Question tracking
Get a current estimate, save it, and see how it changes with new information.
FinanceTracking
Anthropic's IPO timeline still points to November, but valuation expectations have been cut from ~$2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, and New York City's comptroller has publicly urged a delay, raising near-term uncertainty.
Latest development: Reuters exclusively reported investors tempering Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over slowing revenue growth
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 基民盟退席后，齐格蒙德能否获得42票存在不确定性，取决于其他政党（如社民党、绿党、左翼党等）的投票行为以及是否出现倒戈议员。
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 事件细节仍存争议，吉尔福伊尔否认指控，且白宫公开要求辞职的具体原因未完全披露。后续调整方向取决于调查结果和政治考量。
WorldTracking
Military clash occurs
23.5%
Observation: Ukraine reported SpaceX suddenly imposed a 160 km/h speed limit on Starlink-connected drones, disrupting missions including interception of Russian Shahed drones
WorldTracking
The international community should promote independent investigations via the UN and IMO, enhance Black Sea shipping safety cooperation, explicitly prohibit attacks on civilian vessels, and consider preventive deployments or escorts.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
The EU AI Act has taken effect in stages; open-source models must meet transparency duties unless shown to pose no systemic risk. Future impact depends on enforcement and guidance.
Latest development: New evidence shows transparency rules for general-purpose AI models took effect on Aug 2, 2026, with enforcement possible; open-source models are covered.
TechnologyTracking
If no buyer emerges, Character.AI will wind down; user data fate is undecided, with export available and 40 state AGs demanding protection.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round ended with no majority winner; Lula and Bolsonaro advanced to a runoff, which will shape Brazil's political landscape and policy direction.
Latest development: Provides clear information on the first-round results and the runoff matchup.
TechnologyTracking
Microsoft Decision-1, post-trained on Alibaba's Qwen3.5-9B, leads in 36 tests including our assessmentBench, indicating Chinese base models' competitiveness in decision tasks, though benchmark authority and independent verification remain unconfirmed.
WorldTracking
The Hamburg trial of Ukrainian officer Serhiy K. over Nord Stream sabotage may strain German-Ukrainian relations and push Europe to strengthen accountability for critical infrastructure, but the impact depends on the verdict.
Watching: 审判结果、乌克兰是否最终被认定参与、以及德国政府是否会因外交压力调整司法进程均存在不确定性。
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 爱沙尼亚各政党在2027年3月7日选举前的民调变化、联盟动态及选举规则调整。
Question trackingTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Question trackingTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Question trackingTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
WorldTracking
Iranian regime falls before 2027
5.5%
Observation: Multiple cargo and container ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards claiming a ship carrying 2,500 containers sank after hitting a mine
WorldTracking
US invades Iran before 2027
16.5%
Observation: Multiple cargo and container ships have sunk near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards claiming a ship carrying 2,500 containers sank after hitting a mine
WorldTracking
Joins Abraham Accords before 2027
5.5%
Observation: Houthi missile strikes hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters and sparked a fire, while Saudi Arabia intercepted a missile targeting Riyadh
WorldTracking
Democrats win
81%
Observation: Georgia Senator Ossoff said during a debate he has zero interest in a presidential run and is focused on his Senate re-election, which is unrelated to the Wisconsin governor race.
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 关注每日船舶通航量报告（如Kpler、Windward）及累计数量是否达到40艘。
FinanceTracking
Rate cut by December meeting
Rate cut by October meeting
Observation: CITIC Securities expects the Fed to hold rates in October and hike 25 bp in December, citing higher-than-expected September CPI and renewed monthly core inflation gains.
TechnologyTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 预测市场概率的更新、俄罗斯军事动向、官方声明或实际袭击事件。
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.