SpaceX Faces $100B Lockup Expiration as Index Inclusions Provide Cushion

Published Aug 5, 07:35 PM UTC

Nearly one billion SpaceX shares held by early employees and pre-IPO investors will unlock on Thursday, representing a supply shock of roughly $100 billion. Analysts at D.A. Davidson and Morgan Stanley note that SpaceX mitigated the impact by securing accelerated inclusion into four major indexes (CRSP, FTSE Russell, MSCI, Nasdaq) within 25 days of listing, forcing passive funds in millions of 401(k)s to buy shares. This created substantial demand ahead of the lockup expiration. Hedge fund Millennium reportedly made $3.6 billion in June from index-rebalancing trades. Despite a 9% drop on Wednesday and a 50% decline since the IPO, Wall Street remains bullish, with JPMorgan raising its price target to $240. CEO Elon Musk projected a $100 billion revenue run rate by year-end, though heavy AI spending ($15 billion in one quarter) and slowing Starlink growth raise concerns.