Don’t fall for the middle-power mirage

This Atlantic Council analysis critiques Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent Davos speech, which called for middle powers to unite and create a new multilateral system amid a rupturing world order. The author argues that while the global disruption is real, Carney’s vision of middle-power multilateralism is an unachievable aspiration. Middle powers are currently caught between unreliable hegemons, specifically the United States and China, in a system that no longer prioritizes the values-based foreign policy they espouse. The article highlights how the US, under President Donald Trump’s second term, has shifted from a permissive hegemon to an aggressive actor. Trump has threatened NATO withdrawal, imposed tariffs on allies, mused about annexing Canada and Greenland, slashed foreign aid, and withdrawn from numerous international organizations. These actions have shattered the rules-based order that previously allowed middle powers to leverage international institutions for influence. Consequently, the credibility of bodies like the UN is weakened, and middle powers cannot reconstruct the conditions necessary for viable values-based multilateralism, forcing them to continue partnering with unpredictable superpowers despite their reservations.