SpaceX gets bullish Wall Street price target of $220 from Pivotal Research for end-2027
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Pivotal Research Group initiated coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with a Buy rating and a year-end 2027 price target of $220, implying roughly 50% upside from the current trading price of around $146, according to a research note shared with TheStreet. Analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak's bullish thesis hinges entirely on SpaceX's Starship achieving 20 to 50 flights per vehicle with inexpensive refurbishment and rapid turnaround, which could reduce launch costs by over 90%. The firm projects revenue rising from $46.6 billion in 2026 to $118.2 billion in 2027, with adjusted EBITDA more than doubling. However, Pivotal assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario of $75 per share if Starship fails to meet reusability targets on schedule. The article notes that Wlodarczak ranks 3,359th out of 12,514 analysts on TipRanks with a 51% success rate. SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, and its stock has experienced volatility, surging to $225.64 before losing half its value.
Source report
Author: Mwangi Enos Source: TheStreet Read Time: 5 min
SpaceX isn't done making history. September 9 marked another important date for SpaceX shareholders, due to its unique share-unlock structure.
The catalyst? Equity issuance.
SpaceX has given investors plenty to argue about since its June 12 IPO. The stock surged to $225.64 before losing half its value, ran into a growing lockup overhang, and somehow even fell after delivering its first earnings beat. Lately, it has looked like the shorts have had more to say than the buyers.
Beginning September 7, however, we looked at SpaceX from a different angle, based on a research note shared with TheStreet.
For the first time, this firm has laid out a detailed, analytically bullish case for the stock. They decided to ignore the short-term focus and edge toward the longer-term focus of what SpaceX could look like once the post-IPO noise settles.
Pivotal Research Initiates Coverage with $220 Price Target
Pivotal Research Group initiated coverage of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) with a Buy rating and a year-end 2027 price target of $220, according to the note.
The stock trades around $146, meaning Pivotal's target implies approximately 50% upside over roughly 15 months.
Analyst Credentials: Pivotal's analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak ranked 3,359th out of 12,514 Wall Street analysts on TipRanks, with a 51% success rate. Not a top-tier call by credentials, but the analysis itself is still worth reading carefully.
The Single SpaceX Variable Pivotal's Entire Thesis Depends On
Pivotal's investment case is simple in what it is betting on. Everything — from the valuation to the revenue projections and the long-term cash flows — rests on just one engineering milestone:
Starship completing 20 to 50 flights per vehicle with inexpensive refurbishment and rapid turnaround.
If SpaceX achieves that reusability target, Pivotal estimates launch costs could fall by more than 90%.
That would change the economics of nearly everything SpaceX does:
- Expanding Starlink more cheaply
- Making orbital AI infrastructure viable
- Transforming the company's cost structure from one of the most capital-intensive in technology to one of the most cost-efficient delivery mechanisms ever built
If Starship does not achieve that reusability target on schedule, the $220 target evaporates.
Pivotal assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario worth $75 per share — approximately 50% below current levels, underscoring the binary nature of this investment.
Recent Progress: Q2 2026 Flight Tests
In the most recent first-ever public earnings report, meaningful progress was shown in SpaceX's Q2 2026 flight tests:
- Flight 12: Completed Starship V3's first suborbital mission with a precision landing of the upper stage.
- Flight 13: Achieved all objectives, deployed 20 production V3 satellites, demonstrated an in-space Raptor engine relight, and executed a soft splashdown with an intact heatshield.
At least there is a footing Pivotal Research is basing its argument on.
Revenue Projections and Capital Required
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | |--------|------|------| | Revenue | $46.6 billion | $118.2 billion | | Adjusted EBITDA | $11.2 billion | $22.3 billion |
Launch Projections:
- Starship-powered launches expected to grow from approximately 110 in 2027 to more than 3,200 by 2035
- Cargo delivered to orbit projected to climb from 2,360 metric tons in 2026 to more than 500,000 metric tons by 2035
Related Reading:
- SpaceX Latest News and Stories
- SpaceX is now in your 401(k), and Musk is the risk
Source
Yahoo FinanceWestern