China's Next Move Could Decide Where Oil Prices Go This Year

China's crude oil import strategy is a key factor shaping global oil prices through the end of the year, alongside Middle East supply disruptions. After slashing imports to a decade-low 7.12 million barrels per day in June—a 41.3% year-over-year drop—China helped cap price spikes during the Iran war by removing about 4 million bpd of demand. Beijing has been drawing down its estimated 1.2-1.4 billion barrel stockpile, pulling 41 million barrels from reserves in June alone. Goldman Sachs predicts China could resume buying as soon as this month after oil prices dipped to $70 in late June, but with prices now near $90, refiners may reduce purchases for cargoes arriving after September. China's opportunistic buying strategy—ramping up imports when prices fall to $60-70 and cutting when above $80—makes it the swing demand buyer on the global market. The market is closely watching Beijing's next moves on crude imports and refined product exports.