CITIC Securities: 2026 could be turning point for liquid cooling orders and revenue

AI computing has officially entered the "all-liquid cooling" era, with liquid cooling upgrading from an "optional configuration" to "rigid infrastructure." Led by NVIDIA's Rubin, mainstream platforms including Google TPU v7/v8, AMD Helios, and ByteDance AI Rack 3.0 have collectively shifted from "high-proportion liquid cooling / air-liquid hybrid" to 100% all-liquid cooling, zero-fan architectures. Combined with tight overseas production capacity, accelerating domestic manufacturers' overseas shipments, and the centralized rollout of national standards, 2026 is expected to be a turning point for concentrated order and performance realization across the liquid cooling supply chain.

Rubin Paradigm: From "Air-Liquid Hybrid" to "Zero Fans," Per-Cabinet Value Reaches a New Level

NVIDIA officially defines Rubin as "the world's first AI infrastructure to achieve 100% liquid cooling." The system contains no fans, uses 45°C water inlet and single-phase direct-to-chip liquid cooling, significantly reducing mechanical cooling demand and enabling a "no chiller" natural cooling path. The VR200 NVL72 single-cabinet power consumption rises to 190–230 kW. According to NVIDIA's CES, GTC, and earnings calls, Vera-Rubin will be announced in January 2026, enter production ramp-up by the end of May, begin mass production in Q3, and start deliveries in Q4. Large-scale volume ramp-up is expected from late 2026 to 2027, with production timelines likely to be accelerated.

Beyond NVIDIA: All-Liquid Cooling Is an Industry-Wide Architecture Shift

• Google TPU v7 (Ironwood): Each Pod contains 9,216 liquid-cooled chips, with cluster FP8 computing power of 42.5 ExaFLOPS and single-chip TDP of approximately 980W. 100% liquid cooling is a mandatory standard, with over 1 GW of third-generation liquid cooling infrastructure already in production.
• TPU v8: Adopts fourth-generation liquid cooling.
• AMD Helios / MI455X: Integrates 72 GPUs, uses liquid cooling manifold + quick-connect direct liquid cooling, with shipments beginning at the end of Q3 2026 and volume ramp-up in Q4. Schneider's reference design features a 246 kW rack, scalable to 10.4 MW.

This industry-wide shift means liquid cooling demand is expanding from "single-chip" to full-cabinet end-to-end integration.

Significant Overseas Infrastructure Gaps, Smooth Domestic Manufacturer Exports

According to TrendForce data, global AI data centers...

National Standards Rollout Accelerates Mass Production, Gross Margin Recovery on the Horizon

2026 marks the year for the concentrated implementation of liquid cooling standard systems, driving the industry from "project-based customization" to "standardized mass production," resolving issues of interface incompatibility and specification variations. The liquid cooling equipment industry is expected to continue its downward trend in H1 2026, with gross margins potentially recovering in H2 as scale effects emerge. The competitive focus is shifting from "ability to supply" to "ability to system-integrate."

Risk Factors

• Risk of demand falling short of expectations
• Risk of intensified competition compressing profitability
• Risk of Rubin mass production and delivery timelines falling short of expectations
• Risk of technology roadmap iteration
• Risk of overseas geopolitical and trade uncertainties

Investment Strategy

Liquid cooling demand is expanding from GPUs and CPUs to full-cabinet heat sources including power supplies and optical modules, driving continuous industry expansion. The AI cabinet liquid cooling investment theme is shifting from single-chip cooling to full-cabinet thermal management. With Rubin and Google TPU V8 entering full-scale mass production, the liquid cooling industry is about to enter a concentrated period of order and performance realization. Investment opportunities along the liquid cooling supply chain can be explored through four main themes:

1. Air-cooling manufacturers transitioning to liquid cooling – existing customer bases and system integration capabilities are their greatest assets.
2. Connector manufacturers extending into liquid cooling connectors – high stickiness once included in the BOM, with per-generation value increases.
3. Thermal management manufacturers transitioning to liquid cooling – extending material/component capabilities to system-level solutions, achieving significant value jumps.
4. Other manufacturers跨界 entering liquid cooling – offering the greatest upside potential.

(Source: People's Financial News)