If Demacia Cup postponed past Oct 26, resolves 50-50: market divergence?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal 1 match between BNK FEARX and JD Gaming in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against BNK FEARX. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "比赛延期导致市场按50-50结算，而实际比赛有明确胜负，造成偏差。", with a our assessmentestimate of 100%.; The supplied evidence shows the 2026 Demacia Cup ran from October 3 to 17, JDG advanced to the final round on October 5, and BFX had a match record on October 3. However, the evidence does not mention a JDG vs BFX quarterfinal on October 12, nor does it describe any postponement rule or 50-50 settlement clause. Therefore, this report cannot confirm whether that match took place as scheduled, nor assess whether the postponement rule could cause a divergence between market outcomes and actual results. The key uncertainty is the actual status of that match and the specifics of its settlement rules.
3. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.