SpaceX Loses IPO Premium as Lock-Up Expiration Looms
SpaceX (SPCX) has fallen below its $135 IPO price to around $123, shedding 45% from its all-time high of $225.64 as initial IPO enthusiasm fades. The stock trades at about 45x estimated 2026 sales, far above most large tech companies, implying expectations of revenue approaching $178 billion by 2035. A major near-term risk is the upcoming lock-up expiration, with up to 40% of outstanding shares becoming eligible for trading by December, potentially increasing supply and pressuring the stock. The company's small public float of about 5% had supported the post-IPO price. SpaceX's bull case rests on Starlink (60% of revenue), government contracts worth $22 billion, and potential dominance in multi-trillion-dollar industries. The bear case highlights that the premium valuation assumes near-perfect execution amid investor skepticism about AI and infrastructure spending returns.
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