Rearming Japan: Ambition, Constraints, and Limits Under Takaichi

Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan has accelerated its military normalization, reaching a FY2026 defense budget of ¥9.04 trillion, nearly hitting the sensitive 2% of GDP threshold ahead of schedule. This rapid shift, driven by a supermajority mandate, aims to address the China-Taiwan trilemma: deterring Chinese aggression, preparing for Taiwan contingencies, and hedging against uncertain US commitments. Key developments include the March 2026 reorganization of the Self-Defense Forces into centralized command structures, expanded air and space capabilities, and accelerated procurement of systems like Tomahawk missiles. Strategic focus has shifted to fortifying the southwestern Nansei Islands with missile deployments and surveillance infrastructure to protect critical sea lanes. However, this compressed timeline creates trade-offs, risking institutional strain and potential escalation while balancing autonomy with alliance coordination. The article highlights that while deterrence is enhanced, Japan faces structural limits in sustaining this buildup without exhausting its capacity or provoking conflict, marking a significant departure from postwar security norms established by predecessors like Abe and Kishida.