Oil Markets Ignore Mounting Risks at Their Own Peril
Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities, including US strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure and Tehran's attack on a Kuwaiti power plant, have driven Hormuz Strait tanker traffic near zero. Despite this, ICE Brent trades around $86/bbl as diplomacy stalls. China's crude imports plunged 41% year-on-year in June to 7.12 million b/d, the lowest since 2016. The US military has redirected two Iran-bound ships under a revived naval blockade. Iraq suspended loadings after a drone scare, and India banned seafarers from Hormuz voyages. The IEA warns the global economy faces serious trouble unless Hormuz reopens within weeks. India nearly doubled diesel and jet fuel export taxes. Pakistan paid $20.7/MMBtu for emergency LNG. Nickel surged to a three-week high as sulphur shipments are disrupted. Pirates seized a tanker off Yemen. ConocoPhillips will acquire a 42% stake in BP's Iraq venture. The US will impose 25% tariffs on $7 billion of Brazilian goods. Russia seeks gasoline from India after Ukrainian strikes. Australia's only manganese smelter will close.
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