Goldman Sachs Warns of Renewed Oil Price Upside Risk Amid Gulf Disruptions
Goldman Sachs has issued a fresh warning to the oil market, flagging renewed upside risk to prices as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt Gulf oil flows. After a brief period of calm following a US-Iran deal that reopened the Persian Gulf and allowed flows to recover to over 80% of pre-war levels, renewed attacks have pulled flows back below 50% (roughly 11 million barrels per day). The US has reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Goldman estimates the market is now short 13.4 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf flows, which could force demand destruction or inventory draws unless tensions ease. The bank's stance shifted from expecting normalization by month's end to acknowledging the deteriorating situation, with Saudi Arabia and UAE unable to fully compensate for the losses.
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