CSU falls to three-year low in Bavaria as AfD hits record high

BayernTrend survey by Infratest dimap shows the gap between the CSU and AfD narrowing to just 15 points — the closest the two parties have ever been in the institute's polling.

Just days before its party conference, the CSU has slipped to its weakest polling figure in Bavaria in three years. In the latest "BayernTrend" by Infratest dimap, commissioned by Bavarian public broadcaster BR, Minister-President Markus Söder's party has lost three percentage points and now stands at just 36 percent.

The last time the institute recorded the CSU this low was in September 2023, just weeks before the state election. In January, the Christian Social Union was still at 39 percent, and at the start of the legislative period in January 2024, at 40 percent. The current figure also puts the CSU below its result in the 2023 state election (37.0 percent).

The AfD has gained two points, reaching 21 percent — the highest level Infratest dimap has ever measured for the party in Bavaria.

The gap between the CSU and the AfD has thus shrunk to 15 percentage points. The two parties have never been this close in Infratest dimap surveys; in January, the margin was still 20 points.

The Greens have also gained two points, reaching 15 percent — their highest level since September 2023. The Free Voters, who govern in coalition with the CSU, remain unchanged at 9 percent, nearly seven points below their 2023 election result of 15.8 percent. The SPD stays at 8 percent. The Left gains one point and, at 4 percent, would narrowly fail to clear the five-percent threshold — but this marks its highest Infratest dimap figure since 2018.

This makes the arithmetic increasingly tight for the CSU–Free Voters coalition. According to the survey, the two governing parties would together reach 45 percent, while the three opposition parties — the AfD, Greens, and SPD — would reach 44 percent. In January, the governing camp's lead was still eight points. If the Left were to enter the state parliament with its 4 percent, the black-orange coalition would no longer have a majority.

BayernTrend Polling Figures at a Glance

| Party | Support | Change | |---|---|---| | CSU | 36% | −3 | | AfD | 21% | +2 | | Greens | 15% | +2 | | Free Voters | 9% | ±0 | | SPD | 8% | ±0 | | Left | 4% | +1 | | Others | 7% | −2 |

A similar picture emerges from a GMS poll published on Monday on behalf of Sat.1 Bayern. There, the CSU stands at 37 percent and the AfD at 22 percent. The Greens are also at 15 percent in the GMS survey, with the Free Voters at 10 percent.

According to the BayernTrend, 48 percent of respondents are satisfied with Söder's work as minister-president, while 49 percent express dissatisfaction.

The CSU won the October 2023 state election with 37.0 percent — its weakest result since 1950 — and has since governed again in coalition with the Free Voters. The Union is also under pressure at the federal level: in all current nationwide surveys, the CDU and CSU trail the AfD by a clear margin.

The CSU will gather for its party conference this weekend. The next Bavarian state election will be held in 2028. For the BayernTrend, Infratest dimap surveyed 1,207 eligible voters in Bavaria by telephone and online from October 12 to 17.