, WTI not only consistently traded below $96 intraday but also settled at $96.13, marking a closing price that has officially breached the $95 threshold. The Fed's 25-basis-point rate hike (index 5) was widely reported as the core catalyst triggering this sell-off in risk assets, including crude oil. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'falling below $95' rose from 84% to 87.5%, consistent with the news of further price declines, requiring no additional adjustment. The baseline likelihood for 'falling below $90' increased from 44.55% to 46.65%; although the current price is still some distance from $90, the news evidence of an accelerating downturn justifies this moderate rise, and no adjustment is made. The baseline likelihoods for 'breaking above $105' and 'breaking above $130' remain at 100% and 1.5%, respectively, with no changes or adjustments.
65. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI fell further intraday to $95.53 but has not yet decisively broken below $95, introducing new uncertainty to the drop-below-$95 scenario.; The latest news evidence shows WTI extended its decline after the Fed rate hike, but an intraday price rebound has cast doubt on the previously confirmed 'drop below $95' scenario. The most recent report (index 0) shows WTI fell to $95.53 intraday, a level still above the critical $95 threshold. This contradicts the prior judgment that 'both intraday and closing prices have clearly broken below $95,' indicating a battle around this key level. In terms of probabilities, the final likelihood for 'drop below $95' is 88.5%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous 87.5%. The baseline likelihood rose from 87.5% to 91.5%, consistent with prices hovering near lows, but the rebound detail is not fully absorbed. We therefore apply a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment to reflect the latest price being above $95. The final likelihood for 'drop below $90' is 46.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous 46.7%, with prices still far from $90, so no adjustment is made. The final likelihoods for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' remain at 100% and 1.4% respectively, with no changes or adjustments.
66. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly approached the $95 threshold intraday but rebounded above $96, reclaiming the $95 level and introducing new uncertainty to the drop-below-$95 scenario.; News evidence this period shows WTI experienced sharp intraday volatility, with the $95 threshold briefly lost and then reclaimed. The latest report (index 0) shows WTI fell to an intraday low of $95.53, but this price remains above the critical $95 psychological level. This contradicts the previous judgment that prices had clearly broken below $95 both intraday and at close, indicating a battle around the $95 mark. Subsequent reports (indices 1, 2) show prices rebounded to $96.03, further weakening the certainty of the 'drop below $95' scenario. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $95' is 92.5%, consistent with prices hovering near $95, but the rebound detail is not fully absorbed. We therefore apply a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment to reflect the latest price being above $95, resulting in a final probability of 89.5%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous 88.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'Drop below $90' is 52.2%, and with prices still distant from $90, no adjustment is made, resulting in a final probability of 52.2%, up 5.6 percentage points from the previous 46.6%. The final probabilities for 'Hit $105' and 'Hit $130' remain at 100% and 1.4% respectively, with no changes.
67. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly touched the $95 threshold intraday but rebounded above $96, introducing new uncertainty to the drop-below-$95 scenario, with a final probability of 93%.; This period's news evidence shows WTI experienced sharp intraday volatility, losing and then reclaiming the $95 level. The latest report (index 0) shows WTI touched $95 intraday, right at the key psychological threshold, without a clear break below. This contradicts the previous judgment that prices had clearly broken below $95, indicating a battle at this level. Subsequent updates (indices 1, 2) show a rebound to $96.03, further weakening the certainty of the drop-below-$95 scenario. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' is 96.0%, which aligns directionally with the news of prices hovering near $95, but the rebound detail is not fully absorbed. We therefore apply a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment to reflect the latest price being above $95, resulting in a final probability of 93%, up 3.5 pp from the previous 89.5%. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' is 53.5%; with prices still far from $90, no adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 53.5%, up 1.3 pp from 52.2%. The final probabilities for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' remain at 100% and 1.3%, with changes of +0.0 pp and -0.1 pp respectively.
68. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly touched the $95 threshold intraday but rebounded above $96, introducing new uncertainty to the drop-below-$95 scenario, with a final probability of 89%.; News evidence this period shows WTI experienced sharp intraday volatility, briefly losing and then reclaiming the $95 level. The latest report (index 0) shows WTI touched $95 intraday, but this remains a key psychological threshold and was not decisively breached. This contradicts the prior judgment that prices had clearly fallen below $95, indicating a tug-of-war at this level. Subsequent updates (indices 1, 2) show a rebound to $96.03, further weakening the certainty of the 'drop below $95' scenario. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' is 92%, which aligns directionally with the news of prices hovering near $95, but the detail of the rebound has not been fully absorbed. We therefore apply a -3 percentage point news evidence adjustment to reflect the latest price being above $95, resulting in a final probability of 89%, down 4.0 points from the prior 93%. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $90' is 49.7%; with prices still distant from $90, no adjustment is made, leaving the final probability at 49.7%, down 3.8 points from the prior 53.5%. The final probabilities for 'break above $105' and 'break above $130' remain at 100% and 1.3%, respectively.
69. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly broke below $95 intraday, and with the baseline likelihood surging to 99.8%, the drop-below-$95 scenario is nearly a foregone conclusion.; News evidence this period conclusively shows WTI broke below the $95 threshold intraday. The latest reports (indices 0, 1) indicate the October and November WTI contracts fell to $95.09 and lost the $95 handle, respectively, reversing the prior judgment's 'rebound above $96' narrative and directly confirming the drop-below-$95 scenario. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood for 'hitting $95' has surged from 92% to 99.8%, perfectly aligning with the news of the price breach. Given the baseline is near certainty and the news merely confirms it, we apply no additional news evidence adjustment, keeping the final probability at 99.8%. Other outcomes saw minimal baseline movement and lack supporting news, so no adjustments are made.
70. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly broke below $95 before rebounding to $99.81, confirming the drop-below-$95 scenario, though prices remain highly volatile.; The latest news further cements the certainty of the "drop below $95" outcome. Fresh reports show the October WTI contract rebounding to $99.81 after a sharp intraday sell-off (index 0), while the November contract had earlier definitively breached the $95 mark (index 3) and the October contract touched a low of $95.09 (index 2). Despite the price bounce, the fact that it traded below $95 intraday is now indisputable, fully consistent with the prior judgment. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for "drop below $95" has ticked up from 99.8% to 99.95%, nearly fully pricing in the event. As this outcome has already occurred and the baseline is near 100%, we apply no additional news evidence adjustment. Other outcomes saw minimal baseline movement and lack any supporting news evidence, so no adjustments are made.
71. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly broke below $95 before rebounding to $99.81, confirming the drop-below-$95 scenario, though prices remain highly volatile.; The latest news evidence further solidifies the certainty of the "drop below $95" outcome. The most recent report shows the October WTI contract rebounding to $99.81 after an intraday plunge (index 0), while the November contract had already clearly breached the $95 mark (index 3) and the October contract touched a low of $95.09 (index 2). Although prices have recovered somewhat, the fact of an intraday break below $95 is indisputable, fully consistent with the prior judgment. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for "drop below $95" has ticked up from 99.8% to 99.95%, nearly fully priced in. Given that this outcome has already occurred and the baseline likelihood is near 100%, we apply no additional news evidence adjustment. Baseline movements for other outcomes are minimal, and no news evidence supports their occurrence, so no adjustments are made.
72. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly broke below $95 before rebounding to $99.81, confirming the drop-below-$95 scenario, though prices remain highly volatile.; The latest news further solidifies the certainty of the 'drop below $95' outcome. Recent reports show the October WTI contract rebounded to $99.81 after an intraday plunge (index 0), while the November contract had already definitively breached the $95 mark (index 2) and the October contract touched a low of $95.09 (index 1). Although prices have recovered somewhat, the fact that the price broke below $95 intraday is indisputable, fully consistent with the previous judgment. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' has edged up from 99.8% to 99.95%, nearly fully priced in. Given that this outcome has already occurred and the baseline likelihood is near 100%, we apply no additional news evidence adjustment. Other outcomes saw minimal baseline movement and lack supporting news evidence, so no adjustments are made.
73. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly broke below $95 before rebounding to $99.81, confirming the drop-below-$95 scenario, though prices remain highly volatile.; The news evidence in this period further solidifies the certainty of the "drop below $95" outcome. The latest reports show the October WTI contract rebounded to $99.81 after a sharp intraday drop (index 0), while the November contract had already clearly breached the $95 mark (index 2) and the October contract touched a low of $95.09 (index 1). Although prices recovered somewhat, the fact that the price broke below $95 during the session is indisputable, fully consistent with the prior judgment. In terms of probability, the baseline likelihood for "drop below $95" has ticked up from 99.8% to 99.95%, nearly fully priced in. Given that this outcome has already occurred and the baseline likelihood is near 100%, we apply no additional news evidence adjustment. The baseline likelihoods for other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports their occurrence, so no adjustments are made.
74. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — WTI briefly broke below $95 before rebounding to $99.81, confirming the drop-below-$95 scenario, though prices remain highly volatile.; The news evidence in this period further solidifies the certainty of the "drop below $95" outcome. The latest reports show WTI's October contract rebounding to $99.81 after an intraday plunge (index 0), while the November contract had already clearly breached the $95 mark earlier (index 3) and the October contract touched a low of $95.09 (index 2). Although prices have recovered somewhat, the fact of an intraday break below $95 is indisputable, fully consistent with the prior judgment. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood for "drop below $95" has ticked up from 99.8% to 99.95%, nearly fully priced in. Given that this outcome has already occurred and the baseline likelihood is near 100%, we apply no additional news evidence adjustment. Baseline movements for other outcomes are minimal, and no news evidence supports their occurrence, so no adjustments are made there either.
75. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Saudi supply cut news pushed WTI back above $96, but the intraday break below $95 is confirmed, keeping the drop-below-$95 outcome unchanged.; The latest news evidence shows that Saudi Arabia's notification to European refiners of a supply cut next month (index 0) pushed WTI up $0.69 in five minutes to $96.16/barrel, with further gains to $95.80 (index 1). This sudden supply-side development provided short-term support for prices but does not alter the fundamental fact that WTI had already broken below $95 intraday. Reviewing the full price trajectory within this window, WTI experienced extreme volatility: first plunging from above $100 to $95.09 (index 4), with the November contract clearly losing the $95 handle (index 5), before rebounding on the Saudi news. Despite the bounce, the drop-below-$95 scenario has already materialized intraday, and the baseline likelihood remains at 99.95%, nearly fully priced. Other outcomes saw minimal baseline movement with no supporting news evidence, so no adjustments are made.
76. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Saudi supply cut news pushed WTI back above $97, but the intraday break below $95 is confirmed, keeping the drop-below-$95 outcome unchanged.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude rebounding strongly above $97 after an early-session plunge, driven by Saudi supply cut news. Reports that Saudi Arabia notified European refiners of reduced supplies next month (index 3) triggered a sharp $0.69 surge to $96.16 per barrel within five minutes, with prices subsequently climbing to $97.355 (index 0), reclaiming the $97 handle. This supply-side shock provided short-term support but did not alter the fundamental fact that prices had already broken below $95 intraday. Looking at the full price trajectory within this window, WTI experienced violent swings: first plunging from above $100 to $95.09 (index 7), with the November contract explicitly losing the $95 level (index 8), before rebounding on the Saudi news. Despite the recovery, the drop-below-$95 scenario has already materialized intraday, with the baseline likelihood holding at 99.95%—essentially fully priced. Other outcomes saw minimal baseline movement and lack news evidence to support any adjustment.
77. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Saudi supply cut news pushed WTI back above $97, but the intraday break below $95 is confirmed, keeping the drop-below-$95 outcome unchanged.; The latest news evidence shows WTI crude rebounding strongly after an early-session plunge, driven by news of Saudi supply cuts. Reports that Saudi Arabia notified European refiners of reduced supplies next month (index 3) triggered a $0.69 surge in five minutes to $96.16 per barrel, with prices later climbing to $97.355 (index 0), reclaiming the $97 level. This supply-side shock provided short-term support but does not alter the fundamental fact that prices had already broken below $95 intraday. Reviewing the full price trajectory within this window, WTI experienced violent swings: first plunging from above $100 to $95.09 (index 7), with the November contract explicitly losing the $95 handle (index 8), before rebounding on the Saudi news. Despite the recovery, the drop-below-$95 scenario has already occurred intraday, and the baseline likelihood remains at 99.9%, nearly fully priced in. Other outcomes show minimal baseline movement and lack supporting news evidence, so no adjustments are made.
78. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Saudi supply cut news pushed WTI back above $97, but the intraday break below $95 is confirmed, keeping the drop-below-$95 outcome unchanged.; During this judgment window, WTI crude experienced a sharp sell-off followed by a strong rebound. In early trading, oil prices plunged from above $100, with the October contract briefly collapsing $6 to $95.09 (index 7) and the November contract clearly losing the $95 handle (index 8), confirming that the 'drop below $95' scenario had already occurred intraday. Subsequently, news that Saudi Arabia notified European refineries of supply cuts next month (index 3) triggered a powerful rebound, with WTI surging $0.69 in five minutes to $96.16 and climbing further to $97.355 (index 0), reclaiming the $97 level. While this unexpected supply-side development provided short-term support, it does not alter the fundamental fact that prices broke below $95 during the session. The baseline likelihood for the 'drop below $95' outcome remains at 99.95%, nearly fully priced in. Other outcomes saw minimal baseline movement and lack supporting news evidence, so no adjustments are made.
79. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Trump-Houthi negotiation news pushed WTI further down to $96.15, but no intraday break below $95 occurred in this window; the drop-below-$95 outcome remains confirmed, with no change to other outcomes.; Oil prices extended declines in this window but did not test the $95 level. Trump stated the US is negotiating with the Houthis and that the group wants a deal (index 0), fueling expectations of easing geopolitical tensions and sending WTI down 1.11% to $96.153 (index 0), the session low for this window. The intraday break below $95 confirmed in the prior window (October contract at $95.09, November contract losing $95) was neither refreshed nor reversed. Baseline likelihoods show the drop-below-$95 outcome at 99.95%, fully pricing in that event; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports any adjustment.
80. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — Oil prices retreated from above the $100 mark but remain far from $105; the drop-below-$95 outcome is confirmed, with no change to other outcomes.; During this window, WTI crude briefly settled at $100.30 but lacked further upward momentum, remaining significantly distant from the $105 threshold. News evidence shows oil prices were under pressure on September 18, as Trump's comments on negotiations with the Houthis (Index 5) and expectations of easing Middle East tensions pushed WTI down to an intraday low of $96.153. Although prices rebounded on news of Saudi supply cuts to Europe (Index 9), the contract still settled 1.58% lower at $100.30 (Index 3, 4). The previously confirmed intraday break below $95 was neither refreshed nor reversed in this period. The baseline likelihood for 'drop below $95' remains at 99.95%, fully pricing in that scenario; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
81. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — Oil prices fluctuated around the $100 mark, briefly dipping below $96 before rebounding, but remain far from $105; the drop-below-$95 outcome is confirmed, with no change to other outcomes.; During this window, WTI crude oil futures continued the choppy pattern from the prior period. News evidence shows that Trump's comments on negotiations with the Houthis (index 5) pressured prices down to $96.153, but a subsequent report of Saudi Arabia cutting supply to Europe (index 10) pushed prices back above $97. The October contract ultimately settled 1.58% lower at $100.30 (indices 3, 4), failing to break through key resistance. On the baseline likelihood front, the 'drop below $95' outcome remains at 99.95%, fully pricing in that scenario; other outcomes show minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
82. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — Oil prices are under pressure around the $100 mark, briefly dipping below $96 before rebounding, but remain far from $105; the drop-below-$95 outcome is confirmed, with no change to other outcomes.; During this window, WTI crude oil futures continued the choppy pattern seen in the prior period. News evidence shows that Trump's remarks about negotiations with the Houthis (index 5) briefly pressured prices down to $96.153, but a subsequent report that Saudi Arabia was cutting supplies to Europe (index 10) pushed prices back above $97. Ultimately, the October contract settled down 1.58% at $100.30 (indexes 3, 4), failing to break through key resistance. In the baseline likelihoods, the 'drop below $95' outcome remains at 100%, fully pricing in that scenario; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
83. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — Oil prices oscillate in the $95-$100 range, briefly dipping below $96 before rebounding, but remain far from $105; the drop-below-$95 outcome is confirmed, with no change to other outcomes.; During this window, WTI crude oil futures continued the choppy pattern from the prior period. News evidence shows that Trump's remarks about negotiating with the Houthis (Index 3) briefly pressured prices down to $96.153, but prices subsequently rebounded from the lows to $97.355 (Index 5). Ultimately, the October contract settled down 1.58% at $100.30 (Indices 1, 2), failing to break through key resistance levels. In terms of baseline likelihoods, the 'drop below $95' outcome remains at 100%, fully pricing in that scenario; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
84. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — Oil prices oscillate in the $95-$100 range, briefly dipping below $96 before rebounding, but remain far from $105; the drop-below-$95 outcome is confirmed, with no change to other outcomes.; During this window, WTI crude oil futures continued the oscillating pattern from the prior period. News evidence shows that Trump's comments about negotiating with the Houthis (index 6) briefly pushed prices down to $96.153, but they rebounded from the low to $97.355 (index 5). Ultimately, the October contract settled down 1.58% at $100.30 (indices 3, 4, 5), failing to effectively break through key resistance levels. In the baseline likelihood, the 'drop below $95' outcome remains at 100%, fully pricing in that scenario; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
85. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — Oil prices fluctuate within the $95-$100 range, rebounding slightly to near $97 at the start of the new week, but remain far from $105; the confirmed sub-$95 outcome is unchanged, with no material progress on other outcomes.; During this judgment window, WTI crude oil futures continued to oscillate within the $95-$100 range. At the start of the new trading week, prices rebounded slightly from last week's close of $95.47 (Index 2), opening at $96.5 and $97.015 respectively (Indices 0, 1), but failed to stage a decisive breakout. On the geopolitical front, new US sanctions on Russia and Iran, along with Trump's comments on negotiations with the Houthis (Index 3), provided some support to the market but did not trigger sharp volatility. Regarding baseline likelihoods, both the 'drop below $95' and 'break above $105' outcomes remain at 100%, fully priced in; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
86. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — Oil prices fluctuate within the $95-$97 range, rebounding at Monday's open before quickly retreating, still far from $105; the confirmed sub-$95 outcome is unchanged, with no material progress on other outcomes.; During this period, WTI crude oil futures rose initially before falling back. At Monday's open, prices extended their rebound, briefly touching $97.015 per barrel (index 4), but the rally failed to hold and quickly retreated to $95.12 per barrel (index 0), erasing all gains. This price action indicates that the market continues to face significant selling pressure above the $95 level, failing to achieve a meaningful breakout. Regarding baseline likelihoods, both the 'fall below $95' and 'break above $105' outcomes remain at 100%, fully priced in; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
87. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — Oil prices fell below $95 intraday, maintaining the confirmed 'sub-$95' outcome; no material progress on other outcomes.; During this period, WTI crude oil futures extended their pattern of initial gains followed by declines, ultimately breaking below the $95 mark. Prices rebounded to $97.015 per barrel at Monday's open (Index 7), but the rally was short-lived, with prices steadily retreating thereafter. A CLS report showed prices falling to $95.12 per barrel (Index 2), and a subsequent Jinshi flash update confirmed a further drop to $94.31 per barrel (Index 0), an intraday decline of over 1%. This price action indicates persistent selling pressure above the $95 level, preventing a sustained breakout. Regarding baseline likelihoods, both the 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes remain at 100%, fully priced in; other outcomes show minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
88. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — Oil prices accelerated their decline, falling below $93.50 intraday, further cementing the confirmed 'sub-$95' outcome; no material progress on other outcomes.; During this window, WTI crude oil futures extended the previous session's decline and accelerated their losses. The latest flash from Jin10 Data shows prices tumbled to $93.31 per barrel (Index 0), an intraday drop of over 2%, marking a full dollar decline from the $94.31 level noted in the prior judgment (Index 2). A Cailian Press report also confirmed the weakness at $94.15 (Index 1). Although prices briefly rebounded above $97 earlier in the session on US-Iran geopolitical tensions (Index 5, 9), selling pressure quickly overwhelmed the risk premium, indicating extremely bearish market sentiment. On the baseline likelihoods, both the 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes remain at 100%, fully priced in; other outcomes saw minimal movement with no news evidence to support an adjustment.
89. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — Oil's decline intensified, hitting a new intraday low of $93.31, fully confirming the 'sub-$95' outcome; no material change for other outcomes.; Selling pressure on WTI crude intensified during this window, pushing prices further down from the $94.31 level noted in the previous judgment. A fresh Jinshi flash update reported that oil had tumbled to $93.31 per barrel (Index 0), a drop of over 2% and the lowest intraday price recorded in this monitoring cycle. A Cailian Press report also confirmed the weak performance at $94.15 (Index 3). Although prices briefly spiked above $97 earlier in the session due to geopolitical tensions (Index 1, 7), concerns over the demand outlook and a broader risk-off sentiment completely dominated trading, quickly erasing those gains and driving a deep decline. In terms of baseline likelihoods, both the 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes remain at 100%, fully priced in; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no news evidence supports an adjustment.
90. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — Oil prices are consolidating weakly near the $95 mark, briefly dipping below $94 intraday without a new decisive break; the 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes are settled, with no material change for others.; During this window, WTI crude oil prices continued their prior weak pattern but did not form a new directional breakout. The latest flash from Jin10 Data showed prices briefly rallying early Monday before quickly retreating, hitting an intraday low of $94.31 (index 3), extending the downward momentum from the end of the last judgment period. A simultaneous report from Cailian Press also confirmed the sluggish performance near $95.12 (index 7). While the intraday low reaffirmed the reality of prices operating below $95, it did not breach the $93.31 low recorded in the previous judgment, indicating persistent but not intensifying selling pressure. Regarding baseline likelihoods, both the 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes remain at 100%, fully priced in; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no new evidence supports an adjustment.
91. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — Oil prices are consolidating weakly near the $95 mark, briefly dipping below $94 intraday without a new decisive break; the 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes are settled, with no material change for others.; Within this window, WTI crude oil prices extended their prior weak pattern without forming a new trend-defining break. The latest Jin10 flash report showed prices briefly spiking at the Monday open before quickly retreating, dipping to $94.31 intraday (index 3), continuing the downward inertia from the end of the last judgment period. A simultaneous CLS report also confirmed the sluggish performance near $95.12 (index 7). Although the intraday low reaffirmed the reality of prices running below $95, it did not breach the $93.31 low noted in the previous judgment, indicating that while selling pressure persists, it has not intensified significantly. On the baseline likelihoods, both the 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes remain at 100%, fully priced in; other outcomes saw minimal movement, and no new evidence supports a news-driven adjustment.
