Trump at UN: Iran deal possible after midterms, oil could plunge

Iran: A Major Decision Ahead

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, President Donald Trump reiterated his earlier prediction that the United States would reach an agreement with Iran shortly after the November midterm elections. He also stated that if the conflict with Iran ends, oil prices could fall sharply—potentially even below pre-conflict levels.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump said on September 9 that he believed the U.S. conflict with Iran would "end immediately" after the November midterm elections. On September 13, he further stated that the conflict would end right after the elections, adding that "gasoline prices will drop quickly."

On Tuesday, Trump repeated this timeline, saying Iran is waiting for the U.S. midterm results. However, he insisted he would not consider electoral factors in his Iran decision-making. "I have a major decision to make," Trump said. "Either reach a deal with Iran, or send Iran to hell."

Trump declared he would never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. He described two options: reaching an agreement that would allow Iran to rebuild and become "a far stronger country than ever before," or taking further military action.

Negotiation and Military Pressure in Parallel

Iran remained a central theme of Trump's UN address. He stated that the U.S. had given Iran multiple opportunities to negotiate but ultimately took military action, claiming that U.S. forces had destroyed Iran's air force and navy.

"After giving Iran every chance to reach a deal, I ultimately took action, and we completely eliminated Iran's air force and navy," Trump said.

Regarding next steps, Trump said: "I have a major decision to make: either reach a deal that allows Iran to rebuild and create a country far stronger than before—perhaps one of the greatest nations in the Middle East or even the world—or quickly destroy the Islamic Republic."

He then offered his assessment of negotiation prospects: "I believe we will reach a deal immediately after the elections."

Trump also noted that Iran is waiting for the midterm results to gauge his political standing, but emphasized he would not change his position on Iran due to the elections.

According to reports, Trump also called on other nations to impose "complete economic isolation" on Iran to increase economic pressure.

Media analysis suggests Trump's speech sent a signal of "negotiation alongside military pressure": he expects a possible post-election deal but has not ruled out escalating military action before one is reached.

Military Capabilities: Ammunition Reserves Exceed Expected Usage

Trump emphasized the United States' sustained military capabilities. He stated that the U.S. is expanding its military support capacity, with ammunition reserves far exceeding expected usage levels, and that large ammunition factories are being established—18 of which will become operational.

Trump said the U.S. has sufficient military reserves and is expanding ammunition production capacity, adding that major changes could occur rapidly.

This statement aligns with Trump's retention of military options regarding Iran: even as he anticipates a possible post-election deal, the U.S. continues to strengthen its military readiness.

Energy: Oil Prices Could Fall Below Pre-Conflict Levels

Energy prices were another key topic in Trump's address. He stated that oil flows have reached their highest levels since the war began. If the Iran conflict ends, oil prices would drop significantly, potentially even below pre-conflict levels.

"If the war ends, oil prices will drop significantly," Trump said.

This directly links oil price trends to the resolution of the Iran conflict: if military hostilities end and energy supply risks decrease, the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in crude oil prices could decline markedly.

However, Trump's retention of the option for further military action means that the premise for "significant oil price drops" remains the eventual end of the Iran conflict—not that Trump's speech itself signals an imminent end.

Market reaction to the Iran situation was cautious. Reuters noted that investors were monitoring both the possibility of U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump's statements about potential further military action, with international oil prices continuing to fluctuate around $100 per barrel.

The Wall Street Journal reported that as expectations for U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks at the UN General Assembly cooled, Brent crude briefly rose above $100 per barrel.

AI: U.S. to Rename "Artificial Intelligence" as "Superintelligence"

Trump further clarified U.S. AI policy direction at the UN General Assembly, building on previous statements about AI development speed.

"We will only encourage superintelligence. We will encourage it, not restrict it," Trump said—the most striking statement on AI in his address.

He added that the U.S. Department of Justice will closely monitor AI development: "We will keep a close eye on it through the Department of Justice."

Trump also stated: "The United States is the world leader in superintelligence and will continue to maintain that leadership in a safe and responsible manner."

He added that Americans have never retreated from new technological frontiers, no matter how great the challenge.

Trump further proposed redefining the term "artificial intelligence." He suggested that future U.S. government documents should refer to "artificial intelligence" as "superintelligence," because the word "artificial" makes the intelligence seem "fake," which he believes it is not.

Trump noted that every major new technology brings challenges, and "superintelligence" is no exception, but the U.S. will not slow its development. "I will not stifle the development of a technology that could be greater than the Industrial Revolution," he said.

Trump's stance on AI contrasts with calls from UN Secretary-General António Guterres and some AI companies and national leaders to establish international safety guardrails. Guterres has warned that AI is developing at an astonishing pace, faster than humanity's ability to understand its full consequences, and has called for safety measures. A UN AI expert panel also released a report warning of the risk that increasingly powerful AI models could spiral out of control.

Trump's position is that while maintaining safe and responsible development, the U.S. should continue to advance superintelligence rather than restrict its growth through international mechanisms.

Russia-Ukraine: Emphasis on Ending the Conflict

On the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump continued to stress the need to end the conflict during his UN address.

The Wall Street Journal reported that in his approximately 35-minute speech, Trump positioned himself as a force for peace while emphasizing that the U.S. is using its strength to resolve long-standing international issues.

Trump also reviewed his administration's policy achievements and stated that he had helped bring multiple conflicts to an end.

During his UN visit, Trump also arranged a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. How the Russia-Ukraine war will end remained a key topic on Trump's New York diplomatic agenda.

"America First": Emphasizing U.S. Strength and Sovereignty

Trump's UN address overall continued the "America First" foreign policy framework. He stated: "While others are still talking, I have already taken action."

Trump said he does not want to allow dangers to accumulate and prefers to use American strength to address long-standing problems.

Bloomberg reported that Trump's speech continued his emphasis on U.S. sovereignty and interests, while criticizing international institutions for imposing excessive constraints on U.S. policy.

From Iran and energy to AI, Trump's UN General Assembly address conveyed a focused message: on Iran, he expects a possible post-election deal but retains the option for further military action; on energy, he believes the end of the conflict will drive oil prices significantly lower; and on AI, he made clear that the U.S. will "only encourage superintelligence," not restrict its development.

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