Apple enters foldable market with iPhone Duo starting at 15,999 yuan

Author: Hu Xiao Original Publication: Shenmou Finance (chutou0325)

After a seven-year wait, Apple finally unveiled its first foldable smartphone at its September 2026 fall event. New CEO John Ternus took the stage in Cupertino to introduce the iPhone Duo, a foldable device with a starting price of ¥15,999 and a top-tier configuration at ¥26,499. When unfolded, it features a 7.6-inch inner display; when folded, it is roughly the size of a passport. This is the most expensive iPhone ever released, and Apple has made no attempt to test the market with "value for money." Instead, it has firmly positioned the device as an ultra-premium foldable.

However, Chinese manufacturers have already explored nearly every conceivable foldable form factor. Huawei has secured the high-end market above ¥10,000 with its Mate XT 2 tri-fold and Pura X series "wide-fold" devices. Xiaomi's 18 Fold adopts a "mid-fold" form factor in an effort to push further into premium territory. vivo and OPPO have focused more on daily usability—vivo with a dedicated system and large-screen efficiency, and OPPO with hinge engineering to minimize creases. In short, while Chinese brands have been running laps in the foldable race, Apple is just now stepping up to the starting line.

So, what does Apple's entry really mean? Has the foldable category finally reached the point where it can transition from a niche novelty to a mainstream主力?

01 First-Mover Advantage Does Not Guarantee Victory

Since Samsung launched the Galaxy Fold in 2019, the foldable smartphone赛道 has been running for seven years. Yet, only Huawei and Samsung have truly made foldables a core pillar of their premium branding. Apple's entry is less about a "crushing blow" and more about legitimizing the market.

On September 7, 2026, Counterpoint Research released its latest global foldable smartphone market forecast: by the end of 2026, cumulative global shipments of foldable smartphones will exceed 100 million units. Samsung's share is expected to drop from 40% in 2025 to 38%, while Apple is projected to capture 25% in its first year, with Huawei holding steady at around 22%.

Together, these three players will account for over 80% of the market. This signals that foldables are no longer a category "anyone can try." They are becoming a赛道 accessible only to brands with strong premium positioning and deep supply chain integration. Apple's entry is an official confirmation that foldables are a high-end category worth cultivating.

In this category, the advantage of Chinese manufacturers lies not in "who did it first," but in the depth of their product matrices and the precision of their scenario positioning.

• Huawei released the Mate XT 2 Ultimate Design tri-fold in September 2026, powered by the Kirin 9050 Pro chip, starting at ¥19,999—a direct competitor to Apple.
• Xiaomi filled the "mid-fold" gap with the 18 Fold, priced at ¥10,999, featuring the self-developed Xuanjie O3 chip and domestic Changxin LPDDR6 memory.
• OPPO focused on hinge engineering with the Find N6, becoming the world's first foldable flagship to receive TÜV Rheinland certification for "seamless crease after 600,000 folds."
• vivo centered on "large screen + AI productivity" with the X Fold6, equipped with the custom OriginOS 6 Fold system and the Blue Crystal x Dimensity 9500 chip.

Each brand is using differentiated positioning to defend its price segment and use case. The积累 of Chinese manufacturers in foldables is no longer just about "running a few steps ahead." It involves forming distinct technological paths in hinges, system adaptation, and AI interaction.

The shelf life of first-mover advantage depends on whether Chinese manufacturers can turn "being first" into "being indispensable." One notable data point: IDC reports that in Q1 2026, OPPO's share of the domestic foldable market rose slightly from 4.9% to 6%, ranking third. Despite the Find N6 becoming the best-selling foldable of the quarter, the share increase was limited.

In contrast, Honor doubled its domestic foldable market share from 9.1% to 21% in the same period—the only brand to achieve this. The Honor Magic V6, with its 7,150mAh battery and slim,直板机-like body, drove growth, selling nearly 200,000 units in a single quarter.

This shows that in the foldable category, "being first" does not constitute an absolute barrier. Latecomers can double their share quickly if they find a breakthrough in product definition.

Ultimately, how long Chinese manufacturers' first-mover advantage lasts depends not on when Apple enters, but on whether they can keep users within their ecosystems before Apple makes foldables "good enough."

02 The Foldable Market Is Advancing

Every industry, at a certain stage, revolves around a core competitive issue. In the early days of new energy vehicles, it was range and charging speed. For smartphones, it was touch interaction and app ecosystems around the iPhone 4 era. Today, foldables are at a similar inflection point.

If the competitive theme for the past seven years was "making the product," starting in 2026, it may shift to "making the product usable." The first signal of this change is the crease.

The crease was once the most criticized aspect of foldables and a major reason many hesitated to buy. But in recent years, manufacturers have invested more effort than outsiders realize.

• OPPO Find N6 uses a second-generation titanium alloy hinge and memory glass, reducing hinge surface fluctuation from 0.18mm to 0.1mm, improving bending resistance by 338%, and achieving 99.9% shape self-recovery after folding.
• Apple iPhone Duo features a hinge composed of over 100 components, using multi-layer coatings and custom adhesives to allow each layer to move independently during folding, reducing panel deformation.

While the crease has not been completely eliminated, it has moved from a "deal-breaker" to an "acceptable engineering compromise."

With basic hardware issues gradually resolved, manufacturers can focus on software and experience refinement. This opens space for AI to become the new value anchor for foldables.

vivo Vice President Huang Tao noted during a launch event: "Despite continuous hardware improvements, many users still use the inner screen less than 30% of the time." This highlights that large-screen hardware capabilities are already in place, but the corresponding software ecosystem and AI interaction capabilities lag far behind.

