Which direction is Trump’s job approval rating headed?

This analysis examines President Donald Trump's job approval rating trajectory in mid-2026, ahead of the midterm elections. After starting his second term at 52%, Trump's approval fell to a low of 38% in late May before recovering slightly to 40%. The article notes that while the decline has halted, a rebound is unlikely due to resurgent negative issues: renewed conflict with Iran (17 U.S. service members killed since February), rising gas prices to $4 per gallon, and controversy over ICE traffic stops after two fatal shootings by agents. Republicans, defending narrow majorities, are encouraged by slight improvement in generic ballot polling but face traditional midterm headwinds. Trump is currently underwater by 22 points, worse than his 20-point deficit at the lowest point of his first term. The piece warns that policy decisions may squander goodwill from the World Cup and America 250 celebrations.