US dollar fluctuates as US-Iran conflict ends with peace deal
In June 2026, the US dollar initially weakened on in-line May CPI data, then recovered as crude surged amid escalating US-Iran hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz, including airstrikes and missile exchanges. After President Trump canceled further strikes and signaled a peace deal, the dollar fell sharply on safe-haven unwinding. The eventual US-Iran peace deal ended the conflict, reopening the Strait, crashing oil prices, and pressuring the dollar further. The ECB and BOJ responded with rate hikes, while markets priced in steady Fed policy.
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Greenback Steadies as Middle East Escalation Counters Soft US Inflation
On July 15, 2026, the US dollar (greenback) remained steady in London trading as investors weighed two opposing factors: renewed US military strikes on Iran, which typically boost the dollar as a safe-haven asset, and softer-than-expected US inflation data, which pressures the dollar by reducing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The US dollar index, tracking the currency against six major peers, edged up less than 0.1% to 100.97, reflecting the market's balanced response to geopolitical tensions and economic signals. The article highlights the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand from Middle East escalation and dovish monetary policy implications from weak inflation.
The Business TimesDollar Steadies as Middle East Escalation Counters Soft US Inflation
The US dollar held steady on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, as investors weighed two opposing factors: renewed US military strikes on Iran, which typically boost safe-haven demand for the dollar, and softer-than-expected US inflation data, which could reduce the likelihood of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, edged up less than 0.1% to 100.97. The balance between geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing inflation pressures kept the dollar range-bound, with markets awaiting further cues on both the conflict and monetary policy direction.
The Business TimesGreenback Steadies as Middle East Escalation Counters Soft US Inflation
On Wednesday, July 15, 2026, the US dollar (greenback) held steady as investors weighed two opposing factors: renewed US military strikes on Iran, which typically support the dollar as a safe haven, and softer-than-expected US inflation data, which could reduce the likelihood of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, edged up less than 0.1% to 100.97. The balance between geopolitical tensions and economic data kept the currency in a narrow range, reflecting market uncertainty about the direction of monetary policy and the potential for broader conflict in the Middle East.
The Business TimesDollar Declines on Benign US CPI Report; Gold and Euro Rally
The US dollar fell 0.32% on Tuesday after the June CPI report showed inflation easing more than expected, reducing the probability of a Fed rate hike at the July FOMC meeting from 43% to 17%. The benign CPI data weakened the dollar and boosted gold and silver prices, with gold closing up 1.60%. The euro rallied to a one-week high, supported by higher European bond yields. However, the dollar recovered from its worst levels after Fed Chair Warsh commented on economic resilience and as escalating US-Iran hostilities in the Middle East increased safe-haven demand. Crude oil prices jumped 1% to a one-month high, raising inflation expectations. The yen strengthened slightly on dovish US data and comments from Japan's Finance Minister about adding government bonds to a tax-free investment program, though gains were limited by high oil prices. The risk of Japanese intervention remains high as the yen stays above 160 per dollar.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Edges Higher on Escalating US-Iran Tension, Yen Slides on Pension Doubts
The dollar gained modestly on Monday, supported by escalating US-Iran hostilities in the Gulf and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve governor ahead of the US inflation report. President Trump announced the reinstatement of a naval blockade on Iran and vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for a fee after fresh missile and drone strikes. The yen fell after a Reuters report indicated Japan had no immediate plans to change state pension fund asset allocations, reversing Friday's rally. The dollar index rose 0.21% to 101.27, while the euro and sterling declined. Oil prices surged over 9% to a one-month high, with Brent crude settling at $83.30. Markets are focused on upcoming US CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony, with Fed funds futures pricing in about 30 basis points of rate hikes this year.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Rises with Crude Prices and Bond Yields Amid US-Iran Hostilities
The dollar index rose 0.29% on Monday, supported by safe-haven demand from escalating US-Iran hostilities, a surge in crude oil prices, and hawkish Fed comments. Over the weekend, the US launched missile attacks on Iranian air-defense and missile sites, while Iran retaliated with strikes on targets in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump announced reinstating the Iranian blockade. Crude oil surged over 9% to a 3.5-week high, raising inflation expectations and prompting potential Fed tightening. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated the FOMC may need to consider a rate hike if core inflation remains hot. EUR/USD fell to a one-week low, and USD/JPY rose 0.47% after Japan denied plans to overhaul GPIF asset allocation. Gold and silver prices plunged over 2.6% and 3.6% respectively, pressured by higher bond yields and hawkish monetary policy signals.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Supported by US-Iran Hostilities
