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CME FedWatch Shows 56.5% Probability of Rate Hike in October
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According to CME's FedWatch tool, as reported by tradealpha, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting is 56.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% is 43.5%. Looking ahead to December, the probability that the Fed maintains the current rate range is 10.2%. There is a 46.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point increase by December, and a 33.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point increase. These probabilities reflect market expectations based on futures pricing data, indicating a slight majority expectation for a rate hike in October and a significant expectation for at least one rate increase by the end of the year.
Source report
According to CME's "FedWatch" data:
October Meeting
- Probability of no rate change (rates held at 3.75%–4.00%): 43.5%
- Probability of a 25 basis point rate hike: 56.5%
December Meeting
- Probability of rates remaining at 3.75%–4.00%: 10.2%
- Probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase: 46.6%
- Probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase: 33.3%
Source
domesticNeutral / independent
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CME FedWatch: 56.5% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October 2023