Why oil prices haven't gone crazy despite 5 months of US-Iran war
Despite a five-month US-Israel war with Iran that began in late February 2026, oil prices have not surged as analysts initially predicted, with Brent crude peaking around $126 per barrel, well below the 2008 all-time high of $147. The article outlines five key reasons: China, the world's largest oil importer, unexpectedly slashed crude imports to near-decade lows by June, curbed fuel exports, and increased use of electric taxis; the US pumped a record 13.93 million barrels per day by April and released 400 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve via the IEA; President Trump repeatedly made statements about peace deals and Hormuz flows, causing market volatility and reducing bullish bets; Saudi Arabia sharply increased shipments from its Red Sea Yanbu port, offsetting Hormuz disruptions; and traders report ample supply of prompt physical oil, with European crude differentials falling to a discount. The analysis notes that while the market is currently stable, the situation may not last.
Editorial responsibility
- No named human review is recorded for this page.
- Reports are grouped by semantic similarity and deterministic rules. Language models may assist titles, summaries, translation and cross-source analysis; the page itself is projected from evidence records.
- Current automated evidence projection