Expert: Future Iran-US Deal Likely Limited, Distinct from JCPOA
Oleg Akulinichev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian-Iranian Business Council, predicts that any potential agreement between the United States and Iran will differ significantly from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He characterizes the prospective deal not as a comprehensive peace treaty, but as a technical de-escalation arrangement driven by severe pressure and mutual distrust following military conflicts in 2025-2026. The core proposal involves the US unfreezing Iranian foreign assets in exchange for a temporary halt to Tehran's uranium enrichment activities. However, Washington is expected to demand strict verification measures, including International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to military facilities and total control over centrifuges. This analysis comes amidst ongoing tensions, where a fragile ceasefire was announced in April 2026 after weeks of US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Previous talks in Islamabad failed to yield a long-term settlement, with Tehran rejecting unilateral ceasefire extensions. Akulinichev emphasizes that while nuclear issues remain central, the likelihood of a grand bargain is low, limiting outcomes to short-term commitments and ceasefire extensions rather than a resolved diplomatic breakthrough.
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