The Hormuz Choke Point And The Twilight Of Petroleum – OpEd
This Op-Ed by Juan Cole analyzes a hypothetical global energy crisis triggered by an illegal war on Iran launched by Israel and the US in February 2026. In response, Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, removing 11-13% of global petroleum supply and causing severe fuel shortages and price spikes worldwide. The crisis disproportionately affects Asia and Europe, with countries like the Philippines declaring national emergencies, South Korea facing economic cataclysm, and Bangladesh suffering refinery closures and power outages. Even the US and Europe face significant disruptions, with airlines cutting flights and consumers paying record prices. The author argues this event marks a watershed moment, akin to the 'twilight of petroleum,' forcing a rapid but painful shift away from fossil fuels. The article draws parallels to the 1970s oil crises but emphasizes the unique severity and potential long-term structural changes in the global economy, including stagflation. It highlights the geopolitical repercussions, such as diplomatic tensions between South Korea and Israel, and underscores the vulnerability of nations heavily reliant on Hormuz transit routes.
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