Japan and Brazil hold first strategic dialogue, agree to launch EPA talks

Overview

The Japan-Brazil Foreign Ministers' Strategic Dialogue took place in Tokyo on May 18, bringing together Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and his Brazilian counterpart, Mauro Vieira. The meeting reflects both nations' commitment to strengthening bilateral ties under the "Strategic and Global Partnership Action Plan Japan-Brazil (2025-2030)," based on a shared recognition that the relationship holds substantial untapped potential.

Brazil's Importance to Japan

Brazil, with a population exceeding 200 million and approximately 2 million people of Japanese descent, has long been a key Latin American partner for Japan. This is evidenced by repeated visits from Japanese leaders and members of the Imperial Family. However, the economic and political dimensions of the relationship have yet to reach their full potential.

Trade Imbalances and Opportunities

Trade between the two countries remains narrowly concentrated:

• Brazilian exports to Japan: Iron ore, chicken, and coffee
• Japanese exports to Brazil: Automotive parts and machinery

Japan's share of Brazil's total foreign trade has been declining and currently stands at just 2 percent. The Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), which continues dialogue with Brazilian industry, has advocated for an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Mercosur for over a decade, viewing Brazil as a crucial partner for regional integration.

A Shifting Global Landscape

As the United States—once the champion of global free trade—turns toward protectionism, Brazil is moving in the opposite direction. In January, Brazil signed a free trade agreement with the European Union after years of negotiations. This divergence presents a strategic opportunity:

• Brazil seeks to diversify its trading partners
• Japan aims to increase trade volume, broaden the range of goods traded, and secure agricultural products and rare earths for economic security

During the recent Strategic Dialogue, progress was made on entering EPA negotiations. For Japan, securing Brazil's agreement on economic security cooperation was a significant achievement.

China's Growing Influence

Among Asian powers, China has already established close ties with Brazil. China's rapid economic growth has driven substantial imports of Brazilian food, feed crops, and mineral resources, alongside growing exports of Chinese goods. China has become Brazil's largest trading partner by a wide margin, surpassing the United States. Chinese investment in clean energy has also increased in recent years.

The limited impact of the Trump administration's 50 percent tariff on Brazil—introduced last summer as leverage—illustrates how U.S. influence has waned as China-Brazil economic ties have deepened. Politically and diplomatically, China and Brazil stand together as leading voices of the Global South, opposing a U.S.-dominated world order.

Brazil's Multipolar Approach

Brazil, however, is pursuing a multipolar international order and is not seeking to distance itself from Japan or treat it as an adversary, even as it deepens ties with China. Brazil's foreign policy emphasizes autonomy and avoids excessive reliance on any single country, including China.

Notably, while Latin American nations were invited to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017, Brazil has declined to participate, even as others in the region have signed on. If anything, the more Brazil depends on China, the more it seeks to diversify its economic relationships with other major partners, including Japan.

Shared Values and Diplomatic Goals

Japan and Brazil share common diplomatic objectives, including:

• Advocacy for United Nations Security Council reform
• Commitment to democracy, human rights, and the non-use of force—values China does not share

Brazil's Global Positioning

Brazil has long considered itself part of the West and is working toward OECD membership, positioning itself as a bridge between the Global North and South. In Asia, Brazil has been developing its strategic partnership with India—another major Global South power—into meaningful economic and technological collaboration.

While Brazil is unlikely to join the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) initiative, given its focus on containing China, it should nonetheless be able to embrace the underlying principles of freedom and the rule of law. Drawing Brazil closer to the Asia-Pacific and cultivating a productive strategic relationship would serve Japan's national interests and contribute to a peaceful, stable regional order.

The Path Forward

The recent Strategic Dialogue marks a meaningful step in the right direction. However, realizing the relationship's latent potential will require building social mechanisms that translate shared values and existing pro-Japanese sentiment into durable engagement. This means:

• Sustained investment, over the medium to long term, in people who understand both countries
• Continued effort from government and business organizations alike
• Practical support for companies navigating the relationship

Initiatives such as exhibitions where young Brazilians can encounter Japanese manufacturing and craftsmanship will also play a role in deepening bilateral ties.