US Gasoline Inventories Drop Amid Surging Exports and Strong Demand
US gasoline inventories are declining rapidly, currently sitting 5% below the historical seasonal median, driven by a combination of surging net exports and resilient domestic demand. According to Goldman Sachs, net exports have risen by 0.34 million barrels per day year-over-year, while domestic demand remains strong as the summer driving season approaches. Additionally, refineries are shifting production toward distillates like jet fuel and diesel due to higher margins, further tightening gasoline supplies. Consequently, US wholesale gasoline prices are approximately 15% higher than those in Asia and Europe, with retail prices nearing all-time highs. This tightness has increased the probability of potential US oil export restrictions, although this is not the base case. Globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates an April oil market deficit of 5.3 million barrels per day, slightly lower than previous estimates due to downgraded demand forecasts for LPG, naphtha, and jet fuel. Meanwhile, crude oil futures rose amid low flows through the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations.
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