ASEAN foreign ministers call for immediate cessation of Middle East hostilities

The foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have warned that the renewed fighting between Iran and the United States will have "immediate and long-term effects" on Southeast Asia and its people.

In a joint statement issued following the conclusion of the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on Tuesday, ministers from the 11-nation bloc expressed "serious concern" over the resumption of hostilities and called for the restoration of free movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Deep Concern Over Undermined Peace Efforts

The ministers stated they were "deeply concerned that these developments severely undermine the ongoing efforts of key mediators and diminish the prospects for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy."

"We called on all parties concerned to exercise utmost self-restraint and avoid any acts that may further aggravate the situation," the statement read, while urging "a complete and immediate cessation of hostilities across all fronts in the Middle East."

Collapse of Ceasefire

The ceasefire between Iran and the United States—initially agreed in April and formalized in June—collapsed earlier this month after both sides accused each other of reneging on their agreements.

The U.S. has since resumed air attacks on Iran, which have been met with increased Iranian attacks on shipping and regional targets. One such attack killed three U.S. military personnel in Jordan. According to Al Jazeera, the conflict has in recent days "expanded beyond military targets, with strikes increasingly hitting civilian infrastructure while both sides continue to harden their public positions."

Impact on Southeast Asia

Southeast Asian nations were severely affected by the initial phase of the war, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28 and prompted Iran to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This caused an immediate spike in oil and gas prices from the Middle East, which supplies approximately 60 percent of Asia's crude oil imports.

While each nation's vulnerability to Middle Eastern oil imports varies considerably, ASEAN's foreign ministers had welcomed the initial cessation of hostilities in April, calling on both parties to "continue negotiations that will lead to the permanent end of the conflict and lasting peace and stability in the region."

Economic and Security Concerns

Echoing earlier ASEAN statements, the ministers noted that the return to fighting—following a brief resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—would have "immediate and long-term effects" on the region's people. They warned of negative impacts:

• On regional trade, energy, and food security
• On energy markets and supply chains
• On agricultural production
• On the stability of agricultural input supply chains, particularly fertilizers

The ministers stressed the importance of maintaining "maritime safety and security, and upholding freedom of navigation in and overflight," and called for the restoration of "safe, unimpeded, and continuous transit passage of vessels and aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz."

US Warning on Strait of Hormuz

The resumption of the US-Iran war has overshadowed this week's ASEAN-related meetings in Manila.

During his meeting with ASEAN and other regional leaders, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's demand to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz would threaten the global economy and set a dangerous precedent.

"If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation-state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll and if you don't pay them, blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent which will repeat itself in other parts of the world, including in this region," he said.

Shifting ASEAN Position

This view is likely to find some support within ASEAN. While the bloc's initial statement on the war on March 4 explicitly noted that it had resulted from "attacks initiated by Israel and the United States," this week's statement made no such mention. This may indicate that the bloc now attributes equal responsibility to Iran for the breakdown of the ceasefire and opposes its determination to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, regional governments are unlikely to forget that Iran would not have taken such a step without the U.S.-Israeli attack in late February.

Prospects for Peace

An immediate end to the fighting appears unlikely. Rubio stated that Iran "has been reaching out to the United States, both directly and indirectly, to engage in talks about settling the differences." While "the U.S. would love to reach a diplomatic settlement," the Trump administration is "not going to sit by and let ships be blown up or Americans be attacked," he said.