Russia modifies ballistic missiles to evade Ukraine's air defenses in terminal phase

T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

According to Ukraine's political leaders, Russia launched one of its largest ballistic missile attacks since the beginning of its full-scale invasion nearly four and a half years ago, over the weekend of July 18–19, 2026.

The acting prime minister described it as the largest attack ever, though the Ukraine Air Force (PSU) noted that slightly larger combined totals of missiles and drones had been fired against the country in the past.

T-90M tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Massive Combined Strike

The PSU stated that Russia's military had launched "a massive combined strike against Ukraine using attack UAVs and various types of air- and ground-launched missiles" overnight on Saturday and into Sunday. The primary target, as has been the case throughout the war, was the capital city of Kyiv.

• President Volodymyr Zelensky reported: "The enemy launched more than 40 missiles of various types – most of them against the capital – and 120 attack drones."
• Andriy Sybiha, acting minister of foreign affairs, stated that Russia had launched "around four dozen" missiles.
• Sybiha noted that these missiles had been modified so that, in the terminal phase, they descend on a ballistic trajectory to complicate interception. He called it the "largest number of ballistic missiles since the start of the war."

Russian T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Modifying Trajectories

The volume of missile intercepts in this war has generated more data on the performance of defense systems like the US-made Patriot than all previous conflicts combined. Russia's missile designers have exploited this data to modify weapons so they can evade Patriot and other missile defense platforms.

According to a report from October 2025, these modifications alter ballistic missile control systems so that missiles no longer travel on predictable trajectories as per their original design. Russia's missile forces have been devising methods that cause missiles to depart from their normal descent aspect as they approach targets.

These modified missiles then:

• Dive at steep angles
• Make rapid maneuvers that "confuse and avoid" Patriot system interceptors

One Ukrainian official described these modifications as a "game-changer for Russia." At the time of the October 2025 report, four Russian Iskander-M missiles were fired, and all four hit their targets due to these modifications.

Iskander ballistic missile. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Ukrainian Adaptation

Russia is not the only side adapting to new challenges. In June 2026, Russia launched 5,929 aerial attack weapons against Ukrainian cities and other targets. However, thanks to modifications made by Ukrainian forces to their air defenses, they destroyed or used electronic warfare to disable 5,277 of those weapons — an overall intercept success rate of nearly 90 percent.

The Air and Missile Defense Deficit

The Ukraine Air Defense Forces (PPO) reportedly "shot down or neutralized 126 targets, including 18 missiles and 108 unmanned aerial vehicles," the service said. However, 23 missiles and 10 drones reached and hit 20 different targets, according to the Ukrainian military.

• Strikes were reported in five districts of Kyiv.
• State emergency services reported one person killed and 16 wounded in the capital.
• Across the entire country, municipalities reported a total of 16 civilians killed and 77 injured in the past 24 hours from Russian drone and missile attacks.
• The majority of casualties were in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed it had carried out a "massive strike" and used the standard line that these were attacks on Ukrainian "defense industry facilities and logistics centers in the city of Kyiv."

Russia's S-400 Air Defense System. Image: Russian Military.

Civilian Impact

Ukraine's Ambassador to Australia and New Zealand, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, contradicted the Russian Defense Ministry's statement. He was in Kyiv this weekend and posted a video from the site of the latest Russian attack near the Lukyanivska underground station, showing the devastation from the missile strike.

This area was once known for its defense plants; however, since the war began, most have been bombed into non-existence, making a missile attack on this district nothing less than unjustified wanton destruction. Russia continues to hit this site regardless and has succeeded only in obliterating the McDonald's housed in the same building as the underground station on multiple occasions.