Fortunately, several manufacturers are shifting the value proposition of foldables from hardware specs to AI task-carrying capacity. For example, the vivo X Fold6 features the industry's first custom OriginOS 6 Fold operating system for large screens, supporting "Atomic Workstation" for five apps on one screen. The Blue Crystal x Dimensity 9500 chip not only delivers high performance and low power consumption but also supports on-device AI experiences like AI File Manager and AI Meeting Assistant.

Apple's introduction of the Apple Pencil into the iPhone ecosystem sends a similar signal: the value anchor of foldables is shifting from hardware specs to "how many AI tasks can run simultaneously" and "how many light office scenarios can be replaced."

Diversification of form factors is the third signal of category maturity, not market chaos.

Vertical fold, horizontal fold, tri-fold, wide-fold—2026 offers more foldable form factors than ever before. According to Counterpoint Research, global foldable panel shipments in the first half of 2026 fell 13% year-over-year. However, internal structure is shifting dramatically: large-fold panel shipments grew 35%, with share jumping from 50% to 78%, while clamshell panel shipments plummeted 62%, dropping to 21%. This form factor divergence indicates that manufacturers are no longer blindly following trends but are making trade-offs based on real user scenarios.

• Huawei's Pura X series "wide-fold" form factor has carved a differentiated path. Cumulative shipments of the series have exceeded 2.9 million units, with the Pura X Max alone surpassing 1.2 million units in just four months. Unlike the tri-fold and Mate series, which appeal more to middle-aged business men, the Pura series' primary user base is women. The screen ratio perfectly fits 4:3 photos, displays two more lines of content on Xiaohongshu notes, and matches the text width of a paperback book when reading e-books.
• Xiaomi's 18 Fold takes a different "mid-fold" approach. Weighing 219 grams with a 7.58-inch inner screen close to A4 paper ratio, it targets users who find traditional large folds too heavy but don't want to compromise on performance and battery life with a clamshell. The mid-fold allows users to retain the feel of a daily driver while keeping a screen they are willing to unfold.

Each form factor corresponds to different use cases and user profiles. A category with only one "correct" form factor would be unhealthy.

The crease is fading into the background, AI is taking over, and form factor differentiation is accelerating. When "can it fold?" is no longer the question, "what do you do with it folded?" becomes the new proposition every manufacturer must answer.

03 The Foldable's "Coming of Age" Is Not Yet Complete

If you only look at the excitement of each launch event, foldables seem to have reached their golden moment. But shifting focus from the stage to real market data reveals a more complex picture.

Behind the ¥10,000+ price tags lies cost transmission across the entire supply chain, not manufacturers "price gouging." The rise in storage chip prices is the core reason for the general price increase of foldables in 2026.

Counterpoint reports that smartphone memory prices rose by over 80% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026. In flagship devices priced above $800, DRAM has surpassed the SoC to become the most expensive single component.

At the same time, upgrades to foldable screens, hinges, and shafts, along with synchronized price increases for 3nm/2nm flagship processors, have collectively pushed prices higher. However, because foldables already have a high price base, consumers are less sensitive to price increases than with mid-to-low-end models. This gives manufacturers a relatively comfortable window for technological investment.

When cost pressures cannot be absorbed through price cuts, the only option is to make the product "worth the price." In the long run, this may not be a bad thing for the category's technological evolution.

Cost determines that foldables "cannot be cheap," but what truly determines how far this category can go is how many units it can actually sell. Currently, foldable penetration remains in the single digits—a reality that also represents significant room for growth.

TrendForce data shows that global foldable shipments in 2025 were approximately 19.8 million units, with a penetration rate of just 1.6%, essentially flat compared to 2024. Counterpoint Research forecasts that in 2026, foldables will account for only about 2% of the overall smartphone market.

A category with single-digit penetration has already attracted investment from nearly all major smartphone manufacturers. This indicates both the strong appeal of the foldable segment and that its ceiling is far from reached.

Moreover, the influx of manufacturers brings not only competition but also a positive cycle for the supply chain.

According to New Express, Apple's entry has generated an incremental demand expectation of tens of millions of units. Upstream panel makers and structural component manufacturers are evaluating capacity expansion and process iteration investments. Developers must also reassess whether large-screen adaptation is worthwhile. The heat from终端 devices has already translated into variables for the supply chain. For example, Samsung Display has reportedly restarted construction of its new A7 factory in Asan, dedicated to foldable flexible OLED production lines.

TrendForce predicts that driven by Apple's entry, foldable penetration could rise from 1.6% in 2025 to over 3% by 2027.

The growth rate is not aggressive, but the direction is clear: capacity expansion drives yield improvement, yield improvement drives cost reduction, cost reduction allows more price segments to adopt foldable forms, a larger user base raises the return expectations for developer adaptation, further maturing the app ecosystem, and better app experiences attract more users to transition from novelty to daily use.

04 Conclusion

Seven years have passed since the first foldable smartphones appeared. In that time, the category has evolved from a technical verification of "can it fold?" to a scenario exploration of "what do you do with it folded?" Apple's entry is not an endpoint but a new starting point.

For a new category like this, its "coming of age" is never defined by a single product selling out. It happens when the entire supply chain begins to make long-term investments in it. When supply chain companies are willing to dedicate specialized production lines and R&D resources to foldables, that is when the category truly has the foundation to "grow up."

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