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Commerzbank raises year-end European gas price forecast to €75/MWh
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On September 11, Commerzbank forecast that European benchmark TTF gas prices will reach €75 per megawatt-hour by year-end, significantly up from its previous forecast of €50/MWh, with current prices around €81/MWh. Analyst Norman Liebke stated that while a physical shortage of natural gas in Europe is unlikely, competition for LNG is expected to remain intense, particularly after Qatar sharply cut its gas production and exports. Most of Qatar's remaining LNG cargoes are being shipped to Asian countries such as India and to Persian Gulf coastal nations, with shipments to Europe effectively halted. Liebke noted that LNG has limited alternative export routes compared to crude oil, increasing Europe's vulnerability to supply changes. He added that as the EU phases out imports of Russian LNG and pipeline gas starting in 2027, the outlook for European gas supply may tighten further.
Source report
On September 11, European natural gas prices are expected to remain elevated. Commerzbank forecasts that the European benchmark TTF gas price will reach €75 per megawatt-hour (MWh) by year-end, significantly higher than its previous forecast of €50/MWh. Currently, TTF gas prices stand at approximately €81/MWh.
Norman Liebke, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank, stated that while a physical shortage of natural gas in Europe is unlikely, competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to remain intense, particularly after Qatar substantially cut its gas production and exports.
- Most of Qatar's remaining LNG cargoes are being shipped to Asian countries such as India and to Persian Gulf coastal nations.
- Shipments to Europe have effectively halted.
Unlike crude oil, LNG has limited alternative export routes, further increasing Europe's vulnerability to supply changes. Liebke noted that as the EU phases out imports of Russian LNG and pipeline gas starting in 2027, the outlook for European gas supply may tighten even further.
Source
thsWestern