German FM Wadephul sees Finland's Russia preparations, warns Russia could wage large-scale war by 2029

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) during a visit to the Finnish-Russian border. Source: Sebastian Christoph Gollnow/dpa

Closed borders, shelters for hundreds of thousands, and a society that understands security as a community task: In Finland, Foreign Minister Wadephul witnessed how the country is preparing for a conflict with Russia.

As Johann Wadephul was briefed by Lieutenant Colonel Antti Virta, deputy commander of the Finnish Border Guard District of Northeast, on the situation at NATO's eastern flank, a diplomatically negotiated formula became tangible.

A week ago, the alliance stated in a declaration at its summit in Ankara, Turkey, that Russia is "a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security." Now the German Foreign Minister stood in Vaalimaa, a once-prosperous border crossing between Finland and Russia—and saw what the phrase means in reality. The blue-and-white barriers are down, barbed wire and cameras are installed everywhere, the checkpoint is permanently closed and heavily guarded—just like the entire nearly 1,400-kilometer border between the two countries, the longest of any NATO state with Russia.

"Standing here," said Wadephul, "you immediately understand: This border is far more than the border between Finland and Russia. It is also our external border. Whoever protects it protects the security of Europe."

An officer of the Finnish Border Guard at a closed border crossing. Source: Sebastian Christoph Gollnow/dpa

Hybrid Threats and Border Closure

The decision to close the border to passenger traffic at the end of 2023 was due to "hybrid attacks from the Russian side," explained Wadephul's Finnish counterpart, Elina Valtonen, in fluent German. Moscow had "instrumentalized people from third countries," brought them from all over the world to the Finnish border, and had them submit asylum applications. Despite diplomatic efforts, Russia showed no willingness to stop. "On the contrary: the danger persists," said Valtonen.

Broader Threats from Moscow

That is just one of the threats emanating from Moscow that the Finns reported. In Vaalimaa and Helsinki, Wadephul learned about:

• The reorganization of Russian military districts along NATO borders
• Cyberattacks
• Drone overflights
• Attempts to influence elections to weaken support for Ukraine and strengthen pro-Russian forces

Critical Infrastructure and the Shadow Fleet

During a visit to the border patrol ship "Turva" in the port of the Finnish capital, the German minister was given a detailed list of attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea—on data cables, power connections, and gas pipelines. There are also regular disruptions to GPS satellites.

On the border patrol ship "Turva." Source: picture alliance/AA/photothek.de/Thomas Trutschel

The coast guard demonstrated to Wadephul in a short exercise at sea how the Finns deal with the Russian shadow fleet: Heavily armed soldiers rappelled from a helicopter to take control of a ship. This actually happened in December when a shadow fleet freighter was apprehended by the "Turva" and escorted to a Finnish port.

Assessments of Russian Threat

None of this is new to Wadephul. When he speaks with his colleagues in the Nordic states, the Baltics, or Poland, assessments of when Moscow might attempt military provocations against a NATO state on the eastern flank vary only in details. The Poles say the coming months could become critical. Others, like the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer, state "that Russia will be capable of waging a large-scale war against a NATO member by 2029."