Taiwan’s Hormuz Option: Lessons from Middle East and Ukraine Conflicts

This analysis by Can Kasapoğlu explores how Taiwan can prepare for potential conflict with China by studying asymmetric warfare strategies employed by Iran and Ukraine. Despite differing geopolitical contexts, all three nations face the challenge of deterring materially superior adversaries. The article highlights Iran’s use of the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic lever to raise costs and delay regime change, and Ukraine’s success in leveraging drone technology and indigenous defense industries to counter Russian forces. Taiwan is advised to adopt elements of these approaches, particularly in building a robust drone ecosystem and asymmetric capabilities, though its current production targets remain modest compared to Ukraine’s wartime output. The text outlines potential Chinese aggression scenarios, including hybrid warfare, blockades, and invasion, emphasizing the need for Taipei to integrate combat-driven innovation and political-military paradigms to deny Beijing a quick victory. The core argument suggests that while Taiwan cannot duplicate these models exactly, it must internalize their strategic lessons to enhance deterrence against the People’s Liberation Army.