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GMS poll: CSU steady at 37% in Bavaria, AfD up to 22%; 57% want Merz to resign immediately
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A GMS poll for SAT.1 Bayern shows the CSU stable at 37% in Bavaria, matching its 2023 state election result but down from 39% in March 2026. The AfD rises four points to 22%, while the Greens gain two to 15%. The Free Voters hold at 10%, the SPD falls to 6%, and both the Left (3%) and FDP (2%) would miss the state parliament. Nationally, the Union polls between 18% and 21%, far below its 28.5% in the 2025 federal election. The survey also finds 57% of Bavarian respondents want Chancellor Friedrich Merz to resign immediately, with only 32% opposed; even among CSU voters, 50% favor his immediate resignation. The poll of 1,011 respondents was conducted October 14–19, 2026, and reflects opinion at that time, not a election forecast.
Source report
Bayern's Ministerpräsident Markus Söder (CSU). Source: Christoph Reichwein/dpa
The CSU maintains its lead in Bavaria, but the AfD has gained four percentage points. 57 percent of respondents want Chancellor Friedrich Merz to resign immediately.
While the Union's nationwide poll numbers have fallen below 20 percent, the CSU remains stable in Bavaria. According to a recent poll, Ministerpräsident Markus Söder's party still stands at 37 percent. The findings come from a GMS poll commissioned by "17:30 SAT.1 Bayern," first reported by the Münchner Merkur.
This would confirm the CSU's result from the 2023 state election, though it falls short of the party's GMS polling figure from March 2026 (39 percent). Behind the CSU, the AfD takes second place with 22 percent, gaining four percentage points compared to the March poll.
The Greens follow with 15 percent (+2), the Free Voters with 10 percent (unchanged), and the SPD with 6 percent (-1). The Left (3 percent) and the FDP (2 percent) would once again clearly fail to enter the state parliament.
Poll Results at a Glance
- CSU: 37 percent (-2 compared to March 2026)
- AfD: 22 percent (+4)
- Greens: 15 percent (+2)
- Free Voters: 10 percent (unchanged)
- SPD: 6 percent (-1)
- The Left: 3 percent (unchanged)
- FDP: 2 percent (unchanged)
At the federal level, the Union currently polls between 18 and 21 percent — in the 2025 federal election, the CDU and CSU together won 28.5 percent.
The AfD is the winner of the Bavarian poll — it achieved only 14.6 percent in the 2023 election — but the Greens also record a slight gain compared to the election three years ago.
The biggest loser compared to the 2023 election result is the Free Voters, who won 15.8 percent at the time. The SPD must also accept further losses (2023: 8.4 percent).
Majority Favors Merz's Immediate Resignation
Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) fares less well in the poll: 57 percent of respondents in the state demand his immediate resignation. Only just under a third (32 percent) disagree. Even among CSU voters, Merz has few supporters: 50 percent of them want his immediate resignation, while only 42 percent oppose it.
Election polls are always subject to uncertainty. Among other factors, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it harder for polling institutes to weight the data collected. Fundamentally, polls reflect only the state of opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of election outcomes.
The poll was conducted by GMS Dr. Jung GmbH on behalf of SAT.1 Bayern. According to the institute, it is a representative survey based on a combined telephone and online sample of 1,011 respondents in Bavaria. The survey was conducted from October 14 to 19, 2026.
dpa/saha
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