Question tracking
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Ukrainian drone strikes on Yandex data centers caused service disruptions and computing losses; long-term impact depends on further strikes and recovery capacity.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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Houthi attacks on Riyadh airport caused casualties, but reports do not show airline suspensions or rating cuts; shaken confidence and escalation lack confirmation.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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Glucksmann won the center-left primary with 66.13%, vowing to break with Mélenchon and stop Le Pen, but left-wing infighting may split votes, favoring the far right.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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The DOJ has opened an antitrust probe into five TV networks, but current evidence does not show self-censorship or harm to press freedom.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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The ICE shooting in NYC sparked intense federal-local conflict, but reports so far show no legal balance shift; future litigation or legislation is needed.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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After state election losses, CDU internal divisions over the AfD 'firewall' policy have intensified, but no evidence shows an official federal-level policy change.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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Ambassador Guilfoyle resigned amid allegations of soliciting $100,000 and promising government access; the State Department IG is investigating, but evidence does not show changes to ethics review standards or regulations.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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The US sanctioned ICC officials with asset freezes and visa bans over its investigation of Israeli leaders, potentially weakening the Court's investigative capacity and raising concerns about long-term damage to international justice.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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The Trump administration suspended Russian diesel sanctions to lower prices, drawing criticism from Germany, the EU, and Finland; reports do not establish a long-term shift in U.S. sanctions policy.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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The Pentagon plans to livestream Hasan's December 3 execution by firing squad, but legal basis is unclear; UCMJ lacks livestream provisions, drawing bipartisan criticism and potential legal delays.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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The EU plans a four-year import quota on Chinese hybrids starting at 350,000 units with 6% annual growth, aiming to reduce the trade deficit, but reports do not provide actual data on deficit or consumer costs.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 基民盟退席后，齐格蒙德能否获得42票存在不确定性，取决于其他政党（如社民党、绿党、左翼党等）的投票行为以及是否出现倒戈议员。
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 事件细节仍存争议，吉尔福伊尔否认指控，且白宫公开要求辞职的具体原因未完全披露。后续调整方向取决于调查结果和政治考量。
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Military clash occurs
23.5%
Observation: Ukraine reported SpaceX suddenly imposed a 160 km/h speed limit on Starlink-connected drones, disrupting missions including interception of Russian Shahed drones
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The international community should promote independent investigations via the UN and IMO, enhance Black Sea shipping safety cooperation, explicitly prohibit attacks on civilian vessels, and consider preventive deployments or escorts.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round ended with no majority winner; Lula and Bolsonaro advanced to a runoff, which will shape Brazil's political landscape and policy direction.
Latest development: Provides clear information on the first-round results and the runoff matchup.
WorldTracking
The Hamburg trial of Ukrainian officer Serhiy K. over Nord Stream sabotage may strain German-Ukrainian relations and push Europe to strengthen accountability for critical infrastructure, but the impact depends on the verdict.
Watching: 审判结果、乌克兰是否最终被认定参与、以及德国政府是否会因外交压力调整司法进程均存在不确定性。
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 爱沙尼亚各政党在2027年3月7日选举前的民调变化、联盟动态及选举规则调整。
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Iranian regime falls before 2027
5.5%
Observation: Multiple cargo and container ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards claiming a ship carrying 2,500 containers sank after hitting a mine
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US invades Iran before 2027
16.5%
Observation: Multiple cargo and container ships have sunk near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards claiming a ship carrying 2,500 containers sank after hitting a mine
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Joins Abraham Accords before 2027
5.5%
Observation: Houthi missile strikes hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters and sparked a fire, while Saudi Arabia intercepted a missile targeting Riyadh
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Democrats win
81%
Observation: Georgia Senator Ossoff said during a debate he has zero interest in a presidential run and is focused on his Senate re-election, which is unrelated to the Wisconsin governor race.
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 关注每日船舶通航量报告（如Kpler、Windward）及累计数量是否达到40艘。
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 预测市场概率的更新、俄罗斯军事动向、官方声明或实际袭击事件。