Iran's tough stance boosts oil ETFs; US PMI beat strengthens rate hike bets, gold ETFs fall

Hong Kong stocks closed with modest losses on Tuesday, as tech and gold stocks weighed on the market, while oil-related shares bucked the trend with strong gains.

Market Overview

• Hang Seng Index: Fell 0.29% to 24,761.13 points. Total turnover reached HKD 159.552 billion.
• Hang Seng Tech Index: Declined 0.41% to 4,361.13 points.

Hong Kong-listed ETF Performance

| ETF | Ticker | Change | Price (HKD) | |-----|--------|--------|-------------| | Tracker Fund of Hong Kong | 02800 | -0.24% | 25.38 | | CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index | 03033 | -0.19% | 4.272 | | CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product | 07709 | -3.01% | 42.52 |

Sector Highlights

Energy & Oil: Rally on Geopolitical Risk Premium

Iran's强硬 stance reversed earlier hopes of de-escalation, pushing geopolitical risk premiums back into the market. Oil and gas ETFs rebounded sharply.

• Energy & Chemical ETF CCB (159981.SZ): +4.23%, CNY 1.749
• S&P Oil & Gas ETF Fullgoal (513350.SH): +1.55%, CNY 1.314
• S&P Oil & Gas ETF Harvest (159518.SZ): +1.47%, CNY 1.246

Key driver: Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Iran's conditions are met. During the UN General Assembly, both the U.S. and Iran maintained强硬 positions, dashing market expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough or geopolitical降温. Short sellers who had prematurely priced in a de-escalation were forced to cover.

Oil price impact:

• WTI November crude futures: +1.81%, closing at $92.16/barrel, ending the longest losing streak since February 26.
• Brent November crude futures: +3.86%, closing at $103.08/barrel, marking the largest single-day gain since September 10. Both benchmarks snapped a five-day losing streak.

Analyst views:

• CITIC Securities: Geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt crude supply expectations, intensifying global supply concerns. Oil, gas, and coal—as irreplaceable strategic physical assets—offer inflation resilience and outperform general financial assets in stagflationary environments. Energy companies are increasingly viewed as "strong free cash flow + high dividend + sustained buyback" value assets.
• Everbright Securities: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are forcing some crude to take alternative routes or rely on ship-to-ship transfers. Effective shipping capacity is tightening, and with seasonal demand recovery in Q4, freight rates are expected to remain elevated.

Gold & Precious Metals: Under Pressure from Rate Hike Expectations

Stronger-than-expected U.S. PMI data and hawkish Fed commentary reignited rate hike bets, dragging down gold-related ETFs.

• Gold Stock ETF Guotai (517400.SH): -4.38%, CNY 1.506
• Gold Stock ETF Yongying (517520.SH): -4.32%, CNY 1.905
• Gold Stock ETF Huaan (159321.SZ): -4.12%, CNY 1.465

Key data points:

• S&P Global: U.S. September composite PMI rose to 58.4, the highest since July 2021. Manufacturing PMI hit 57. Business input costs saw their largest increase since October 2022.
• Fed Governor Michael Barr: Stated that risks to achieving the 2% inflation target have increased, while labor market risks have diminished. He noted that "further rate hikes may be necessary" to bring inflation back to target.
• CME data: Market pricing for a Fed rate hike in October briefly exceeded 70%.

Market impact:

• 5-year U.S. Treasury yield: Rose 17 basis points, briefly breaking above 5% for the first time since 2007.
• 10-year yield: Climbed above 5.1%.
• U.S. Dollar Index: Approached a two-month high.
• COMEX gold futures: Fell 1.23% to $4,322.7/oz.

Analyst views:

• Shenyin & Wanguo Futures: In the near term, until rate hike expectations cool, U.S. bond yields and the dollar will remain elevated, limiting the rebound potential for precious metals.
• Zhengxin Futures: Strong U.S. economic data has raised expectations for an October rate hike, increasing short-term upward pressure on precious metals.

Institutional Outlook

Liu Gang, Chief Overseas & Hong Kong Strategist at CICC Research:

• External liquidity will only amplify volatility when fundamentals are weak. China's domestic economic trajectory is more critical.
• If China's economic recovery exceeds expectations, Hong Kong stocks can withstand external pressure.
• The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade in a range of 24,000 to 26,000 points.
• For a sustained rebound, two catalysts are needed:

1. Significant fiscal policy support directed at households to boost market elasticity.
2. Major internet and AI companies delivering earnings results to move past the current "transitional" phase.

New ETF Listings

Several thematic ETFs made their debut today, all closing lower:

| ETF | Ticker | Change | Price (CNY) | Turnover (CNY) | Tracking Index | |-----|--------|--------|-------------|----------------|----------------| | N Industrial Nonferrous Metals ETF GF | 512470.SH | -3.21% | 0.965 | 43.7991 million | CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (copper, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten) | | N Chip Design ETF Harvest | 589480.SH | -2.97% | 1.013 | 122 million | SSE STAR Chip Design Theme Index | | N AI ETF China Southern | 515470.SH | -2.01% | 0.977 | 37.5772 million | CSI AI Theme Index | | GEM Computing Power ETF China Southern | 158063.SZ | -2.39% | 0.98 | 55.2964 million | GEM Computing Power Infrastructure Index (computing, networking, storage, operations) | | Hang Seng Tech ETF Fullgoal | 158042.SZ | -1.6% | 0.986 | 60.3608 million | Hang Seng Tech Index (QDII) | | GEM Computing Power ETF Harvest | 158056.SZ | -2.68% | 0.98 | 87.8397 million | GEM Computing Power Infrastructure Index |