The dollar index rose 0.15% on July 13, 2026, driven by safe-haven demand following escalating US-Iran hostilities over the weekend. The US launched missile attacks on Iranian air-defense systems and coastal radar sites, while Iran retaliated with strikes on targets in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump reinstated the Iranian blockade. A 4% surge in crude oil prices raised inflation expectations, potentially prompting Fed tightening, which supported the dollar. EUR/USD fell to a one-week low, and USD/JPY rose as Japan ruled out overhauling its pension fund's asset allocation. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply due to higher bond yields and inflation expectations, though central bank demand for gold remained supportive.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Dips as Labor Market Remains Stable and US-Iran Tensions Escalate
The U.S. dollar declined for a second consecutive session on July 9, 2026, as renewed military attacks between the United States and Iran strained a three-week-old ceasefire. Iranian forces struck U.S. military infrastructure in Gulf states following U.S. strikes on Iran's southern and eastern provinces. Oil prices eased slightly from earlier highs, with U.S. crude at $72.79 and Brent at $77.56 per barrel. The dollar index fell 0.09% to 100.93. Meanwhile, weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 2,000 to 215,000, below expectations, indicating a stable labor market. Federal Reserve minutes from the June 16-17 meeting showed growing concern about high inflation, with some policymakers advocating for an immediate rate hike. Market expectations for a July rate hike eased to 24.1%, while September hike odds stood at 63.5%. The euro rose 0.17% to $1.1434, and sterling strengthened to $1.3391. The Bank of Japan warned that the Iran war could push more firms to raise prices.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Climbs on Escalation of Middle East Hostilities
The US dollar strengthened on July 8, 2026, driven by safe-haven demand following US airstrikes on over 80 targets in Iran, escalating Middle East hostilities. President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over after Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar index rose 0.09%, supported by equity market slumps and higher crude oil prices (+6%) that raised inflation expectations, potentially keeping Fed policy tight. The euro fell 0.03% against the dollar, pressured by energy import costs and ECB hawkish comments. The yen weakened but found support from safe-haven flows and rising Japanese bond yields. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply (gold -2.14%, silver -4.28%) due to a stronger dollar and higher bond yields. Markets price a 34% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 28-29 meeting.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Drops on US Job Weakness; Yen Rallies on Intervention Fears
The US dollar index fell to a two-week low on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected June payroll report dampened expectations of Federal Reserve tightening. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000 versus the expected 113,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2%. Weekly jobless claims declined and factory orders beat expectations, but the overall labor data weighed on the dollar. The euro rose to a 1.5-week high, supported by dollar weakness and a record-low Italian unemployment rate. The yen surged against the dollar on speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in currency markets to support the yen, following a Reuters report and comments from Japan's Finance Minister. Gold and silver prices climbed to one-week highs, boosted by the weaker dollar and reduced Fed tightening expectations. WTI crude oil fell to a 4.25-month low, lowering inflation expectations.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Tumbles on Weak US Jobs Report, Gold and Silver Surge
The US dollar fell to a two-week low on July 2, 2026, following a weaker-than-expected June payroll report, which dampened speculation that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy soon. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000, far below the expected 113,000, and May figures were revised downward. Despite a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, the overall weak labor data pressured the dollar. Additionally, falling crude oil prices lowered inflation expectations, adding dovish pressure on the Fed. In currency markets, the euro rose 0.61% against the dollar, and the yen surged nearly 1% on reports of potential Japanese intervention to support the currency. Precious metals rallied sharply, with gold up 1.48% and silver up 2.60%, buoyed by the weaker dollar and reduced Fed tightening expectations. The swaps market now discounts only a 20% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Rallies and Gold Sinks on Prospect of Tighter Fed Policy
The US dollar surged to a 13-month high on Wednesday, while gold and silver prices plunged to multi-month lows, driven by expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. The dollar continued its week-long rally following the FOMC's hawkish stance on June 17, which projected higher interest rates later this year. Gold fell 2.73% to a 7.5-month low, and silver dropped 4.76% to a 6.5-month low. The euro weakened to a fresh one-year low after ECB President Lagarde's dovish comments reduced rate hike expectations, despite stronger German IFO data. The yen remained near 23-month lows against the dollar, with intervention risks rising after Japan's finance minister discussed currency action with the US Treasury secretary. US economic data showed a larger-than-expected Q1 current account deficit and an unexpected decline in May new home sales. Markets are pricing a 32% chance of a Fed rate cut in July.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Jumps on Hawkish Fed as FOMC Signals Further Rate Hikes
The US dollar surged on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, following a hawkish Federal Reserve policy announcement. The dollar index rose 0.49%, supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data including May retail sales (+0.9% m/m vs +0.6% expected) and pending home sales (+3.8% m/m vs +0.9% expected). The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% but raised its end-2026 rate projection to 3.750%, implying at least one more 25 basis point hike this year. Nine of 18 FOMC participants penciled in at least one hike, with six anticipating two. The Fed cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.2% and raised core PCE inflation projection to 3.3%. EUR/USD fell 0.77% on dollar strength, while USD/JPY rose 0.09%. Gold and silver recovered from early losses, closing up 0.62% and 1.08% respectively. Markets now price a 34% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in July.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Gains on Better-Than-Expected US Economic News
