Iran Expands Oil Chokepoint Threat as Houthis Eye Red Sea Shipping

Iran has instructed Yemen's Houthi forces to prepare to disrupt Red Sea oil shipping routes if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure, according to the report. Missiles and drones have been deployed near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with Houthi forces awaiting an order from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to begin attacks. This represents a strategic pincer movement by Tehran, combining leverage at the Strait of Hormuz with a new threat at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The report notes that on July 13, Yemeni government forces struck Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing, prompting Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks on Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia, breaking a 2022 truce. On July 16, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi warned that Saudi oil facilities and ports would become targets if Riyadh did not cease hostilities. The analysis highlights that Saudi Arabia now relies on the Red Sea route for 70% of its energy exports, making Bab el-Mandeb a critical vulnerability. The report draws parallels to the 2019 Abqaiq attack, which temporarily removed 5.7 million barrels per day from global supply.