92. Sep 22, 2026 UTC — Oil prices accelerated their decline, breaking below $92 intraday, reinforcing the settled 'sub-$95' outcome and significantly raising the likelihood of touching the $90 mark.; During this judgment window, WTI crude oil's decline intensified, providing strong support for the 'Touch $90' outcome. A new Jin10 Data flash reported that oil prices plunged intraday on Monday, breaking below the $92 mark (index 11) with a daily drop exceeding 3.4%. This starkly contrasts with the earlier weak performance of a brief rally followed by a retreat (index 3), indicating a sharp increase in selling pressure. Based on this, we applied a +4 percentage-point news evidence adjustment to the 'Touch $90' outcome, raising its baseline likelihood from 56% to 60%. The final probability for this outcome is 60%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous 57.7%. The 'Fall below $95' and 'Break above $105' outcomes were fully settled by prior evidence, with final probabilities remaining at 100%. The 'Break above $130' outcome lacks new supporting evidence, and its final probability remains at 1.5%.
93. Sep 23, 2026 UTC — Oil prices broke below the $90 mark, further cementing the settled 'sub-$95' outcome and directly triggering the '$90 touched' outcome.; During this judgment window, WTI crude oil prices extended last week's decline and accelerated their losses, providing decisive evidence for the '$90 touched' outcome. A Cailian Press flash (index 8) showed prices breaking below the $90 mark intraday on Tuesday, hitting $89.86 per barrel with a daily drop of 2.72%. Subsequently, Jinshi Data (index 10) reported a further rapid $1 plunge to $89.60 per barrel, indicating sustained and intense selling pressure. Based on this, we applied a +10 percentage point news evidence adjustment to the '$90 touched' outcome, raising its baseline likelihood from 56% to 66%. The final probability for this outcome is 66%, up 6 percentage points from the previous 60%. The 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes remain fully settled by prior evidence at 100%. The 'above $130' outcome lacks new supporting evidence and remains at 1.5%.
94. Sep 24, 2026 UTC — Oil prices are consolidating weakly below $90, further cementing the settled 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes.; During this judgment window, WTI crude oil prices continued their weak trend after breaking below $90, providing further confirmatory evidence for the '$90 touched' outcome. CLS (index 8) and Jinshi (index 9) reports from the prior period already documented the breach of the $90 level. No new price flashes appeared in this window, suggesting the market is consolidating weakly around the $89-$90 area without a strong rebound. We therefore maintain the prior period's news evidence adjustment for the '$90 touched' outcome, keeping its final probability at 66%. The 'sub-$95' and 'above $105' outcomes have been fully settled by prior evidence, with final probabilities remaining at 100%. The 'above $130' outcome lacks new supporting evidence, and its final probability remains at 1.5%.
95. Sep 25, 2026 UTC — Oil prices are hovering weakly around $90, further cementing the settled 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes.; During this judgment window, WTI crude oil prices continued to consolidate weakly around the $90 mark. Jin10 data (index 10) reported prices falling to $91.94, while tradealpha (index 11) showed a brief recovery back above $90, indicating a lack of clear direction and a tug-of-war near this level after the initial breakdown. As the 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes have been fully confirmed by prior evidence, their baseline likelihoods remain at 100%. No new price flashes this period showed a rebound toward $95 or $105, leaving the '$105 breached' and '$130 touched' outcomes unchanged.
96. Sep 26, 2026 UTC — Oil prices are hovering weakly around $90, further cementing the settled 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes.; During this window, WTI crude oil continued its weak consolidation around the $90 mark. Jin10 data (index 3) reported prices falling to $91.94, while tradealpha (index 8) showed a brief recovery above $90, indicating a lack of clear direction and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears after the break below $90. As the 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes have been fully settled by prior evidence, their baseline likelihoods remain at 100%. No new price flashes showed a rebound to $95 or $105, leaving the 'break above $105' and 'touch $130' outcomes unchanged.
97. Sep 27, 2026 UTC — Oil prices are seesawing around the $90 mark, with no new price flashes altering the settled 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes.; During this judgment window, WTI crude oil prices continued to hover weakly around the $90 level, with no new price flashes reported. Prior evidence has already fully confirmed that oil prices fell below $95 and touched $90 in September, so the 'sub-$95' and '$90 touched' outcomes are completely settled, with their baseline likelihoods remaining at 100%. In the absence of new price data, the judgment is maintained, with no signs of a rebound toward $105 or $130.
98. Oct 10, 2026 UTC — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.