SpaceX Faces $100 Billion Lockup Expiration as Stock Surges Despite Earnings Concerns
On August 6, 2026, SpaceX experienced its largest share lockup expiration, releasing 911.5 million shares worth ~$100 billion for trading, more than doubling the public float. Despite fears of a price crash, the stock surged 21% the following week, driven by strong Q2 earnings (revenue up 92% YoY, AI revenue up 247%) and bullish analyst notes. The company mitigated the supply shock by securing accelerated inclusion in major indexes, forcing passive funds to buy shares. However, concerns remain over heavy AI spending ($15.8 billion in Q2) and slowing Starlink growth.
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SpaceX Shares Surge 21% After Lockup Expiration, Defying Crash Fears
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares rose 21% to $138.74 in the week following a 911.5 million-share lockup expiration on August 6, 2026, defying widespread bearish predictions. The rally was fueled by a bullish Semi Analysis research note arguing Elon Musk's gigawatt compute plans could generate $300 billion in annual recurring revenue by end of 2027. SpaceX's Q2 earnings showed revenue up 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, AI segment revenue surging 247%, and Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 191% to $3.54 billion, beating consensus EPS estimates. The stock had fallen from its June IPO peak of $225, but the lockup event failed to trigger the anticipated sell-off, with retail sentiment on Reddit flipping from bearish to confused admiration.
SpaceX Stock Surges 21% After Lockup Expiration, Defying Crash Fears
Despite widespread fears that a 911.5 million-share lockup expiration on August 6, 2026 would crash SpaceX (SPCX) stock, shares surged 21% to $138.74 the following week. The rally was fueled by strong Q2 earnings—revenue up 92% YoY to $7.81B, AI segment revenue up 247%, and Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million—and a bullish research note from Semi Analysis. The firm argued SpaceX could build 10GW of compute by end 2027, implying a path to $300B in annual recurring revenue. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 191% to $3.54B, beating EPS consensus. The stock now carries a $1.76 trillion market cap, though some analysts like Morningstar's Nicolas Owens still consider it significantly overvalued with a $62 fair value estimate.
Morgan Stanley Issues Bullish SpaceX Call Amid $101 Billion Lockup Expiration
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas published a bullish note on SpaceX stock on August 6, 2026, the same day a lockup expiration made up to 911.5 million shares eligible for sale, worth about $101 billion. Despite fears of a selloff, SpaceX shares rose nearly 3% on the unlock date after falling 13.6% the prior day. Jonas rated SpaceX Overweight with a $300 mid-2027 price target, calling it a 'potential generational compounder' in AI, launch services, and satellite connectivity. Over half of his target is attributed to SpaceX's AI business. The note came from Morgan Stanley, which helped take SpaceX public in June. Additional unlock windows remain later in August and through end of 2026, with Elon Musk's shares restricted until June 2027.
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SpaceX Stock Surges Despite Earnings Concerns and Major Lock-Up Expiration
SpaceX (SPCX) closed a pivotal week with a 23% gain, including a record 15.8% single-day jump on Friday, despite facing two major stress tests: its first earnings report as a public company and the largest share lock-up expiration in its history. The Q2 earnings beat estimates on revenue and adjusted EBITDA, but investor concerns over AI capital expenditures rising to $15.8 billion from $7.7 billion in Q1 caused a 13.6% drop on Wednesday. On Thursday, 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade, more than doubling the public float to 11.8% of shares outstanding. Contrary to expectations of a price decline, the stock rose 6.1% that day. Analysts attributed the resilience to market anticipation of the dilution and prepositioning. The lock-up is staggered across nine tranches over several months, with Thursday's being the first and largest. SpaceX must continue delivering strong results to maintain its valuation as remaining shares enter the market.
SpaceX stock rises as first lockup expiry doubles tradable shares
SpaceX shares climbed 1.4% to $109.86 on August 6, 2026, as the first of several lockup restrictions expired, more than doubling the number of shares available for public trading to over 1.55 billion. Trading volume exceeded $23 billion, making it the busiest session since the company's Nasdaq 100 inclusion on July 7. The lockup expiry allows rank-and-file employees and some early investors to sell 911.5 million shares. Despite the rise, SpaceX stock has lost over a quarter of its value since its June 12 IPO, trading below the $135 IPO price for three weeks. The decline follows a steep selloff driven by concerns over operating losses and massive AI infrastructure spending disclosed in the company's first quarterly report. Analysts warn that increased share availability could keep volatility elevated, though some long-term investors remain bullish on SpaceX's disruptive potential.
SpaceX faces $100 billion share lockup expiration; Wall Street remains bullish
Nearly a billion SpaceX shares, worth about $100 billion, will be unlocked on Thursday as lockup restrictions expire for early employees and pre-IPO investors. This represents a massive supply shock, larger than the IPO itself. However, Wall Street analysts are not overly concerned, citing the 'never bet against Elon' truism. SpaceX mitigated the risk by securing accelerated inclusion in major stock indexes (CRSP, FTSE Russell, MSCI, Nasdaq) within 25 days of listing, which forced passive funds to buy shares. JPMorgan estimates Nasdaq inclusion alone transferred $4 billion into passive accounts. The stock has fallen 50% since its IPO and dropped another 9% on Wednesday after a rocket crash and earnings that revealed heavy AI spending ($15 billion in a single quarter) and doubts about Starlink's growth. Despite this, JPMorgan raised its price target from $220 to $240.
SpaceX Faces $100 Billion Lockup Expiration as Index Inclusions Provide Cushion
Nearly one billion SpaceX shares held by early employees and pre-IPO investors will unlock on Thursday, representing a supply shock of roughly $100 billion. Analysts at D.A. Davidson and Morgan Stanley note that SpaceX mitigated the impact by securing accelerated inclusion into four major indexes (CRSP, FTSE Russell, MSCI, Nasdaq) within 25 days of listing, forcing passive funds in millions of 401(k)s to buy shares. This created substantial demand ahead of the lockup expiration. Hedge fund Millennium reportedly made $3.6 billion in June from index-rebalancing trades. Despite a 9% drop on Wednesday and a 50% decline since the IPO, Wall Street remains bullish, with JPMorgan raising its price target to $240. CEO Elon Musk projected a $100 billion revenue run rate by year-end, though heavy AI spending ($15 billion in one quarter) and slowing Starlink growth raise concerns.