Shortsighted stock market can no longer brush off war: 'It's too hard to ignore $100 oil'

U.S. equities tumbled on Thursday as Brent crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, driven by escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities including a 12th consecutive night of U.S. strikes and attacks on tankers off Saudi Arabia. The S&P 500 headed for its largest monthly decline as the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.7%, its highest since January 2025. Investors had previously brushed off the conflict, betting on President Trump finding an off-ramp, but the sustained oil price spike and rising yields forced a market reassessment. Analysts from Interactive Brokers and Wells Fargo warned of stagflation risks, with higher energy prices reigniting inflation and weighing on consumer spending. The S&P 500 is now down about 2% since the strikes began on July 12, after earlier recovering from a 7.5% drop in March when the war first escalated.