Wire flash
FinanceFed begins 2-day meeting; markets see 68.5% chance of rate hold
Editorial responsibility
- No named human review is recorded for this page.
- Source reporting is collected, normalized, translated or condensed automatically when needed.
- Automatically published source-backed update
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a decision on interest rates expected Wednesday. Markets assign 68.5% odds that the Fed will hold rates steady, but 31.5% odds of a surprise hike due to inflationary pressures from the war in Iran and AI-related bottlenecks. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is reforming the institution by reducing communication with markets, aiming for more internal debate at FOMC meetings. Officials remain divided on whether to hike rates this year, making the decision a close call.
Source report
Updated: Today at 10:00 AM UTC
Source: Yahoo Finance Date: Tue, July 28, 2026 at 7:18 AM PDT Read time: 1 min
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, culminating with an interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The Fed's next move — to hold or hike — remains a close call.
Markets expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged, but inflationary pressures arising from the war in Iran and AI bottlenecks could prompt officials to opt for a surprise hike. Bond traders placed 68.5% odds that the Fed will hold rates steady and 31.5% odds that it will hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool on Tuesday morning.
The Fed's decision is opaque not only due to the balance of economic forces; it's also by design. As new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reforms the institution, he's looking to bring the Fed back to an era of less communication with markets on the path of policy.
Warsh has repeatedly said he wants a "good family fight" at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. He's likely to get that, as officials remain divided on whether to hike interest rates this year.
View Comments
Source
Yahoo FinanceWestern
Part of this Story
Kevin Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Faces Rate Decision Amid Inflation Pressure