Geopolitical Futures: AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt, but fundamental shift in German national interest toward Russia unlikely without radical changes

After World War II, Germany was divided into two parts. East Germany was controlled by the Soviet Union, while West Germany was firmly in the Western camp. Moscow and Washington both imposed their principles on their respective clients, the most notable of which in West Germany was "Never Again."

That notion became part of German culture. Never Again did not simply mean that there would never again be a Nazi government; it meant that the very concept of a unique German national interest would not arise again. In its place would be a general European interest.

In the east, national interest became Soviet interest. In the west, Germany evolved into a liberal democracy, and German national interest was based on the liberal democracies that dominated European life. It was the foundation of German national policy. In that sense, Germany's national interest was the same as the interests of the nations that had occupied it and created NATO and, later, the European Union. The idea of a unique German national interest was repulsive to Germans. That a political party would advocate for a German national interest was seen as a violation of the Never Again doctrine.

The AfD's Electoral Victory

And yet Alternative for Germany (AfD), a staunchly nationalist party that also wants closer relations with Russia, won elections last week in Saxony-Anhalt. That such a party would evolve was inevitable, particularly in what was once East Germany, where Never Again was not so much a moral principle but an imposed reality.

Shifting Generational Burdens

After all, World War II ended over 80 years ago. The generation that created Hitler is long dead. The generation that fought for Germany in World War II is also gone, or the people are at least in their late 90s. The generation that is the equivalent of our Boomers and experienced the Cold War is also aging. The generations that now make up German politics do not bear the burdens of prior generations, including those who lived through World War II, Nazism and the Cold War. And with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia's withdrawal from the east, memories of the Cold War are fading too.

Thus, what was not conceivable after World War II is now emerging. Germany is a nation, and like any other nation, it is free to pursue its own national interest, unburdened by the shame of Nazism or Soviet occupation.

Implications and Reactions

AfD's victory, while in a minor regional election, is nevertheless shocking to Germany and its allies. Advocating a better relationship with Russia, for example, runs counter to the wishes of its allies in NATO and the European Union. In this, I must confess that my parents, both of whom survived concentration camps (yes, there was a holocaust), would be appalled by my calmness at the re-emergence of a Germany pursuing its own interests, but it was inevitable. As was my own ability not to be appalled. The sins of the fathers may be visited on their sons but not on their grandsons and great-grandsons.

The idea of Germany having closer ties to Russia is unsettling, particularly in Poland. But it must be borne in mind that thus far AfD has won one election in one region. Germany is not Saxony-Anhalt, and the geopolitical process of aligning with Russia is far too complex and potentially dangerous to be likely, unless Russia redefines its own national interest, which I think is more likely than a fundamental change in the German national interest.

Conclusion

All nations have sins they must live with and try to put behind them, although I will say that Germany's sins must never be forgotten, even if they fade from memory. For those of us alive now, that Germany would evolve to this point was inevitable, but consider how little has actually changed based on this one election. And what AfD says today about Russia will not come true without radical geopolitical shifts in both German and Russian interests. Such shifts do not seem likely at this point, even though they have happened in both nations in the past.