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CME Data Shows 56.5% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October
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According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as reported by CLS (财联社) on September 22, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting is 56.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current federal funds rate target range of 3.75%-4.00% at that meeting is 43.5%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the FedWatch Tool indicates a 9.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged, a 46.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and a 43.9% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. These probabilities are derived from pricing in the federal funds futures market and reflect market expectations for the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.
Source report
According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings are as follows:
October Meeting
- Probability of maintaining rates at 3.75%–4.00%: 43.5%
- Probability of a 25-basis-point hike: 56.5%
December Meeting
- Probability of maintaining rates at 3.75%–4.00%: 9.7%
- Probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike: 46.4%
- Probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike: 43.9%
Source: CME "FedWatch" as of September 22
Source
财联社Neutral / independent
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CME FedWatch shows 56.5% probability of Fed rate hike in October 2023