CME FedWatch: 56.5% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October 2023
As of September 22, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 56.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its October 2023 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. The probability of holding rates steady at 3.75%-4.00% is 43.5%. For December, the tool indicates a 46.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 43.9% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase.
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CME FedWatch Shows 56.5% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October 2023
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as of September 22, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its October 2023 meeting stands at 56.5%, while the probability of holding rates steady in the 3.75%-4.00% range is 43.5%. Looking further ahead to the December 2023 meeting, the tool indicates a 9.7% chance of rates remaining unchanged, a 46.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and a 43.9% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase from current levels. These probabilities are derived from federal funds futures pricing data and reflect market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy trajectory.
Read sourceCME FedWatch Shows 56.5% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as reported by CLS (财联社) on September 22, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting is 56.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current federal funds rate target range of 3.75%-4.00% at that meeting is 43.5%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the FedWatch Tool indicates a 9.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged, a 46.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and a 43.9% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. These probabilities are derived from pricing in the federal funds futures market and reflect market expectations for the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.
CME FedWatch Shows 56.5% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October 2023
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, as reported by Jin10 on September 22, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% at its October meeting is 43.5%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 4.00%-4.25% is 56.5%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% is 9.7%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December is 46.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike (i.e., two 25-basis-point hikes in October and December) is 43.9%. These probabilities are derived from federal funds futures pricing and reflect market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
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Fed Rate Hike Probability in October Stands at 56.5%, CME FedWatch Shows
According to CME's FedWatch tool, as reported by tradealpha, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting is 56.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% is 43.5%. Looking ahead to December, the probability that the Fed maintains the current rate range is 10.2%. There is a 46.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point increase by December, and a 33.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point increase. These probabilities reflect market expectations based on futures pricing data, indicating a slight majority expectation for a rate hike in October and a significant expectation for at least one rate increase by the end of the year.
CME FedWatch Shows 56.5% Probability of Federal Reserve Rate Hike in October
According to a September 21 report from Cailian Press, data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 56.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points during its October meeting, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%. Conversely, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the current 3.75%-4.00% range is 43.5%. Looking further ahead to December, the tool shows a 10.2% probability of rates remaining at 3.75%-4.00%, a 46.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and a 33.3% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. These probabilities reflect market expectations based on futures pricing as of the report date.
Read sourceCME FedWatch Tool Shows 56.5% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's October meeting show a 56.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, which would bring the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. Conversely, there is a 43.5% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the current range of 3.75%-4.00%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the tool indicates a 10.2% probability that rates will remain at 3.75%-4.00%. The most likely scenario is a cumulative 25 basis point increase by December, with a 46.6% probability, while there is a 33.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point increase. These probabilities reflect market pricing of futures contracts and are subject to change based on incoming economic data and Fed communications.
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