OPEC+ Set to Raise Output Targets Despite Inability to Meet Current Quotas
OPEC+ is expected to approve another 188,000 barrels per day production target increase for September when eight key producers meet on August 2, continuing a months-long campaign to unwind voluntary supply cuts. However, actual production has been declining due to disruptions: the Iran war affected Gulf exports, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping threaten Saudi Arabia's alternative export route, Iraq faces export bottlenecks, Kazakhstan cut production after drone attacks on a Black Sea terminal, and Russia deals with refinery disruptions from Ukrainian drone strikes. Brent crude topped $100/barrel amid these concerns. The increase would complete the rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut adopted in 2023, with seven producers restoring roughly 1.15 million bpd of quotas since April. Higher quotas signal OPEC+ intends to replace lost barrels when export routes allow.
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