Bavaria poll: CSU falls to 36%, AfD hits record 21%

Just before the CSU party conference, party leader Söder receives bad news. A new poll conjures up a specter: Black-Green.

By Dominik Baur, Munich

It will be another two years before Bavaria holds its next election. Forecasts about the outcome are premature. And yet the Bayern-Trend, the major Infratest dimap poll for Bavarian Broadcasting, is particularly revealing this time—perhaps more than just a snapshot of public sentiment. For if it truly reflects a trend, it does not bode well for the current government coalition of the CSU and Free Voters.

To be sure, the CSU would reportedly remain by far the strongest parliamentary group and could still justifiably claim the title of Volkspartei (people's party)—something its sister party, the CDU, has long had to abandon in some federal states. But the fringes are gaining ground in Bavaria too. The AfD reaches its best result ever in a major Bavarian poll: with 21 percent of the vote, it would massively improve on its result in the 2023 state election. And the Left Party, which won just 1.5 percent in the last election, would approach the five-percent threshold. Still from below (at 4 percent), but an entry into the state parliament seems more likely than at any time in eight years.

The CSU stands at 36 percent in the poll, three percentage points lower than in the last Bayern-Trend in January. It is thus the only state parliament party losing ground in the survey. The Greens gain two percentage points to reach 15 percent, the Free Voters remain at 9, and the Social Democrats at 8 percent. Parties such as the BSW, FDP, ÖDP, and Bavaria Party would currently play no major role in the state election, but would ensure that the bloc of "others" is correspondingly large.

The CSU Has Bid Farewell to Absolute Majority

After the disastrous municipal elections in March for the CSU, such a result in the state election would be a setback for the party of Minister-President Markus Söder. But it is significant primarily for another reason: it would only barely suffice to continue the current government of the CSU and Free Voters. The two parties together would reach 45 percent, while the opposition parties would reach 44. Even a change in the decimal range could tip the black-orange majority. Moreover, the poll does not report decimal places.

In the past, an absolute majority was always the CSU's clear goal. From 1962 to 2003, the party achieved it every time. And even in 2013—under Horst Seehofer. During Markus Söder's tenure, however, the party has long since come to terms with the fact that absolute majorities are outside the realm of possibility. The alliance with the Free Voters, who were already regarded as "flesh of the CSU's flesh," replaced pure CSU governance. Since the political differences with them are very limited and they have proven to be a fairly low-maintenance coalition partner despite various escapades by their leader Hubert Aiwanger, governing with them has been quite comfortable.

So what if this alliance no longer suffices? Assuming no democratic party would pact with the AfD, the CSU would only have a three-way coalition with the Free Voters and SPD—or, the most obvious solution, Black-Green. This would above all put Söder in a bind. Hardly any Union politician has engaged in such fierce Green-bashing in recent years as he has. CDU Minister-Presidents Hendrik Wüst and Daniel Günther, who govern with the Greens in their states, must regularly endure jibes from Söder.

Commitment to Free Voters Unlikely

There are exceptions to the rule, such as Winfried Kretschmann and, more recently, Cem Özdemir and Dominik Krause, with whom Söder has maintained a good working relationship. But they confirm the rule; the CSU leader never made a secret of the fact that he harbors a deep aversion, particularly toward the Bavarian Greens.

Among the Greens, sympathy for Black-Green as the only realistic power option is very high, though cooperation with a CSU under Söder is difficult to imagine. For many in the CSU, the mere thought of possible cooperation with Katharina Schulze already causes physical pain. The parliamentary group leader is the strong woman among the Bavarian Greens and would likely lead them as top candidate into the next election campaign.

Despite all his aversion to the Greens, Söder is considered a highly adaptable pragmatist. Unlike in the 2023 campaign, he would hardly commit early to the Free Voters as a coalition partner this time. He has also noticeably scaled back his attacks on the Greens in the recent past. Currently, his attacks are directed more toward the Left Party.

Of course, the Bayern-Trend numbers can also be read quite differently. What are three percentage points, after all? Especially since it is only 1.2 percentage points if one takes the CSU's 2023 election result as the reference point rather than the previous Bayern-Trend.

Clear Majority for Aigner as Federal President

And the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung recalls a rule of thumb according to which the CSU can usually only be at most ten percentage points above the national trend. Taking this into account, the newspaper calculates that the 36 percent in the poll, measured against the 18 to 21 percent for the Union nationally, is "clearly more than some had feared, others perhaps hoped." The Münchner Merkur also sees reason for joy for the CSU and its leader. "CSU defies the national trend," it headlines, and attests of Söder: "He is firmly back in the saddle."

Delegates will likely head into the party conference beginning Friday in Munich with mixed feelings. Söder himself can at least point to his personal popularity ratings. Nearly half of respondents rate the Minister-President's work positively. But here too there is a bitter pill: for the first time since 2018, the number of those dissatisfied with Söder's work, at 49 percent, exceeds that of the satisfied (48 percent).

Only Ilse Aigner can be truly pleased: according to 59 percent of respondents, the CSU state parliament president would be a good choice to succeed Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Only 22 percent consider her a bad choice.

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