Power Shift in Iran: IRGC Dominance After Khamenei's Death
Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli conflict, Iran has entered a transitional phase characterized by decentralized power and the rising dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). His successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains largely absent from public view due to injuries, leading experts to describe the current system as 'Islamic Republic 3.0.' While Mojtaba holds ultimate authority, his influence is perceived as undermined, with real power shifting to hardline figures and military elites. Key players include Hossein Taeb, a behind-the-scenes operator; Ahmad Vahidi, the new IRGC chief struggling to unite factions; and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who serves as a crucial mediator and negotiator with the United States. The political landscape has become increasingly militarized and ideologically rigid, marginalizing reformists and moderates. This analysis highlights the fissures within the new leadership cohort and the significant role of the IRGC in domestic and foreign affairs, marking a decisive postwar alignment of forces in Tehran.
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