ASEAN foreign ministers call for immediate halt to US-Iran hostilities

Manila, Philippines — The renewed fighting between Iran and the United States will have "immediate and long-term effects" on Southeast Asia and its people, according to foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

In a joint statement released Tuesday after the close of the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila, ministers from the 11-nation bloc expressed "serious concern" over the hostilities and called for the resumption of free movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Concerns

The ministers stated they were:

• "Deeply concerned that these developments severely undermine the ongoing efforts of key mediators and diminish the prospects for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy"
• Calling on "all parties concerned to exercise utmost self-restraint and avoid any acts that may further aggravate the situation"
• Demanding "a complete and immediate cessation of hostilities across all fronts in the Middle East"

Background of the Conflict

The ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., initially agreed in April and formalized in June, collapsed earlier this month after both sides accused each other of reneging on their agreements.

The U.S. has since resumed air attacks on Iran, which have been met by increased Iranian attacks on shipping and targets across the region. One such attack killed three U.S. military personnel in Jordan. According to Al Jazeera, the conflict has in recent days "expanded beyond military targets, with strikes increasingly hitting civilian infrastructure while both sides continue to harden their public positions."

Impact on Southeast Asia

Southeast Asian nations were hit hard by the initial phase of the war, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28 and prompted Iran to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This led to an immediate spike in oil and gas prices from the Middle East, which supplies approximately 60 percent of Asia's crude oil imports.

While each nation's vulnerability to Middle Eastern oil imports varies considerably, ASEAN's foreign ministers welcomed the initial cessation of hostilities in April, calling for both Iran and the U.S. to "continue negotiations that will lead to the permanent end of the conflict and lasting peace and stability in the region."

The return to fighting, which came after a short resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, will have negative impacts:

• On regional trade, energy, and food security
• On energy markets and supply chains
• On agricultural production
• On the stability of agricultural input supply chains, particularly fertilizers

Maritime Security

The ministers stressed the importance of maintaining "maritime safety and security, and upholding freedom of navigation in and overflight." They called for the restoration of "safe, unimpeded, and continuous transit passage of vessels and aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz."

US Diplomatic Engagement

The resumption of the U.S.-Iran war has overshadowed this week's ASEAN-related meetings in Manila. During his meeting with ASEAN and other regional leaders, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's demand to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz would threaten the world's economy and set a dangerous precedent.

"If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation-state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll and if you don't pay them, blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent which will repeat itself in other parts of the world, including in this region," Rubio said.

ASEAN's Diplomatic Position

It remains unclear how receptive the audience was to Rubio's warning. While the bloc's initial statement on the war on March 4 explicitly noted that it resulted from "attacks initiated by Israel and the United States," this week's statement made no such mention, nor did it single out Iran for blame.

The statement reflects ASEAN's characteristic diplomatic caution. However, the resumption of the war, following the initial U.S.-Israeli attacks, will likely continue to undermine perceptions of U.S. reliability in Southeast Asia.

In comments to Politico, four Washington-based Asian diplomats—including three representing ASEAN nations—said their governments were "aghast at what they see as Washington's failure to anticipate the conflict's regional economic knock-on effects."

"The Iran war just confirmed many Southeast Asian leaders' broader worries about U.S. global leadership," one ASEAN diplomat told the publication.