Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Surge to $120 if Middle East War Expands and Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed
Goldman Sachs has warned that crude oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel by the end of 2024 if the Middle East war expands and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period. The warning comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions, including Houthi threats of a naval blockade in the Red Sea targeting Saudi Arabia's oil exports from Yanbu. Goldman's commodity analysts noted that Persian Gulf oil flows have dropped below 45% of pre-war levels, pushing prices higher. This marks a reversal from earlier predictions of an oil glut, as normalization of Hormuz traffic has collapsed. Many vessels now navigate the strait in 'dark mode' with transponders off to avoid detection, and ship-tracking data shows the number of such vessels is dwindling rapidly.
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