Iran War Drives Major Realignment in South Caucasus Geopolitics

The ongoing conflict involving Iran is significantly accelerating and complicating geopolitical trends in the South Caucasus that have been developing since 2020. Following Azerbaijan's military breakthrough and subsequent complete takeover of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023, Armenia has actively sought to reorient its international partnerships toward Western powers. Concurrently, Russia, historically Armenia's primary security patron and economic partner, has seen its influence in the region diminish further. With Iran currently constrained by its war with the United States and Israel, a power vacuum has emerged, allowing actors such as the U.S., Turkey, and the European Union to increase their engagement. Notably, President Donald Trump has attempted to broker a definitive peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This effort centers on the "TRIPP" initiative, which promotes a 25-mile multimodal corridor through southern Armenia. This corridor aims to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, serving as a primary economic engine for the region and symbolizing a broader shift in international alliances and strategic interests.