An Emerging Middle Powers Alignment?

This German Marshall Fund compendium examines the growing debate over the role of Middle Powers in a multipolar world. US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby argued on July 14, 2026, that Middle Powers lack a coherent basis for alignment, dismissing collective Middle-Power strategy as flawed. The article features two contrasting analyses: Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı contends there is no unified 'Middle Powers Movement,' as these states are national-interest-driven and cooperate only on overlapping interests, not shared ideology. Dr. Carrie Lee counters that a Middle-Powers movement is emerging as a realist balancing strategy against US policy shifts, warning that Washington's retreat from leadership and bullying of allies is driving partners to seek alternatives that reduce US leverage. The piece builds on GMF's long-standing research, including the Global Swing States project and Pivotal Powers reports, highlighting countries like Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Türkiye as pivotal actors.