CSU Falls to 36 Percent in Bavaria as AfD Hits Record 21 Percent Before Party Congress
Two polls published in October 2026 show the CSU falling to 36 percent in the Bayern-Trend survey by Infratest dimap for Bayerischer Rundfunk, its weakest showing since September 2023, while the AfD reached a record 21 percent in Bavaria. A separate GMS poll for SAT.1 Bayern put the CSU at 37 percent and the AfD at 22 percent. The CSU-Free Voters coalition would hold only a 45 to 44 percent lead over the opposition bloc, and 57 percent of Bavarian respondents wanted Chancellor Friedrich Merz to resign immediately.
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CSU Slumps in Popularity as Bavaria's Political Fringes Gain Ground
Ahead of the CSU party conference, a new Bayern-Trend poll by Infratest dimap for Bayerischer Rundfunk shows the CSU falling to 36 percent, down three points from January and the only state party to lose support. The AfD reaches a record 21 percent, while the Left approaches the five-percent threshold at 4 percent. The Greens rise to 15 percent, the Free Voters hold at 9, and the SPD sits at 8. The current CSU-Free Voters coalition would hold only a razor-thin 45 percent majority, making a black-green alliance a possible scenario. The article notes Söder's history of Green-bashing and his pragmatic adaptability, while also citing FAZ and Münchner Merkur interpretations that the result may still be relatively strong for the CSU. Söder's personal approval is 48 percent, with 49 percent dissatisfied for the first time since 2018.
CSU Slumps in Bavarian Poll as Political Fringes Gain Ahead of Party Congress
A Bayern-Trend poll by Infratest dimap for Bayerischer Rundfunk, published shortly before the CSU party congress, shows the CSU falling to 36 percent, down three points from the previous survey and the only state party to lose support. The AfD reaches 21 percent, its best result in a major Bavarian poll, while the Left approaches the five-percent threshold at 4 percent. The Greens rise to 15 percent, the Free Voters hold at 9 and the SPD at 8. The CSU and Free Voters together would have only 45 percent, barely ahead of the opposition's 44, making a continuation of the current coalition uncertain and raising the prospect of a three-way alliance or Black-Green. The article notes Söder's long history of Green-bashing and his pragmatic adaptability, and reports that 49 percent of respondents are dissatisfied with his work, while 59 percent consider Ilse Aigner a good candidate to succeed President Steinmeier.
Read sourceCSU Falls to 36 Percent Ahead of Party Congress as AfD Hits Record 21 Percent
Ahead of its party congress, the Christian Social Union (CSU) has dropped to 36 percent in the current "Bayerntrend" poll, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has climbed to a record high of 21 percent in Bavaria. The shift in mood comes amid recent sharp exchanges between Bavarian Premier Markus Söder and Left party lawmaker Heidi Reichinnek, though the polling data reflect a broader change in voter sentiment beyond that dispute. The figures indicate weakening support for the CSU in its traditional stronghold and rising support for the AfD in the southern German state.
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CSU Falls to Three-Year Low in Bavaria as AfD Hits Record High
Days before its party conference, the CSU has dropped three points to 36 percent in the Bavarian Trend poll by Infratest dimap for Bayerischer Rundfunk, its weakest showing since September 2023. The AfD gained two points to reach a record 21 percent, narrowing the gap between the two parties to 15 points, the closest ever measured by the institute. The Greens also rose two points to 15 percent, while the Free Voters remained at 9 percent and the SPD at 8 percent. The Left gained one point to 4 percent. The CSU-Free Voter coalition now holds only a 45 to 44 percent lead over the opposition bloc. A separate GMS poll showed similar results. Bavarian Governor Markus Söder's approval rating stands at 48 percent satisfied versus 49 percent dissatisfied.
AfD Gains in Bavaria as CSU Holds Steady; Majority Seek Merz's Immediate Resignation
A GMS poll for SAT.1 Bayern shows the CSU stable at 37% in Bavaria, matching its 2023 state election result but down from 39% in March 2026. The AfD rises four points to 22%, while the Greens gain two to 15%. The Free Voters hold at 10%, the SPD falls to 6%, and both the Left (3%) and FDP (2%) would miss the state parliament. Nationally, the Union polls between 18% and 21%, far below its 28.5% in the 2025 federal election. The survey also finds 57% of Bavarian respondents want Chancellor Friedrich Merz to resign immediately, with only 32% opposed; even among CSU voters, 50% favor his immediate resignation. The poll of 1,011 respondents was conducted October 14–19, 2026, and reflects opinion at that time, not a election forecast.