Commentary warns Brazil faces 'dark years' after first presidential round

Commentary by Niklas Franzen

Published: October 5, 2026, 15:59 UTC

Lula da Silva's supporters still hold hope that he can win the runoff election. Photo: Eraldo Peres / AP

Few can truly explain why this uncharismatic copy of his father — right-wing populist former President Jair Bolsonaro — performed so well in the first round of the presidential election. "01," or "Zero Um," as the firstborn is called by his father, is knee-deep in a series of scandals. Ties to criminal groups and corruption allegations have tarnished the image of the upright, God-fearing family man.

What can be said, however, is that this was not only a vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, but against Lula. In the 21st century, the left has achieved more electoral victories in Brazil than anywhere else in the world. This inevitably leads to wear and tear. The tribune of the people, Lula, still moves the masses — but only a portion of the population. He also represents a feeling that the country is not progressing, that it is becoming increasingly unsafe.

One might argue: let the Bolsonarists govern. After all, they already disillusioned themselves during their first term. Ultimately, Bolsonaro 1.0 failed for two reasons: his incompetence and the democratic institutions.

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However, a Bolsonaro Junior administration could be fundamentally different. After a series of scandals, the Supreme Court is unlikely to exercise the same oversight function. On Sunday, the parliament shifted even further to the right. And in the United States, Donald Trump — a grande amigo of the Bolsonaros — is in power. Speaking of Trump: Brazil's right wing could learn from him how to force through a second term with a crowbar.

Now is not the time to panic — and above all, to wait for the runoff election. Three weeks remain to avert what, from a left-wing perspective, looms as a catastrophe. If that fails, Brazil could face politically very dark years.

About the Author

Niklas Franzen is a journalist and former Brazil correspondent. In May 2022, his book "Brasilien über alles — Bolsonaro und die rechte Revolte" was published by Assoziation A.

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