SpaceX Loses IPO Premium as Lock-Up Expiration Looms
SpaceX (SPCX) has fallen below its $135 IPO price to around $123, a 45% drop from its all-time high of $225.64, as initial IPO enthusiasm fades. The stock trades at about 45x estimated 2026 sales, far above most large tech companies, implying expectations of flawless execution. A key near-term risk is the upcoming lock-up expiration: only 5% of shares were initially floated, but up to 40% could become tradable by December, removing the scarcity premium that supported the price. Despite strong fundamentals—Starlink accounts for 60% of revenue, $22 billion in government contracts, and dominance in reusable rockets—the valuation assumes massive future growth in AI infrastructure, satellite broadband, and defense. The bear case warns that the stock is priced for near-perfect execution, while the bull case sees SpaceX as a platform dominating multi-trillion-dollar industries.
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