U.S. Inflation Drops to 3.5% in June Amid Iran Ceasefire Collapse
In June 2026, U.S. annual inflation fell to 3.5% (from 4.2% in May), driven by a 9.7% drop in gasoline prices during a brief U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Core inflation slid to 2.6%. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress, pledging to achieve the 2% target but warning the fight is not over. The ceasefire has since disintegrated, pushing oil prices back up, and economists warn inflation relief may be short-lived. Markets now see lower odds of a July rate hike.
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US Inflation Sees Largest Monthly Decline in Over Six Years; CNBC Anchor Stunned
The June 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% month-over-month decline, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, surprising economists and CNBC anchor Rick Santelli. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) came in at 0.0%. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett credited President Trump's policies for the decline, noting that 67 surveyed economists had underestimated the drop. The energy index fell 5.7%, driving the headline decline. Despite the positive monthly data, consumer prices remain 3.5% higher than a year ago and over 28% higher since 2020, with food and shelter costs up over 30%. The article also warns that renewed geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war, could reverse the trend, and discusses gold as a hedge against long-term inflation.
US Inflation Sees Largest Monthly Drop in Over Six Years; Core CPI Flat
The June 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% month-over-month decline, the largest single-month drop in over six years, driven by a 5.7% plunge in energy prices. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in at 0.0% month-over-month, surprising CNBC anchor Rick Santelli. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett touted the report as evidence that President Trump's policies are working, noting that 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had underestimated the decline. Despite the positive monthly data, consumer prices remain 3.5% higher than a year ago, and cumulative inflation since 2020 exceeds 28%, with food and shelter costs up over 30%. The article also warns that renewed geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war and rising oil prices, could reverse the trend. It concludes by promoting gold and other inflation-resistant assets as investment strategies.
Fed's Warsh Promises Congress a Hard Line on Inflation Amid Looming Risks
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first congressional testimony, vowed a hard line on inflation, stating the Fed has 'no tolerance' for high prices. The June Consumer Price Index showed a 3.5% annual increase, down from 4.2% in May and below expectations, reducing immediate pressure for a rate hike. CME FedWatch data placed the probability of a July rate hike at just 16.6%. However, analysts caution that the relief may be temporary due to escalating US-Iran tensions driving oil prices higher. Warsh's hawkish stance and a divided Federal Open Market Committee suggest future policy remains uncertain, with risks of renewed inflation later in the year.
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Inflation slows to 3.5% as Warsh pledges to achieve Fed’s 2% target
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. consumer prices rose at a lower-than-forecast annual rate of 3.5% in June, down from 4.2% in May, driven largely by a 5.7% decline in energy prices including a 9.5% drop in gasoline. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was unchanged month-over-month and stood at 2.6% annually. Shortly after the data release, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Financial Services Committee, pledging to achieve the central bank's 2% inflation target. Warsh cautioned against declaring 'mission accomplished' and noted the fight against above-target inflation is just beginning. The better-than-expected CPI data reduced market expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's July 28-29 meeting to 16.6% odds, down from 41.7% the previous day. However, inflation may accelerate in July following the collapse of a ceasefire with Iran and a 17% rebound in oil prices to $85 per barrel. Warsh described the labor market as 'broadly stable' with solid wage growth.
Inflation Falls at Fastest Rate in Years as Gas Prices Ease in June
In June 2026, U.S. inflation cooled faster than expected, with consumer prices rising 3.5% year-over-year and dropping 0.5% month-over-month, the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Gas prices fell 9.7% from May, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 2.6%, below estimates. A brief peace deal between Iran and the U.S. lowered oil prices, though President Trump later declared the deal 'over.' Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated the central bank will 'get monetary policy right' and that the inflation surge of the last five years will be 'a thing of the past.' Despite the cooling, futures traders priced in a 61.3% chance of an interest rate hike next month, with odds rising to 89.2% by April 2027. The Fed has kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% due to elevated inflation earlier this year.
Inflation Cools to 3.5% in June; Fed Chair Warsh Tells Congress Work Not Done
The U.S. annual inflation rate fell to 3.5% in June 2026, down from 4.2% in May, driven by a short-lived ceasefire in the Iran war that lowered gas prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, dropped to 2.6%. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Financial Services Committee, stating the Fed's work to achieve price stability is not complete. He expressed optimism about AI's job-creating potential but cautioned that inflation remains above the 2% target. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in July are already pushing oil prices back up, complicating the outlook. Economists are split on whether the Fed will raise or hold interest rates at its July 29 meeting, though the CPI report has increased confidence in a hold.
Inflation cooled off in June as energy prices slid
The Consumer Price Index released on July 14, 2026 showed inflation declined 0.4% on a monthly basis in June, the largest single-month drop since April 2020. Annual inflation eased to 3.5%, below the 3.8% expected by economists. The decline was driven by a 5.7% drop in energy prices and a 9.7% fall in gasoline prices, attributed to a now-disintegrating ceasefire in the war with Iran. Food prices ticked up 0.2%. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, slid to 2.6% annually and was flat for the month. Economists warn the renewed war in Iran will likely push inflation back up, making the relief potentially short-lived. The report comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's testimony on Capitol Hill, with inflation a key focus. The data coincided with strong earnings reports from major banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America, pointing to a resilient economy.
Inflation cooled off in June as energy prices slid
The Consumer Price Index released on July 14, 2026, showed inflation declined 0.4% on a monthly basis in June, the largest single-month drop since April 2020. Annual inflation eased to 3.5%, below the 3.8% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The decline was driven by a 5.7% drop in energy prices and a 9.7% fall in gasoline prices, attributed to a now-disintegrating ceasefire in the war with Iran. Food prices ticked up 0.2%. Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food categories, slid to 2.6% annually and was flat for the month. Economists warn the renewed war in Iran will likely push inflation back up, making relief potentially short-lived. The report comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's testimony on Capitol Hill, with inflation a key focus. The data coincided with strong earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America, indicating a resilient economy.