The US dollar strengthened on Wednesday, supported by better-than-expected May retail sales (+0.9% m/m vs +0.6% expected) and pending home sales (+3.8% m/m vs +0.9% expected). The dollar index rose 0.12% as markets awaited the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but attention is on Warsh's press conference and inflation outlook. EUR/USD fell 0.14% as the euro weakened on lower German Bund yields, though losses were limited by an upward revision to Eurozone core CPI (2.6% y/y) and hawkish ECB comments. USD/JPY slipped 0.10% as the yen gained on strong Japanese core machine orders (+8.7% m/m) and a proposal to cut consumption tax on food. Gold and silver recovered from early losses, supported by the US-Iran peace accord and lower crude prices, though gains were capped by a stronger dollar and ETF liquidation.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Pressured by Deal to End the US-Iran War
The US dollar index fell to a one-week low on Monday, pressured by a peace deal between the US and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement curbed safe-haven demand for the dollar, while a 4% drop in crude oil prices lowered inflation expectations, potentially enabling easier monetary policy. The 10-year T-note yield also fell, further weakening dollar interest rate differentials. Weaker-than-expected US economic data, including the Empire manufacturing survey and May industrial production, added to dollar losses. The euro gained amid falling oil prices and hawkish ECB comments. The yen initially rose but later fell as safe-haven demand abated. Gold and silver jumped sharply, supported by a weaker dollar and lower bond yields. Markets are pricing rate hikes by the BOJ and potential moves by the ECB.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Falls After Trump Halts US Strikes on Iran, Peace Hopes Rise
The US dollar fell sharply against major currencies on June 11, 2026, after President Donald Trump called off renewed US military strikes on Iran at the last minute, citing progress in negotiations toward a potential deal. The dollar index dropped 0.41% to 99.64, a near one-week low, as investors moved away from safe-haven assets toward riskier investments. The euro rose 0.42% to $1.15820 after the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years to curb energy-induced inflation from the Iran war. Wall Street indexes gained, with the Nasdaq jumping 2.5%, while US Treasury yields fell and gold rose 3.35% to $4,209.81 an ounce. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its next meeting, while the Bank of Japan is also expected to hike rates. The yen strengthened 0.49% against the dollar to 159.73, near levels that could trigger intervention.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Falls as President Trump Cancels Attacks on Iran
The US dollar index fell 0.17% on Thursday, reversing early gains after President Trump announced the cancellation of planned strikes against Iran and signaled an imminent peace deal. The dollar initially rose on safe-haven demand amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, including US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation on US bases. However, the dollar weakened as crude oil prices slumped 2%, lowering inflation expectations and increasing the likelihood of Fed monetary loosening. Additional pressure came from US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rising to a 4-month high of 229,000. The euro rose 0.35% after the ECB raised rates by 25 bp to 2.25%, though gains were limited by lowered Eurozone GDP forecasts. The yen strengthened 0.41% against the dollar, supported by falling crude prices and expectations of a BOJ rate hike. Gold and silver prices continued their selloff, with gold hitting a 6.75-month low.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Recovers as Crude Surges and Stocks Slump
The US dollar index rose 0.06% on Wednesday, recovering from early losses as a surge in crude oil prices boosted inflation expectations, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. A stock market slump also increased liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar initially weakened after US May CPI data met expectations, easing inflation fears. Geopolitical tensions escalated as the US and Iran exchanged strikes overnight, with the US hitting Iranian air defenses near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliating with missiles and drones against US targets. This conflict added safe-haven demand for the dollar. The euro edged up ahead of an expected ECB rate hike, but gains were limited by crude's rally, which is negative for energy-importing Europe. The yen fell to a 5-week low against the dollar, pressured by higher crude prices and rising Treasury yields.
Yahoo FinanceDollar Weakens on As Expected US May CPI
The US dollar weakened on Wednesday after the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose exactly as expected, easing fears of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. The dollar index (DXY00) fell 0.13%. However, losses were limited by safe-haven demand amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, including overnight strikes and missile exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz and US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. A 1% jump in crude oil prices also supported the dollar by raising inflation expectations. EUR/USD rose 0.12% on dollar weakness and expectations of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike on Thursday. USD/JPY edged up 0.04% to a fresh 5-week low, pressured by higher crude oil prices and rising Treasury yields. Markets see a 0% chance of a Fed rate cut at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.
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