Russia, Ukraine clash over postwar security guarantees ahead of Abu Dhabi talks

Russia, Ukraine and the United States are preparing for November 10–11 talks in Abu Dhabi amid disputes over security guarantees, territory and attacks on energy supplies. Kyiv wants protection from renewed attacks; Moscow is pressing for mutual security guarantees.

Talks Announced as Attacks Disrupt Energy Supplies

The November 10–11 Abu Dhabi meeting comes as Russian attacks disrupt Ukrainian energy supplies and competing visions of postwar security complicate diplomatic efforts. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff announced the dates in a public social media post, with security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian measures on the agenda.

The security debate extends beyond ending the current fighting to determining whose security a future agreement would guarantee. Moscow wants guarantees for Russia as well as Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants discussions on ending the war and securing Ukraine's protection to precede any wider arrangement between Russia and Europe.

The terms of a settlement remain unresolved, and Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to represent Washington, according to a senior U.S. official.

Moscow Demands Reciprocal Guarantees

Russia has made its demand for reciprocal guarantees part of the stated agenda for Abu Dhabi. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on November 3 that any security guarantees would have to be reciprocal and that one country's security could not be ensured at another's expense. He also ruled out European participation in the negotiations, arguing that the agreed format was Russia and Ukraine with U.S. mediation.

The Russian insistence on mutual guarantees contrasts with Ukraine's concern that a broader agreement could expose it to new risks. In a November 6 interview, Zelenskyy warned that a security agreement between Russia and Europe could be dangerous and acknowledged that he did not know many details of the proposed framework. He said discussions on ending the war should come first, followed by guarantees for Ukraine and then a broader European-Russian arrangement.

Alliance Sovereignty in Focus

Washington's consideration of a wider European security framework has brought the question of alliance sovereignty into sharper focus. U.S. President Donald Trump described the possibility of an agreement involving more than Ukraine after meeting Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, while Kushner advocated greater military transparency and reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks.

Kushner also outlined a framework in which each country would retain control over its alliances and no country would have a veto over another's sovereign choices. Yet the principle of sovereign alliance choices faces a practical challenge: Moscow's opposition to a Western military presence in Ukraine.

In a February 2, 2026 statement, Russia's Foreign Ministry rejected the deployment of Western military units and infrastructure in Ukraine, characterizing it as foreign intervention threatening Russian security. This position highlights the difficulty of establishing security guarantees backed by a Western military presence, rather than diplomatic assurances alone.

Territorial Control Remains a Fundamental Obstacle

Beyond the question of military protection, territorial control remains another fundamental obstacle to a settlement. According to the cited reporting, Russian President Vladimir Putin's demands include control of the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, a reduction in the size of Ukraine's military and an end to Ukraine's ambition to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Kyiv views those demands as evidence that Putin is not serious about negotiating a peace agreement.

Kyiv Pursues Immediate Measures to Protect Civilians

While territorial and military disputes remain unresolved, Kyiv is also pursuing immediate measures to limit the war's impact on civilians. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha outlined Kyiv's priorities in Warsaw on November 6, including an energy truce and de-escalation in the Black Sea. He also called for security guarantees, the return of Ukrainian children and further prisoner exchanges.

The urgency of an energy truce has increased as attacks threaten essential services ahead of winter. Following the November 7 attacks, Ukrainian national and city authorities reported damage to homes and businesses in Kyiv, alongside new power and water outages. Ukraine's Energy Ministry reported damage to networks carrying electricity from nuclear power plants toward Kyiv and central regions, as well as other power facilities.

While Ukrainian authorities reported damage to civilian infrastructure, Moscow presented the strikes as operations against military supply routes and production facilities. Russia's Defense Ministry acknowledged targeting Kyiv's Northern Bridge, describing it as a route for weapons and military equipment. It also listed a missile-production facility, a power station and electrical substations among its targets. Zelenskyy accused Moscow of intensifying attacks to pressure Ukraine before the Abu Dhabi talks.

Kyiv Seeks European Support and a Direct Role

Against this backdrop of continuing attacks, Kyiv is seeking to combine diplomatic negotiations with additional support from its European partners. In his November 6 account of the meeting with European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Sybiha described an agreement to strengthen support for Ukrainian defense and resilience ahead of winter. He called for additional sanctions and travel bans, alongside accountability for Russian crimes, as measures to advance the peace process.

Kyiv is also insisting that European governments have a direct role in decisions affecting the continent's security. Sybiha emphasized that there could be no decisions on Ukrainian and European security without Ukraine and Europe.

NATO spokesperson Allison Hart separately confirmed that U.S., Ukrainian and European representatives held consultations in Brussels before the trilateral meeting. European participation in preparatory consultations, however, does not necessarily translate into a formal role in the negotiations themselves. Peskov maintained that Russia would eventually need a conversation with Europeans about a future security system, even as he excluded them from the Abu Dhabi format.

Kyiv is seeking European participation in security decisions while Moscow is preserving a negotiating format that excludes direct European representation.

Previous Rounds Yield Limited Humanitarian Progress

Despite disagreements over participation, the Abu Dhabi format has previously delivered limited humanitarian progress. On February 5, the United Arab Emirates' Foreign Ministry announced an exchange involving 314 captives during the second round of trilateral talks. The ministry put the number returned by each side at 157. Zelenskyy confirmed that day that 157 Ukrainians had returned home from Russian captivity and that his negotiating team had completed two days of meetings in the Emirates.

However, the humanitarian progress in Abu Dhabi did not translate into comparable advances on the broader political questions during subsequent negotiations in Geneva. After the February 17–18 talks, Zelenskyy reported progress on ceasefire monitoring, with U.S. participation, but less progress on political questions. Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky described those discussions as difficult but businesslike and anticipated further meetings.

The distinction between military coordination and political agreement remains central as both sides prepare for another round of negotiations.

Russian Delegation Confirmed

Putin discussed preparations at a November 6 Security Council meeting and thanked the United Arab Emirates for hosting the coming negotiations. Peskov's account names presidential aide Medinsky, Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov and senior General Staff officer Yury Zhigarlovsky among Russia's representatives.

As those officials prepare to return, previous rounds of negotiations offer a precedent for limited humanitarian progress alongside unresolved political disputes. The competing positions leave open whether the governments can agree on credible protection for Ukraine while accommodating Moscow's broader security concerns.

The central test in Abu Dhabi will be whether negotiators can secure concrete commitments on energy security and humanitarian exchanges while making progress toward a broader framework that addresses Ukraine's security concerns and Russia's demand for mutual guarantees.

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